1 / 11

M. Amann, W. Sch öpp, J. Cofala, G. Klaassen

M. Amann, W. Sch öpp, J. Cofala, G. Klaassen. The RAINS-GHG Model Approach Work in progress. Introduction of GHGs into RAINS. Task: Develop cost curves for GHGs (CO 2 , CH 2 , N 2 O, CFC, HFC, SF 6 ) in addition to SO 2 , NO x , VOC, NH 3 , PM, (BC, CO)

kasa
Télécharger la présentation

M. Amann, W. Sch öpp, J. Cofala, G. Klaassen

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. M. Amann, W. Schöpp, J. Cofala, G. Klaassen The RAINS-GHG Model Approach Work in progress

  2. Introduction of GHGs into RAINS Task: • Develop cost curves for GHGs (CO2, CH2, N2O, CFC, HFC, SF6) in addition to SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM, (BC, CO) • Country-by-country, medium-term up to 2030 Challenges: • How to capture linkages in emissions, controls, impacts, and instruments? • How to model structural changes?

  3. Traditional RAINS optimization • Decision variables: segments of pollutant-specific cost curves • No interaction between pollutants • Cost curves fixed for given energy structure, no structural change possible

  4. New decision variables Decision variables:Amounts of economic activities controlled by a given abatement measure k (acti,k) • Each technical measure represented as a variable For each activity class i: Σ acti * effj = total activity • Derived from an exogenous baseline scenario • E.g., demand for useful energy (transport volume) • Kept constant in RAINS calculations

  5. Emission- and cost calculation Emission calculation: Σ acti,j *emission factori,j,l = total emissionsl • For each pollutant l • Emission factors include effects of controls • Captures multi-pollutant effects of individual measures Cost calculation: Σ acti,j *cost coeffi = total costs • Cost coefficients describe costs for each technology, not allocated to a specific pollutant • Serves as objective function in optimization

  6. Efficiency improvements and fuel substitution Efficiency improvements: eff > 1 inΣ acti * eff = total activity . or: Σ acti + sav = total activity Fuel substitution (e.g., coal  gas): • Decision variable fs: Σ acti * eff + fs = total coal use Σ acti * eff - fs = total gas use Costs and applicability limits derived from sensitivity runs of full energy model!

  7. Environmental constraints Air quality: Σ emissions i * transfer functionik target levelk • For each receptor k • For deposition, air quality, health effects, etc. • Simultaneous constraints for multiple effects Greenhouse gases (l): Σ emissions il * Xl emission ceiling • For each country or groups of countries • For each GHGs or a basket of GHGs • Xl : weighting factor (GWP) or function (radiative forcing)

  8. Carbon trading Between countries: Σ actbuy *emission factorCO2 - trade  total CO2,buyΣ actsell *emission factorCO2 + trade  total CO2,sell • Also possible for other GHGs/basket of GHGs Buying C from the world market: Σ actbuy *emission factorCO2 - trade  total CO2,buy Σ other costs +trade * C price = total costs Pollution taxes: Σ other costs +Σemissionsl * taxl = total costs

  9. Costs and benefits Simplifications: • Temporal aspects (reflected by constraints) • Substitution options (reflected by constraints) Gains: • Capture full interaction between pollutants • Allow systematic exploration of co-benefits • Enables full integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change Requirements: • Link to full energy model to derive limits • Embed in long-term energy/climate scenarios

  10. A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

  11. Conclusions • Work in progress • Building, as far as possible, on reviewed RAINS databases and UNFCCC information • Cooperation with climate modelling community welcome • Methodology and implementation to be completed by late 2004 • Further workshops at IIASA to discuss details and review progress

More Related