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Recalculation of Russian GDP Series due to New Classifications

This document discusses the recalculation of the Russian GDP series due to the introduction of new classifications, including changes in accounting standards and regulations. The matrix approach is used to revise the GDP series, with main results presented.

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Recalculation of Russian GDP Series due to New Classifications

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  1. Joint UNECE / Eurostat / OECD Meeting on National Accounts (Geneva, 25 - 28 April 2006) • Item 4: Long time series when major changes occur • Recalculation of the Russian GDP Series due to Introduction of New Classifications • Irina Masakova • Rosstat

  2. Main issues • OKONKh: previously usedclassification (institutional industries) • OKVED: new classification (kinds of economic activity) • Changes in the accounting standards and regulations • Matrix approach to recalculation of the GDP series • Main results of the GDP series revision FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  3. Classification OKONKh Russian classification of the industries of the economy - OKONKH: • grouping by kinds of activities of different character • accounting unit – establishment of the enterprise realizing an homogenous activity • 800 kinds of activity FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  4. Classification OKVED Russian Classification of Kinds of Economic Activity– OKVED: • Similar toNACE • category – kind of economic activity • 1800 kinds of activity • in force since January 1, 2003; 2003-2004– the transition period; data collected by two classifications (OKONKh and OKVED) FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  5. An enterprise in the framework of OKONKh FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  6. Comparison of OKONKh and OKVED OKONKh Industry Electric power Ferrous metallurgy Machine-building and metal processing Construction materials Stand alone boilers Production of ferrous metals Steel pipes Coking industry Metal blocks production Production of light metal ware Non-metallic construction materials Underground mining of ferrous metal ores CBMining exclusive of fuels DJ Metal production and finished metal goods DFProduction of coke, oil products and nuclear materials Е - Electricity, gas, water: production and distribution D – Manufacturing С - Mining OKVED FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  7. Changes in the accounting standards and regulations Resolution on the composition of production costs Tax Code New definition of the main kind of activity FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  8. Matrix approach (1) For each А, …, Х a matrix is constructed А – volume of shipments B–changes in inventories of finished goods C – changes in unfinished production D–raw materials for tolling E–subsidies on production F–taxes on production X–output of the industry Institutional industry Pure industry X = A + B + C + D – E + F FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  9. Matrix approach (2) Output by pure industries Correction matrix Output matrix А B C D X’ X 100 +50 150 +150 250 400 150 300 200 450 Output by institutional industries Alternative data sources Enterprise statistics FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  10. Matrix approach (3) Gross Value Added Calculation GVA – gross value added IC – intermediate consumption IC_ratio – ratio of intermediate consumption to gross output IC= X’ * IC_ratio GVA=X’ - IC FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  11. Matrix approach (4) Calculation of output in constant prices + = Matrix obtained by extrapolation Matrix obtained by deflation Output in constant prices FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

  12. Main results of the GDP recalculation Real GDP to Q1 1995 OKONKhOKVEDChange 2003 I 123.0 123.0 0.0 II 130.7 131.6 0.9 III 151.3 150.8 - 0.5 IV 144.8 148.7 3.9 2004I 131.9 131.8 - 0.1 II 140.5 141.9 1.4 III 162.1 161.6 - 0.5 IV 154.6 158.7 4.1 FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE (ROSSTAT)

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