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Chapter 7: Probability

Chapter 7: Probability. 7.1 Randomness, probability, and simulation. Deck of Cards. How many cards are in a deck? Four suites-spades, hearts, clubs, and diamonds-hearts and diamonds are red, clubs and spades are black 13 cards in each suite-ace, 2-10, jack, queen, king

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Chapter 7: Probability

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  1. Chapter 7: Probability 7.1 Randomness, probability, and simulation

  2. Deck of Cards • How many cards are in a deck? • Four suites-spades, hearts, clubs, and diamonds-hearts and diamonds are red, clubs and spades are black • 13 cards in each suite-ace, 2-10, jack, queen, king • Total of 52 cards-we ignore the jokers • How many total outcomes?

  3. Deck of Cards

  4. Deck of Cards • What is the probability of getting an ace? Number of desirable outcomes Number of total outcomes • What is the probability of getting a heart? • What is the probability of getting a red? • What is the probability of getting a 9? • What is the probability of getting a 4 and then without replacing the card, drawing again and getting a king?

  5. Let’s Make ADeal • 3 Doors, behind one door is a prize, the other two are empty • Contestant picks one door, then game show host opens one of the other doors which is empty • The contestant has the option then to switch their choice of doors or stay with their original choice • What is the probability of getting a prize if the contestant stays with their original choice? • To check, let’s play “Let’s Make a Deal” to test what the probability is

  6. Myths about Probability • Probability does not change • Myth of short run regularity • Probability predicts over the long run not the short run • Myth of law of averages • Myth of the surprise meeting

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