An overview of Management of Large Marine Ecosystems and Evidence of Impacts of Climate Change

1. An overview of Management of Large Marine Ecosystems and Evidence of Impacts of Climate Change Hashali Hamukuaya Executive Secretary, Benguela Current Commission, on behalf of African LME Caucus COP 17 Oceans Day - Durban, South Africa 3 December 2011

2. Overview outline • Brief overview of issues in LMEs around the world • Effects of climate warming on fisheries yields in LMEs • Climate Change and African LMEs • Ecological effects of climate change on African LMEs • Social effects of climate change on African LMEs • Value of fisheries of African LMEs • Economic effects of climate change on African LMEs • Conclusion

4. 80% OF THE WORLD’S FISHERIES CATCHES ARE PRODUCED IN 64 LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

5. 5 Climate change 4 Introductions 3 Mechanical habitat destruction Human expansion Altered ecosystems 2 Pollution 1 Fishing “Then”“Now” (from Jackson et al., Science vol. 293, 27 July 2001)

6. LMEs ARE GLOBAL CENTERS OF EFFORTS TO: • REDUCE coastal pollution • RESTORE damaged habitats (Coral reefs, mangroves, sea grasses) • RECOVER depleted fishery stocks • EXPEDITE Marine Spatial Planning • SUSTAIN LME goods and services

7. 5 MODULES WITH INDICATORS

8. Effects of Climate Warming on Fisheries Yields in LMEs

9. The State of the Climate. NOAA 2009, p.5

10. Accelerated Warming of the World’s LMEs in 61 of 63 LME Assessments The 15 fastest warming LMEs around the globe

11. Fisheries biomass yield trends (metric tons) in fast warming cluster 1: Norwegian Sea (LME 21), Faroe Plateau (LME 60), and Iceland Shelf (LME 59). Fisheries biomass yield trends (metric tons) in fast warming cluster 2: North Sea (LME 22), Celtic Biscay (LME 24) and Iberian Coastal (LME 25)

12. From Behrenfeld et al. 2007

13. Climate Change and African LMEs • Agulhas and Somali LMEs (ACLME & SCLME • Benguela Current LME (BCLME) • Canary Current LME (CCLME) • Guinea Current LME (GCLME) • Mediterranean LME (MLME) • Red Sea LME (RSLME)

14. Sea Surface Temperatures in GCLME

15. Zooplankton vs. SST Declining plankton (zoo & phyto) and increased SSTs are observed in the other LMEs in Africa

16. Ecological effects of Climate Change on African LMEs (1) Sea Level Rise • Inundation of coastal areas, destruction of infrastructure, and coastal industry collapse (harbours, fisheries, tourism, etc.) • Opportunities for vector and water borne disease Sea (Surface) Temperature Increase • Shifts in species composition in phyto/ zooplankton communities (mainly large to small individuals) • Changes in diversity and species richness of fishes • Range shifts, with species moving both pole wards and probably to deeper waters • Changes in thermocline and thus reduction in nutrient and productivity in surface water Ocean Acidification • Reduced calcification in species occurring in tropical and sub-tropical areas

17. Cotonou, Hotel PLM, 29 October 2005 (example of effects of sea level rise – increased spring tides)

18. Ecological effects of Climate Change on African LMEs (2) Biodiversity, species distribution and ecosystem changes • Species acting as ‘invasive’ creating negative ecosystem impacts (e.g. increased abundance in jellyfish in the BCLME region) • Changes in abundance of marine species and fisheries distribution - range expansions of tropical species; range contractions of temperate and cold water species • ‘Shifting biomass’ especially of transboundary species Unfavourable environmental events • Increased both frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms • Increase frequency and wider spread of low oxygen events associated with warm water masses

19. Social effects of Climate Change on African LMEs Job, income and livelihood insecurity • Collapsed fisheries and inundation of coastal businesses and industries due to sea level rise will result in huge job losses, loss of income and livelihood security and forced relocations – increased poverty Loss of access to resources • Species extinctions and shifts in distribution and ecosystem composition would create a loss of access for income generation and food Millions of African people would go deeper into poverty while the overall poorer populations will increase significantly All the progress made to secure incomes and livelihoods, provide education and, protect natural resources (as per MDGs) would be lost

20. Many socially and economically important coastal cities are low-lying Mozambique considered to be at high risk (20-25% of pop) SIDS also particularly vulnerable What happens to important habitats like mangroves, coral reefs and seagrasses (and low lying coastal wetlands)?

21. OCEANS DAY AT DURBAN – 3rd December 2011 What are the recorded effects of Climate Change and how can we address them? The case of the Agulhas and Somali Current LMEs as an example

22. What Have We Learned ASCLME and WIO region are hotspots for both increasing SST and sea level rise (faster than global average). They also have many vulnerable, low-lying cities Fluctuations in ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole over recent decades have altered atmospheric circulation trends causing extreme weather conditions leading to droughts and floods in southern and eastern Africa and throughout WIO These same fluctuations in atmospheric circulation and consequent SST are forcing changes in current velocity and direction in the South Equatorial Current and Agulhas Current Clearly the Oceans are playing a central role in regional climate and weather in the WIO region and SST is a key indicator for monitoring and predicting the weather extremes There is a need for a greater understanding and targeted measurements to better predict and adaptively manage

23. What does this all mean in terms of impacts and changes Historically, communities in Africa have adapted to changes in climate variability through land practices, agricultural calendars, choice of crops and animal husbandry methods. But the now too-rapid changes threaten to disrupt production systems and livelihoods Fisheries in South Africa are shifting south and east and from one LME to another and Climate Change may even be altering LME boundaries Predicted crop losses for SA in next 40 years = 10s of $$ millions if trends continue, while changes in vegetation types will lead to a more arid and species-depauperate environment with the loss of 1000’s of endemics Coral reefs in the WIO are expected to ‘tip’ within the next 10 years Changes in current speed/direction in SEC could result in collapse of productivity & fisheries in Mozambique Channel and Madagascar with devastating effects on subsistence coastal communities Similar changes in the Agulhas current could shut down the warm, salty leakage into the Atlantic affecting global weather conditions and also the functioning of the deep conveyor current systems

24. What can we do to address these concerns Urgent need to expand and focus observations and data collection relating to ocean-atmosphere linkages and to monitor both climate and ecosystem variability Equally urgent need to translate this data and knowledge into reliable predictions via high resolution modelling Imperative to reach conclusions from these predictions and modelling results (based on a peer-reviewed Weight-of-Evidence) that can drive adaptive management actions and guide policy decisions ASCLME is collaborating with WIO Alliance of scientists and managers as well as policy-makers in developing strong partnership mechanisms to expand observations, peer-review and deliver results and then develop adaptive management and policy recommendations for the countries and for the region

25. Natural beauty of the Oceans that provide a lifeline for Humanity

26. Value of Fisheries of African LMEs • Excluding the Red Sea and Mediterranean, the region produces in the region of $3.6 bn a year in fisheries values, with around 5 million tonnes of fish landed • N.B. These figures may well grossly under-represent the contributions / importance of “small scale” artisanal and subsistence fisheries • Other major economic sectors include – mining, tourism, naval transport, infrastructure

27. Economic effects of Climate Change on African LMEs Reduced and lost income • Lack of management response of especially transboundary fishery resources that are shifting pole ward could lead to severe financial disadvantages for the state that looses complete access in its EEZ • Collapsed fisheries and inundation of coastal businesses and industries would lead to huge reduction or losses in income • Reduced tax revenues and foreign earnings due to reduced yields – this would lead to reduced reinvestment of revenues in social welfare and development Increased operational costs • Species shifts in distribution would result in harvesting further offshore or even outside existing EEZs – this would lead to increased costs which may make some industrial fishing unfeasible Bankruptcies • Industries employing thousands of people would eventually end up bankrupt due to insufficient yields/ production

28. Conclusion • Whether anthropogenic or not, climate change and environmental variability are happening • This requires well coordinated governance and management responses at global, regional, national and local levels • Improve our understanding of complex ecosystem processes to better inform planning and management – how can you manage something you do not understand? • Improve monitoring and assessment to inform adaptive management – which may have specific research needs • Improve our understanding of the oceans as main drivers of climate and heat/water transport on the planet – inform planning • Without understanding the response of the oceans, we have an extremely poor understanding of the climate system. The LME Approach provides a vital opportunity to address these needs • Climate change is not an environmental problem – it is a development challenge and a HUMAN ISSUE – humans need to ACT