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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 April 2010. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 April 2010 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of northeastern and southeastern Brazil. The heavy rainfall over Rio de Janeiro during the past week contributed to mudslides and many deaths. • For the next two weeks, the GFS predicts below-average rainfall for most of Brazil. Near-to slightly below-average rainfall is predicted over Rio de Janeiro.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over Ecuador, northern Peru, southern Colombia, the northern Amazon basin, portions of northeastern Brazil and along the southeastern Brazil coast, while below-average rainfall was observed over the southern Amazon basin southward across portions of Bolivia, eastern Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days below-average rainfall was observed over portions of northern and northeastern Brazil and the southern Amazon basin southward across Bolivia, southern Brazil and Uruguay (red ovals).

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau CB NB BAHIA RJ • 90-day rainfall totals are below-average over central Brazil (CB) and Northeast Brazil (NB). Deficits of about 100-150 mm. Average rainfall totals were observed over Bahia. • Heavy rainfall was observed over Rio de Janeiro (RJ) during the past week.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies During the last week, equatorial SSTs were at least 1°C above-average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. SSTs were 0.5°-1.5°C above-average in the equatorial Atlantic. A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • During 3-9 April 2010, anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation (red C) was centered near the coast of southern Brazil. • Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) and above-average rainfall (see slide 4) were observed over portions of southeastern and northeastern Brazil (bottom right panel), on the north flank of the cyclonic circulation. C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period (3-9 April 2010) much below-average temperatures were observed over southeastern South America, while above average temperatures were observed over portions of northeastern Brazil. The average location of a cold front during this period is indicated by the dashed blue line. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 11 April 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 11 April 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (11-17 Apr),below-average rainfall is predicted over a large area of central South America (5S-23S;80-40W). Below average-rainfall is also predicted over southern Brazil. Above-average rainfall is predicted over extreme northwestern South America. • For Days 8-14 (18-24 Apr), below-average rainfall is predicted over most of Brazil, while above-average rainfall is predicted over Colombia, Venezuela and portions of southern Brazil. NOTE: See forecast verification in the next slide.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 28 Mar 2010 Valid 4-10 Apr 2010 Forecast from 4 Apr 2010 Valid 4-10 Apr 2010 Observed 4-10 Apr 2010

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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