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Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction. Ken Schatten colleagues - Scherrer, Svalgaard, Wilcox, Sofia, Hoyt, Pesnell, + others. OUTLINE. Solar Forecasting use in Orbit Determination Solar Activity Prediction Difficulty: Chaos Methods of Solar Activity Prediction

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Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

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  1. Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction • Ken Schatten • colleagues - Scherrer, Svalgaard, Wilcox, Sofia, Hoyt, Pesnell, + others.

  2. OUTLINE • Solar Forecasting use in Orbit Determination • Solar Activity Prediction Difficulty: Chaos • Methods of Solar Activity Prediction • Intro to “Precursor Techniques”:A Puzzle! • Solar Precursors /SODA index • Current Status of Solar Cycle #23 • Early Prospective of Solar Cycle #24 • Conclusions

  3. Solar Activity Forecasting For Use In Orbit Determination

  4. Solar Activity Forecasting For Use In Orbit Determination

  5. Solar Activity Prediction Difficulty

  6. Real Life • Give an example or real life anecdote • Sympathize with the audience’s situation if appropriate

  7. Methods of Solar Activity Prediction : NASA panel • Even/Odd • Spectral • Recent Climatology/Climatology • Neural Networks • Precursor: Geomagnetic Precursors Solar Precursors

  8. Methods of Solar Activity Prediction • TABLE OF PREDICTED SUNSPOT #

  9. Intro to “Precursor Techniques”:A Puzzle! • Ohl, Brown and Williams found: near solar minimum, Geomagnetic Activity Fluctuations correlated with size of the next solar cycle! • A Puzzle! How could Terrestrial events affect future solar events? demanded further investigation.

  10. Solar Precursors /SODA index • General dynamo theory • MHD dynamo theory • Solar Babcock model • Solar Dynamo Method - Magnetic fields on the Sun are the precursors for future fields. This helps explain geomagnetic precursors. • SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) Index

  11. General Dynamo Theory

  12. Solar Babcock model

  13. Solar Precursors /SODA index

  14. Solar Precursors /SODA index • previous precursor method:only estimate cycle from polar field at sunspot minimum • Now continuously monitor solar dynamo oscillating between toroidal and poloidal field components • Hence learn future activity changes, as dynamo is continuously regenerated, rather than single snapshots near solar minimum.

  15. Solar Precursors /SODA index

  16. Current Status of Solar Cycle #23

  17. Current Status of Solar Cycle #23

  18. Early Prospective Solar Cycle#24

  19. Early Prospective Solar Cycle#24

  20. Conclusions • Cycle #23 is an interesting one - against Even/Odd - 1st cycle this century. • Our prediction of smaller cycle seems to be holding. • With SODA index, monitor solar dynamo oscillating toroidal and poloidal fields. • #24?- Very preliminary, but early field measurements show a rapidly rising polar field.

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