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Forecasting mobile teledensity

This forecast analyzes the current trend of mobile teledensity in Pakistan, taking into account factors such as maximum mobile penetration, population, and the percentage of people owning more than one SIM card. The forecast predicts the number of mobile phone users in different categories, including the BOP and SEC A, B, & C, and calculates the total mobile teledensity in the country. The forecast also includes a logistic function to estimate the upperbound for mobile teledensity.

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Forecasting mobile teledensity

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  1. Forecasting mobile teledensity Pakistan Example

  2. Mobile TeledensityCurrent Trend

  3. Maximum mobile penetration Population > 15 = 66.41% % that own more than 1 SIM - SEC A,B & C : 14% - BOP : 12% - Weighted Average : 12.6% • Maximum mobile teledensity = 66.41(1.126) = 75% • Maximum mobile penetration = 0.75

  4. 2008 ForecastUsing T@BOP data 59% of BOP will have a mobile phone by year 2008

  5. Pakistan Population • BOP Target population = 77 million • i.e. 77 million = 58.06% of BOP population • Population > 15 = 66.41% • Therefore population > 15 = 88 million • 59% of this 88 million will have a mobile by 2008 • The vertical growth is 8,315,721 • (88 million x 59%) + 8,315,721 people at BOP will have a mobile by 2008 • 60,461,045 people at BOP will have a mobile by 2008

  6. 2008 ForecastSEC A,B & C The total population age>15 = 21,323,599 Number of respondents in the sample = 685 • Sampling error = 3.24% • The same technique can be used for SEC A,B & C • 19,096,953 people at SEC A,B & C will have a mobile phone by 2008

  7. 2008 ForecastSummary Mobiles at BOP = 60,461,045 Mobiles at SEC A,B & C = 19,096,953 Total number of mobiles = 79,557,998 Total population estimate = 164,741,924 Mobile teledensity = 48.29%

  8. Trend line with 2008 forecast The trend has a logistic function !

  9. The logistic function

  10. Estimating “a” : The upperbound for the mobile teledensity Population > 15 = 66.41% % that own more than 1 SIM - SEC A,B & C : 14% - BOP : 12% - Weighted Average : 12.6% • Maximum mobile teledensity = 66.41(1.126) = 75% • a = 0.75

  11. Fitting the logistic function

  12. Assumptions • Age of the population is normally distributed with a mean of 22.9 and a standard deviation of 18.6 • No one below age 15 will use mobile phones • Population growth rate is 1.8% • All the people who have only a fixed phone will buy a mobile since they can afford • Maximum mobile teledensity will be 75%

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