Developing National Power in Space: Organizational Options

1. Developing National Power in Space: Organizational Options Dr. Brent D. Ziarnick Air Command and Staff College Future In-Space Operations (FISO) 26 June 2019 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Air University, the Air Force, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.

2. General Theory of Space Power

3. Purpose of the GTSP • “Theory exists so that one need not start afresh each time sorting out the material and plowing through it, but will find it ready to hand and in good order. It is meant to educate the mind of the future commander, or, more accurately, to guide him in his self-education…” - Clausewitz • Space theory for space enthusiasts by a space officer • New language • Ends-agnostic • Explain the players in building space power • Space theory capable of describing future as well as present and past • Realist theory – More power to state is good

4. What is Space Power? • Space power is the ability to do something (anything) in space • Raw space power is ability only • Space power put to different uses (military, economic, political space power) are subsets of raw space power • Space power is fungible • Space power is ALL of a nation’s space capabilities!!

5. The Building Blocks • “In these three things – production, with the necessity of exchanging products, shipping, whereby the exchange is carried on, and colonies, which facilitate and enlarge the operations of shipping and tend to protect it by multiplying points of safety – is to be found the key to much of the history, as well as the policy, of nations bordering upon the sea… This order is that of actual relative importance to the nation of the three elements – commercial, political, military. ” – Alfred Thayer Mahan, Influence of Sea Power Upon History

6. The Building Blocks • “In these three things – production, with the necessity of exchanging products, shipping, whereby the exchange is carried on, and colonies, which facilitate and enlarge the operations of shipping and tend to protect it by multiplying points of safety – is to be found the key to much of the history, as well as the policy, of nations bordering upon the sea… This order is that of actual relative importance to the nation of the three elements – commercial, political, military. ” – Alfred Thayer Mahan, Influence of Sea Power Upon History

7. Logic vs Grammar of Space Power • Grammar – How space power is built and developed to support space activities (Means) • Logic – How space power can be used to further objectives and be put to productive use -economic, political, and military – (Ways)

8. Logic vs Grammar of Space Power • Grammar – How space power is built and developed to support space activities (Means) • Logic – How space power can be used to further objectives and be put to productive use -economic, political, and military – (Ways)

9. Two Types of Power • Grammar of Power – Operational Mastery of the Environment • Logic of Power – Defeating a Thinking Adversary • Access to the sea is limited by politics and military force • Access to space is limited by environment and technology

10. Grammar of Space Power Production ACCESS Shipping Colonies

11. Grammar Profile View Grammar Flows Bottom-Up ACCESS Result Combinations Elements Shipping, Colonies Production Foundation Principal Conditions (Enablers) of Space Power

12. Logic of Space Power Economic ABILITY Military Political

13. Logic Profile View Logic flows Top-Down ABILITY Raw Capability Transformers Capability Applied to National Interest Economic Power Military, Political Power

14. Mapping Space Efforts 15 • Adv. Prop and Radiation • Sat. Maintn. • Mx • RTF LL • Space Wing Ops • Commercial ISS • Spaceport • Apollo Astronauts • Weather • Space Robotics/Debris • International Prog • NASA Explore • Innovation and Pers • Innovation Initiat. • Cont. Plan. • GSE • UAS Interference • Space Coast • Insp Nxt Gen • Transform. Space Leg. • Launching Leaders 16 9 2 9 10 17 6 1 4 8 19 21 18 3 3 11 14 13 5 12 20

15. Logic Example:What is Grand Strategy? • “The theory, or logic, that binds a country’s highest interests to its daily interactions with the world” – Hal Brands • What kind of space grand strategy should America have? • Opportunity: New USG space organizations may allow re-alignment of US space efforts into a coherent US grand strategy for space

16. Four Functions of Grand Strategy • Grand Strategy provides a guide for the allocation of scarce resources; • Grand strategy helps inter-agency actors to coordinate their activities; • Grand strategy communicates interests, so as to deter and persuade potential adversaries and reassure allies and friends; • Grand strategy assists internal accountability, permitting criticism and correction.

17. A Grand Strategy for Space The Whole-of-Nation American Space Effort Shall: • Defend the Earth • Mine the Sky • Settle the Universe … for the benefit of the American people

18. A Grand Strategy for Space The Whole-of-Nation American Space Effort Shall: • Defend the Earth (military guidance) • Implied task: defend America, interests • Mine the Sky (economic guidance) • Implied task: USG assist US commerce • Settle the Universe (political guidance) … for the benefit of the American people • Implied end state: make US citizens rich, safe, and spacefaring! The Power of Space can make all three happen!

19. Four Functions of Grand Strategy • Grand Strategy provides a guide for the allocation of scarce resources; • Grand strategy helps inter-agency actors to coordinate their activities; • Grand strategy communicates interests, so as to deter and persuade potential adversaries and reassure allies and friends; • Grand strategy assists internal accountability, permitting criticism and correction.

20. Four Functions of Grand Strategy • Grand Strategy provides a guide for the allocation of scarce resources; • Grand strategy helps inter-agency actors to coordinate their activities; • Grand strategy communicates interests, so as to deter and persuade potential adversaries and reassure allies and friends; • Grand strategy assists internal accountability, permitting criticism and correction.

21. Four Functions of Grand Strategy • Grand Strategy provides a guide for the allocation of scarce resources; • Grand strategy helps inter-agency actors to coordinate their activities; • Grand strategy communicates interests, so as to deter and persuade potential adversaries and reassure allies and friends; • Grand strategy assists internal accountability, permitting criticism and correction.

22. Four Functions of Grand Strategy • Grand Strategy provides a guide for the allocation of scarce resources; • Grand strategy helps inter-agency actors to coordinate their activities; • Grand strategy communicates interests, so as to deter and persuade potential adversaries and reassure allies and friends; • Grand strategy assists internal accountability, permitting criticism and correction.

23. Four Functions of Grand Strategy • Grand Strategy provides a guide for the allocation of scarce resources; • Grand strategy helps inter-agency actors to coordinate their activities; • Grand strategy communicates interests, so as to deter and persuade potential adversaries and reassure allies and friends; • Grand strategy assists internal accountability, permitting criticism and correction.

24. Military Space – A Space-Centric Vision • https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/21/opinion-space-force-commerce-1374229

25. Interagency Planning for Space • … the Joint Force plays an essential role in securing and achieving national aims in conditions sometimes regarded as outside the military sphere: competition below the threshold of armed conflict… • The JCIC advocates better alignment of military and non-military activities.

26. National Space Council • review United States Government space policy, including long-range goals, and develop a strategy for national space activities; • develop recommendations for the President on space policy and space-related issues; • monitor and coordinate implementation of the objectives of the President’s national space policy and strategy; • foster close coordination, cooperation, and technology and information exchange among the civil, national security, and commercial space sectors; • facilitate the resolution of differences concerning major space and space-related policy matters.

27. United States Space Command • Functional, not Geographic Command • Responsibilities of USSPACECOM: • All general responsibilities of a Unified Combatant Command • Space-related responsibilities assigned to USSTRATCOM • Joint Force Provider and Joint Force Trainer for Space Operations Forces • Essentially, operational control of all military space activities

28. United States Space Corps • Protecting the Nation's interests in space and the peaceful use of space for all responsible actors, consistent with applicable law • Ensuring unfettered use of space for United States and allies; • Deterring aggression in and from space; • Projecting military power in, from, and to space in support of our Nation's interests; and • Developing, maintaining, and improving a community of professionals focused on the national security demands of the space domain.

29. Logic of Space Power Economic ABILITY Military Political

30. Logic of Space Power Economic ABILITY Military Political

31. Logic of Space Power Economic ABILITY Military Political

32. Logic of Space Power Economic ABILITY Military Political

33. Logic of Space Power Economic ABILITY NSpC Execution Military Political

34. Organizing to Harness the Power of Space

35. Required Changes to the Current State

36. A Word of Warning • “I am more afraid of our own blunders than of the enemy’s devices.” —Pericles

37. Summary • Space power is the ability to do something in space • Space power is fungible, and economic power is paramount • A Grand Strategy of harnessing the Power of Space for the benefit of the American people is a profitable one – including the individual USG space agencies • The organizations necessary to plan and execute for a US Grand Strategy already exist! • Incumbent upon US space professionals to work toward developing a US Grand Strategy in space

38. Questions Brent Ziarnick Air Command and Staff College Brent.ziarnick.2@us.af.mil