The Conventions and the Campaign

1. The Conventions and the Campaign 3/7/2013

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process • Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominating system in the context of the 2012 election

3. Office Hours • Today 11-2 • 10-11 on Friday

4. Reforming the Nominating System

5. The Major impact of the Modern Primary • Vastly diminished role for party elites • Potential for unacceptable candidates • Greater reliance on horse race coverage

6. Reforms: A Regional Primary • Advantages • Disadvantages

7. Reforms: A National Primary • Advantages • Disadvantages

8. Reforms: The Status Quo • The Parties are risk-averse • States like their privileged position • Front-loading has made a de facto national primary

9. The Three Periods of the Campaign • The Summer • The Conventions to the First Debate • The Final Month

10. First Period Summer to the Conventions

11. Etch-A-Sketch

12. What the Primaries Did to Romney • All “Unromneys were to his political right • In 2008, he was beaten from the right • He became “severely conservative”

13. Romney moved Right on • Immigration • Abortion • Health Care

14. “Everything changes,” “It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can try to shake it up and start all over again.”

15. Romney’s real Problem • He is Broke • He cannot Tap into money until after the nomination • Obama has Plenty of stored up cash.

16. Obama in the summer

17. 2012 was no 2008 2008 2012 Not as ambitious or inspiring Facing a bad economy that he was supposed to fix Facing the real possibility of being outspent • He had faced the Clinton War Machine • There was a sense of something historic • A message of Hope and Change

18. The Economy • FDR is the only one with a worse economy to win • Bush I loses with a better economy • Carter is crushed in 1980

19. Obama’s window of opportunity

20. The Window • The time between the primary and the convention • Do not let Romney grab the center • Make him a conservative with an empty core

21. Framing Romney • Two Things • Rich • Mormon • Frame him early

22. Develop a Narrative against Romney • A Rich Guy who didn’t play by the Rules • Out of touch • Flip-Floper and Bain

23. Romney as Out of Touch • Doesn’t Care about average Citizens • The Actual Quote • On Cnn

24. Attack Bain Capital • “If Mitt Romney Wins, the Middle Class Loses” • Most People Do not know about Bain • It did have some drawbacks

25. Attack The Tax Return • First response is dismissive shifty • Romney pays 15.4% on 250 million • Romney had 5 years to get this in order

26. How to Work the Message • Go negative • Spend a lot ($10 Million) • The Rich Guy Image Sticks.

27. The National Convention Not much fun anymore

28. The Old Convention • The Political Opium Den • The Role of Party Bosses • The Excitement of an unknown nominee These Days are over

29. The Goals of the Modern Convention • Nominate a candidate • Selecting a Vice-President • Introducing the Nominee to the People We know these things Already

30. The Conventions are no longer fun for Television • We used to get gavel-to-gavel coverage • Huge Audiences • Hardly anyone watches them anymore

31. What the Media Wants • A Brokered Convention • Gloom, doom, drama • They took their ball and went home

32. What the Parties Want • The convention as Infotainment • Gavel-to-Gavel advertisement

33. Scripting the convention as theatre

34. The Democratic Convention • The Location • The Goal

35. The Republican Convention • Location • Reason

36. Making it Work • Selection and Timing Of Speakers • Timing of the Convention itself (backloading)