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王 毅 WANG Yi 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences

走向绿色发展之路： 《2002 中国人类发展报告 》 评论 Remarks on Making Green Development A Choice: China Human Development Report 2002. 王 毅 WANG Yi 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences 2002 年 6 月 28 日，北京 June 28, 2002 Beijing.

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王 毅 WANG Yi 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences

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  1. 走向绿色发展之路：《2002中国人类发展报告》评论Remarks on Making Green Development A Choice: China Human Development Report 2002 王 毅 WANG Yi 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences 2002年6月28日，北京 June 28, 2002 Beijing http://www.unchina.org/undp/documents/HDR/Documents/Statement.ppt

  2. 报告背景Background • 中国加入WTO China’s Accession to the WTO • 世界可持续发展高峰会议 the World Summit on Sustainable Development • 中国“十五”计划启动 Implementation of the Tenth Five-Year Plan • 面临政府换届 New Government

  3. 报告要点Main Points of the Report • 全面评估中国的环境状况：认为中国的环境问题依然严峻，成为影响未来的主要因素 Overall Assessment of Current Environmental Status in China • 对未来的情景分析，给出了两种可能：危险道路和绿色之路 Scenario-based Assessment for the Future, Two Optional Pathways：the Perilous Path and the Green Reform Path • 从关注问题转向改变驱动力 Attention Changed from Concerning Issues to Driving Forces • 挑战与机会并存，选择在己，走绿色发展之路 Challenges and Opportunities, Right Option--Green Development Path

  4. 环境状况Environmental Status • 人口日益增长 Population Growth • 自然资源加速匮乏 Scarce Natural Resources • 环境状况整体恶化（特别是生态问题、环境健康和西部地区） Environmental Degradation (Ecological Issue, Environmental Health, Degradation in the Western Region) • 上述因素相互影响 Factors Interaction

  5. 人文发展指数与健康风险指数的关系Relationship between HDI and HRI • 研究表明： Research Shows: • 人文发展指数越高，健康风险指数越低； The Higher HDI, the Lower HRI • 收入对人文发展指数影响最大； Income Has the Largest Influence on the Change of HDI • 水污染和营养水平对健康风险指数影响最大； Water Pollution and Nutrition Influence the HRI Most • 环境质量、营养和健康服务与收入增长呈正相关。 The Income Increase Has a Positive Correlation With Environmental Quality, Nutrition and Health Services

  6. 驱动因素的评估Assessment of Drivers • 中国的环境恶化很大程度上取决于驱动因素的影响（人口、经济增长、贫困、意识、消费与技术进步，全球化压力与治理结构） Influences of Drivers on the Deterioration of the Environment in China (Population, Economic Growth, Poverty, Awareness, Consumption, Technology Advance, Globalization and Governance) • 未来发展：不确定性 Future Development: Uncertainties

  7. 两种道路：危险之路Two Pathways： the Perilous Path • 降低应付未来不确定性的能力 Reduce resilience of society to withstand uncertain futures • 削弱中长期增长潜力 Undermine mid-and long-term growth potential • 增加社会和政治不稳定的风险 Increase the risk for social unrest and political instability

  8. 两种道路：绿色改革之路Two pathways: Green Reform Path • 经济与环境同步发展 Balance between Economy and the Environment • 主动的基于市场的综合经济环境政策 Proactive and Integrated Economic and Environmental Policies • 互动的合作机制 Interactive Cooperation Mechanism • 绿色增长：绿色工业与绿色消费 Green Industry and Consumption • 技术进步 Technology Progress

  9. 绿色之路的难点Difficulties toward Green Path • 多重的不确定性 Multi-facet Uncertainties • 政府管理与协调能力不足：部门分工管理 Insufficient Government Collaboration: Management Function in Different Sectors • 社会组织不健全 Deficient Social Organizations • 资金与技术 Investment and Technology

  10. 环境保护存在的主要问题Fundamental Problems of Environmental Protection • 解决问题过分依赖政府 Largely Rely on Government • 针对问题的被动反应，而非改变驱动力的有效预防 Focus on environmental impacts and costly cleanup rather than environmental drivers and effective prevention

  11. 治理和政策改革Administration and Policy Reform • 政策改革：与经济整合 Policy Reform: Integration with the Economy • 治理改革：与社会整合 Governance: Integration with the Society

  12. 政策手段的转化Policy and Management Instrument Transformation • 运动与行政 Campaigns and Administration / Control and Command • 法规 Legislation and Regulation • 市场化手段 Market-based Instruments • 综合经济环境政策：面向驱动因素 Integrated Economic and Environmental Policies：face to Drivers

  13. 良治：全球环境管理变革的趋势Good Governance: Trends of Global Environmental Governance and Institutional Reform • 治理（Governance） • 利益相关者共同参与决策 Stakeholders’ Decision-making Participation • 上下互动，协商机制 Interaction and Negotiation Mechanism • 信息透明，依法办事 Information and Administration Transparency

  14. 市民社会的作用Role of Civil Society • 国家与社会保持均衡 Balance between State and Civil Society • 政治与法律的合法性 Political and Legal Validity • 法制与市场健全 Sound Legislation and Market • 社会中坚力量：承担社会责任 Social forces shoulder social responsibilities • 发展阶段：改革进程与优先次序 Development Phase: Reform Procedure and Priorities

  15. 方法论Methodology • 情景分析：现状和未来变化的情景设置 Scenario Analysis: Scenario Formulation on Current Conditions and Future Development • 联系人文发展指数和健康风险指数 Relationship between HDI and HRI • 人文发展指数：预期寿命、教育水平、人均GDP HDI: Life expectancy, Education and Income • 健康风险指数：空气污染、水污染、营养水平、健康服务 HRI: Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Nutrition, and Access to Health Services

  16. 商榷的问题Issues to be Discussed • 正确理解传统文化的作用 Right Understanding of Traditional Culture Impact • 管制政策在环保中同样发挥重要作用 Top-Down Governance Plays an Important Role • 仅有解决方向是不够的，需要各方面的具体行动和坚持不懈的努力 Not only the Way, but also Actions and Long-term Efforts • 加强中外合作研究 Strengthen Collaborative Research

  17. 绿色前景Green Future • 报告传递的重要信息 Fundamental Messages from the Report • 改变观念 New Ideas/thinking • 正确选择 Right Choices

  18. 谢 谢Thanks a lot

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