1. Global observations and synthesis

1. POS panel report John MarshallSumant NigamMike Alexander Jim CartonSarah Gillie Jay McCrearyHoward CattleKathie KellyWalt Robinson also in attendance POS panel went through priorities identified at last year’s summit and discussed them in the light of the three general themes 1. Global observations and synthesis 2. Decadal variability and trends 3. Weather trends and climate extremes These map on to emerging USClivar and International Clivar foci

2. Specific Action items identified • US Climate Reference Network Sumant Nigam Sumant to talk to Todd/Leetma wrt engaging Tom Karl and his program in to Clivar Sarah Gillie • Satellite observations of ocean Letter to be sent to Daniel Jacobs, chair of NASA earth system subcommittee - take advise from Eric Lindstrom, Jay McCreary • Argo Sarah Gillie Uncertain long-term status – need to make stronger connections to applications (ECMWF for SI? Climate prediction center at NCEP) and operations. • Carbon hydrography program Terry Joyce Data not being released by Europeans/Japanese – write to International Clivar office – Howard Cattle • Ocean state estimation/observations Oversight role to be taken by POS? - but membership not broad enough Need to make transition to operational settings Connect to Intl Clivar (Stammer)

3. Working groups The following working groups were seriously discussed: Sig Schubert Drought – will be set up Polar climate change Sarah Gillie Cooperation between CLIVAR and polar science programs (e.g. sea ice, annular modes, southern ocean, hydrological cycle, ocean basin exchanges, polar origins of mid-latitude variability) A community exists – Sarah to organize Decadal variability and trends Needs to be a broad inclusive theme, embracing all modes of variability and placed in the context of paleo-climate and future climate change. Proposed working group on one (or two?) aspects of the decadal problem decadal modulation of ENSOrole of Indian Ocean in global climatesea levelrole of MOC in climate variability support from Vikram Mehta, & PPAI panel Jay McCreary John Marshall Ocean observations/synthesis Jim Carton We will not push this but significant issues are involved

4. Membership Suggested Easterling, Tziperman and Menemenlis rotate off • Invite • Dave Thompson (Atmospheric observations, annular modes)Axel Timmerman (climate, paleo, enso modeling)Rick Lumpkin (ocean observations) • plus one further meteorologist, to join Note: No-one on POS is a member of, e.g.Mike Johnson’s panel on ocean obs or Detlef Stammer Intl Clivar group on ocean synthesis

5. Panel actions in next year Help sharpen activities in these three areas: 1. Global observations and synthesis 2. Decadal variability and trends 3. Weather trends and climate extremes Set up and drive forward working groups on 2. and 3.

6. Now proposing 3 specific thrusts: 1. Ocean observations/synthesis and predictability Estimating the current state of the ocean, the status of the MOC, the path of the Gulf Stream, the extent of the warm pool, etc, etc, requires combining the developing global ocean observing capability with ocean data assimilation systems and ‘projecting’ them out in to the future. There would be major and immediate applications of ocean predictability to fisheries and marine ecosystems. Moreover, the ocean state provides initial conditions for decadal forecasts; ocean predictability is also a pre-requisite for atmospheric predictability on decadal timescales. The basic elements are in place (ocean obs, models and synthesis methodologies) and moving them on to an operational footing must be a high priority for the next five+ years. However, the global instrumental record dates back only to about 1992 (the start of WOCE) and is in perpetual danger of being significantly reduced in scope at any time. A science focus on decadal ocean predictability could help secure the observational base on which everything depends.

7. 2. Decadal variability and predictability A Clivar focus on decadal climate variability of the coupled system and the separation of anthropogenic trends from natural variability is proposed. Leveraging off the substantial investment already made in: (i) ocean observations and synthesis methods and (ii) the development of IPCC-class coupled climate models global prototype predictability systems should be set up and used to make projections about the evolution of the `slow' components of the climate system, such as the MOC, AMO, PDV, ice cover etc. The scope of the activity should be global, but focused activities on particular aspects would be encouraged – e.g decadal modulation of ENSO, the role of the MOC in climate variability etc etc. These might be addressed by working groups. A research program on basic dynamics and science questions related to the decadal predictability of the coupled system, on analyzing 20thC coupled climate simulations and on decadal predictions, should be implemented at the national labs and in academia, with links to the international community.

8. 3. Weather trends and climate extremes DroughtA physical understanding of the causes of long-term drought in a number of regions around the world is emerging. There are, however, still major uncertainties about the relative roles of the different ocean basins, the strength of the land-atmosphere feedbacks, the role of deep soil moisture, the nature of long term SST variability, the impact of global change, as well as fundamental issues about predictability of drought on these long time scales. The working group will help focus modeling and observational studies to address these issues: activities that span across a number of major modeling groups, universities, and programs including US CLIVAR and GEWEX. It will also help focus enabling activities such as the development of improved long-term reanalyzes of all components of the Earth System. Hurricanes…. Storm tracks..