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Estimating regional sources and sinks of CO 2 for North America

Estimating regional sources and sinks of CO 2 for North America. Using NOAA-CMDL measurements and the TM5 model. Wouter Peters, NOAA CMDL TRANSCOM May 13th, 2003. Acknowledgements. Maarten Krol Pieter Tans Lori Bruhwiler Sander Houweling Peter Bergamaschi Peter van Velthoven

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Estimating regional sources and sinks of CO 2 for North America

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  1. Estimating regional sources and sinks of CO2 for North America Using NOAA-CMDL measurements and the TM5 model Wouter Peters, NOAA CMDL TRANSCOM May 13th, 2003

  2. Acknowledgements Maarten Krol Pieter Tans Lori Bruhwiler Sander Houweling Peter Bergamaschi Peter van Velthoven Frank Dentener Jan Fokke Meirink John Miller

  3. Outline • My background • The TM5 global & regional model • The expanded NOAA-CMDL network • Plans for inversions • Kalman filter • 4d-var

  4. My background • Master’s in meteorology and physical oceanography from University of Utrecht • Thesis work on LBA-CLAIRE, airborne campaign in Suriname, South America. • PhD on tropospheric ozone in the tropics with Jos Lelieveld and Maarten Krol.

  5. TM3 global model • 5x3.75 degrees, 19 layers • ECMWF meteorology (1979-1993, and 1994-1999) • Full chemistry (O3-NOx-CO-CH4, lumped NMHC’s) + coupled photolysis • Extensive budgets of all processes • Fast parallel version (<2 CPU hrs/yr) allowing multi-year simulations or sensitivity tests

  6. TM5: the next generation • New advection algorithm (Berkvens, Botchev, Krol, Verwer, 2001) allows online nesting of fine-scaled grids within a global domain.

  7. TM5 model – coarse grid

  8. TM5 model – medium grid

  9. TM5 model – fine grid

  10. TM5 model – vertical resolution 25 vertical layers ~ 8 layers stratosphere ~ 12 layers free troposphere Hybrid coordinates values for US standard atmosphere ~ 5 layers PBL

  11. TM5 • Contributions from IMAU, KNMI, JRC, and in the near future NOAA. • Most important improvements: meteorological input, coding, chemical boundary conditions. • Special emphasis: ERA40=> re-analysis of ECMWF for 1957-2001. • Resolution up to ECMWF operational

  12. TM5 – latest developments- • Adjoint version of TM5 under con struction • 4d-var scheme from ECMWF implemented and working • Kalman filter (Baker, Bruhwiler, Tans) to be implemented

  13. 222Rn simulations at different resolutions Courtesy: H. Sartorius IAR-Freiburg

  14. My plans • Forward modeling of CO2 + isotopes, SF6 • Inverse modeling of CO2 + isotopes • Regional scale sources/sinks over the US • Using vertical profile/ tall tower data • Possibly assist in planning and optimizing network design/sampling strategies

  15. NOAA CMDL goals ??????

  16. Current network

  17. 2005 network ?

  18. 2010 network ??

  19. Proposed TM5 grid

  20. Proposed TM5 grid Denver Aspen Grand Junction Pueblo Durango

  21. Regions for inversion

  22. Fixed-lag Kalman smoother • ‘Batch’ inversion technique using n-months of information at a time (3 < n < 9) • Calculates new fluxes and error estimates for xJ=0 (where x= fluxes and J = cost function) • Balances prior flux estimates against new information from observations using prior flux and model-data mismatch • Computationally efficient for multi-decadal inversions • Details: David Baker’s talk tomorrow

  23. 4d-var • Uses steepest descend and the calculated value of xJ to minimize J • value of xJ calculated by adjoint model • Iterative scheme to converge to xJ = 0 • Useful for short time periods and many observations

  24. Gt/yr Gt/yr Seasonal CO2 Flux Estimates Land NCEP (1984-2000) ECMWF (1981-1993) PRIOR Ocean

  25. Annual Average Flux Estimates Land NCEP (1984-2000) ECMWF (1981-1992) PRIOR Ocean

  26. Annual Average Flux Estimates with Cyclic Meteorology Land NCEP (1984-2000) NCEP (1990) PRIOR Ocean

  27. Interface: Mixture between ‘fine’ and ‘coarse’: = + Interface Zoom

  28. XYZV VZYX xyzv vzyx vzyx xyzv Write BC Interface Zoom Update parent

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