1 / 19

SEMAP Project

SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 EPA Region 4 Modelers Workshop November 15, 2012 – Atlanta, GA. SEMAP Project. S outh E astern M odeling, A nalysis, and P lanning (SEMAP) Project

kaseem-dalton
Télécharger la présentation

SEMAP Project

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SEMAP Modeling Plans and StatusJames BoylanGeorgia EPD – Air Protection BranchSEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead2012 EPA Region 4 Modelers WorkshopNovember 15, 2012 – Atlanta, GA

  2. SEMAP Project • SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project • Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP • AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV • Funded and managed through SESARM

  3. Overview • Emission Inventory Development • Modeling with WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ • Future Year Projections for O3, PM2.5, RH • Ozone Emission Sensitivities • NOTE: SEMAP states do not have any moderate or serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS. • None of this modeling will be used in ozone or PM2.5 attainment SIPs.

  4. Emission Inventory • Emissions Inventory Contractors • AMEC/Alpine  Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions. • TranSystems  Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions. • “Actual” Emission Inventory (2007) • Used for model performance evaluations • “Typical” Emission Inventory (2006-2008) • Fires only (not EGUs) • Used for RRF calculations • Future Year Inventory – 2020 • Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MAR • Rerun NONROAD • Inventory mode ratio/control method for MOVES (proxy FY)

  5. Meteorological Modeling • WRF Model Set-Up • 36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US • 35 Vertical Layers • Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation • Morrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2 (PBL) • Modeling Centers • NC DENR and IA DNR • Model Performance Evaluation • Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) • NC DENR and GA EPD

  6. Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions (SMOKE) Emissions Inventory (NIF) MOVES Rates

  7. Emissions Modeling • GT/UNC - SESARM contractor • Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format) • Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVES • Created biogenic emissions (BEIS) • Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO Emissions • Part 75 data replacement for CEMS • Details on next slide • All 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.

  8. Area Monthly Total NOx

  9. MOVES Monthly Total NOx

  10. 2007 Air Quality Modeling • GT/UNC - SESARM contractor • 2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.0 • 36 and 12 km grids • Model Performance Evaluation • Diagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor) • New CMAQv5.0 Model Options • Additional new crustal species  YES • In-line plume rise for point sources  YES • In-line lightning NOx  YES • In-line bi-directional NH3 flux  NO • In-line biogenic emissions  NO • In-line wind blown dust  NO

  11. CMAQ Modeling Domain

  12. 2018 Air Quality Modeling • 2018 Annual Emissions Modeling • SMOKE for most source sectors • MOVES: Ratio approach using Inventory Mode • 2018 Annual CMAQ Modeling • Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze • Follow EPA’s RRF approach • Emission Sensitivity Modeling • NOx and VOCs for 10 SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 sensitivity runs) • Statewide 30% emission reductions • Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km

  13. VOC/NOx Sensitivity Updates

  14. SEMAP Modeling Schedule

  15. Contact Information Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354James.Boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851

More Related