Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

1. Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty Cedar River Sockeye Hatchery Proposed Adaptive Management Plan

2. Landsburg Dam Prior to fish passage improvements

3. Salmon Life Cycle Courtesy:Bellevue Utilities

4. Sockeyerearing area Blockageto sockeye Natural spawning area

5. Project Goals • Meet sockeye mitigation concerns • Provide additional fishing opportunity • Avoid or minimize adverse effects

6. Project Background • Mitigation responsibility to compensate for lost production potential due to blockage to sockeye at Landsburg Dam • Sockeye fry hatchery improves survival allowing more fish to be produced than would be the case naturally. • Hatcheries are being evaluated due to concerns about undesirable impacts on natural spawners

7. Challenge • How to achieve project benefits while minimizing risk in face of uncertainty? • For this project - How to operate a hatchery to produce more sockeye and provide additional fishing opportunity while minimizing risks to naturally spawning salmon populations and ecosystem?

8. Approach • Links hatchery production with natural production • Emphasis on maintaining reproductive fitness • Emphasis on limiting risks to naturally reproducing stocks • Commitment to adaptive management

9. Adaptive Management Program • Designed to: • force definition of key uncertainties • focus limited monitoring funds on addressing key uncertainties • incorporate learning into future project decisions • incorporate scientific and public input in open decision making process

10. Uncertainty • Hatchery effects are subject to scientific debate; many variables • Project has 12 years of prototype testing; however, future conditions will change, leading to uncertainty of future effects • Lake Washington ecosystem is changing

11. Uncertainties • What are they? • Which are the most critical to meeting goals? • Production • Effects

12. Examples of Uncertainties • Effects on reproductive potential of sockeye that spawn naturally • Impacts on chinook • Sufficiency of food supply in Lake Washington to support more fry • Effects of release strategies on survival rates

13. Addressing Uncertainty • Formulating testable hypotheses • Monitoring and research • Analyses • Project guidance • Updating program as questions are addressed and new ones develop

14. Examples of Decisions • Level of hatchery production • Allocation of resources to monitoring activity • Production strategies

15. DecisionsWho needs to be involved? • Agencies (federal, state and local) • Tribes • Stakeholders (fishing groups, wild fish advocates) • Public

16. DecisionsHow to enhance credibility and acceptance? • Scientific Guidance • Clear role for scientists in decision-making process • Technical Work Group • selected for knowledge in applicable disciplines • Independent Science Advisors • used to provide peer review

17. DecisionsHow to enhance credibility and acceptance? • Public Involvement • Access to data • Open meetings • Public deliberation and decision-making • Public input

19. Summary • Natural resource projects like this are experiments - some learning must occur by doing • Risk can be analyzed and incorporated into decisions (managed) despite uncertainty

20. Summary • Learning and decision-making processes are complex and require a structure that encourages: • participation by affected parties • open access to information • sound scientific process • transparent process that incorporates evolving knowledge into project decisions