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OHIO PLANNING CONFERENCE

Florida Department of. TRANSPORTATION. OHIO PLANNING CONFERENCE. Risk Analysis/Management during Project Development Ohio Department of Transportation Hyatt Regency Columbus Columbus, Ohio.

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OHIO PLANNING CONFERENCE

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  1. Florida Department of TRANSPORTATION OHIO PLANNING CONFERENCE Risk Analysis/Management during Project Development Ohio Department of Transportation Hyatt Regency Columbus Columbus, Ohio Phillip “Greg” Davis, P.E. Specifications & Estimates Office State Estimates Engineer July 16, 2014

  2. What is Risk? • Project Management Institute (PMI) Says: “An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on the project’s objectives.” Florida Department of Transportation

  3. What is Risk Analysis? Risk-Based Estimating • Risk are clearly identified and quantified in estimate • Reasonable control of cost and schedule • Proactive Traditional Estimating • Contingency is intended to include all risk known/unknown • Little control of cost and schedule • Reactive Threat 1, 2,3,etc Contingency Opportunity 1, 2, 3, etc Florida Department of Transportation

  4. Why Risk Analysis? • Support State Transportation Improvement Program with better cost estimates and schedules • Validate cost & schedule for accurate project delivery • Replace general project contingency with risk-based cost • Enhance Risk Assessment/Mitigation activities in Project Management • Support FHWA requirement for financial plans on major projects by providing risk-based cost estimates Maximizes the Likelihood of Meeting Budget & Project Delivery Goals Florida Department of Transportation

  5. OverBudget Late Typical Project Scenario withoutRisk Analysis Construction Design Actual Cost PD&E Projected Construction Design PD&E Time • (Nationwide Trend) Florida Department of Transportation

  6. Typical Project Scenario with Risk Analysis Cost Design Construction Within Budget Actual PD&E Projected Design Construction On-time PD&E • (Nationwide Trend) Time Florida Department of Transportation

  7. Risk Management Overview Risk Management is the systematic processof identifying, assessing, and responding to risks in order to manage or reduce potential adverse effects on the achievement of project goals. Continuous Iterative Process Florida Department of Transportation

  8. When to Use Risk Management • Early planning and budgeting • Financial Planning Support • Evaluation of project delivery alternatives • Establishing Risk Allocation between parties • Preparation of project contract documents • Throughout Project Delivery Lifecycle Florida Department of Transportation

  9. Benefits of Risk Management • Builds confidence and credibility in project’s estimates • Promotes pro-active practices and early planning to meet project objectives • Facilitates development of response strategies for all threats & opportunities • Better allocation of project risks • Facilitates tracking of risks throughout the life-cycle of the project • Identification of best project delivery method Florida Department of Transportation

  10. Risk Analysis Workshops • Collaborative team approach • 2 to 3 day structured event • Identify and quantify threats and opportunities • Identify risk management strategies Florida Department of Transportation

  11. Who participates in a Risk Workshop • Project Manager and Design Team • External Subject Matter Experts • Internal and External Stakeholders • Disciplines • Construction • Bridge & Structures • Environmental • Right of Way • Geotechnical • Construction • Utilities • Local agencies • Others depending on project scope Florida Department of Transportation

  12. Objectives of a Risk Workshop • Identify project risk to account for uncertainty in scope, cost and schedule • Assess project risks by quantifying impacts to cost and schedule: • Likelihood (probability) of occurrence • Impact (if it occurs) • Analyze the project risks through modeling to develop a baseline risk assessment. • Produce a Risk Register for future monitoring of identified project risks. Florida Department of Transportation

  13. Project Team Roles in Workshops • Provide Project Information: • Project location maps, overheads, etc. • Project cost estimate and backup • Design and construction schedule or flow chart • Develop comprehensive list of risks, typically using starter risk list • Workshop Support: • Provide information on project history and key decisions as these items come up in discussion • Provide input on risk identification, quantification and mitigation Florida Department of Transportation

  14. Workshop Preparation with Project Team • Risk Analysis Process Overview • Project Overview & Identify Risk Areas • Develop Project Starter Risk List • Review Base Cost Estimate • Create a flowchart of the project schedule • Assign tasks to the project team members • Set the agenda for the workshop Florida Department of Transportation

  15. FDOT Risk Starter List Florida Department of Transportation Florida Department of Transportation

  16. Base Cost Variability Review Florida Department of Transportation

  17. Project Schedule Review Florida Department of Transportation Florida Department of Transportation

  18. Workshop Deliverables • Final report detailing the results of the workshop • Final Risk Register for Project Manager to use managing the identified risks Florida Department of Transportation

  19. Baseline Risk Assessment Results $650.0 Contingency $650.0 - $605.3 = $44.7 Florida Department of Transportation

  20. Baseline Risk Assessment Results Florida Department of Transportation

  21. Risk Register: Risk Identification Florida Department of Transportation

  22. Risk Register: Risk Quantification Florida Department of Transportation

  23. Goal of Risk Management • Risk Assessment’s aim is to assess potential impact of various scope, event, and budget risks on the project’s cost and schedule. • Risk Management’s aim is to identify opportunities and mitigation strategies to reduce both the likelihood of an event occurrence and the potential effect if it occurs. Initial Risk Impact Managed Risk Probability of Occurrence Florida Department of Transportation

  24. Statewide Risk Management Team Kurt Lieblong, PE, CVS State Project Review Administrator • Greg Davis, PE State Estimates Engineer • Rob Quigley, PE State Project Management Engineer • Tim Brock District VE/Utilities Administrator Alan Autry State Alternative Contracting Administrator Jose Theiler, AVS District Program Services Administrator Florida Department of Transportation

  25. Regional Risk Management Teams • Identify Projects for Workshops • Support Workshops with Staff & Facilities • Change culture by promoting risk • Monthly teleconferences with SRM Team • Membership in each District consists of : • District Value Engineer • District Estimates Engineer • Design Project Manager • Construction Project Manager Florida Department of Transportation

  26. Project Selection Guidelines – Risk Analysis • Complex project or total project cost greater than $500 Million – Consultant-led Independent Risk Analysis Workshop • Total project cost between $100 - $500 million - Risk Analysis Workshop using commercial risk modeling program • Projects not requiring a formal workshop - Risk Analysis Modeling Tool by HDR • Qualitative Risk Analysis - Risk Based Graded Approach Worksheet Florida Department of Transportation

  27. Implementation AssistanceLevels of Engagement Proof of Concept Pilot • Funds for piloting products to evaluate readiness for implementation • Contractor support to collect data and evaluate the application Lead Adopter Incentive • Funds for early adopters to offset implementation cost and mitigate risks • Recipients required to provide specific deliverables designed to further refine the product User Incentive • Funds for implementation support activities after early adopter use • Used to conduct internal assessments, build capacity, implement system process changes, organize peer exchanges, or offset other implementation costs

  28. October 2013 R09 Awards R09 Lead Adopter

  29. R09 implementation services provided by FHWA contractor resources • Training Course • Demonstration Workshop • Peer Exchange • Synthesis Report • Technical Assistance FHWA • Up to $100,000 per DOT to perform implementation activities such as: • Training Courses • Demonstration Workshops • Peer Exchanges • Technical Assistance • Project Development Manual Updates • Other activities as determined by the State STATE DOT R09 Lead Adopter Incentives Implementation Assistance Funding to DOT Up to $100,000 Value of FHWA Services to DOT $43,500

  30. Greg Davis, PE State Estimates Engineer greg.davis@dot.state.fl.us 850-414-4170 Florida Department of Transportation

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