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Business, Technology, and Future Internet Research

Business, Technology, and Future Internet Research. Thomas Michael Bohnert The Future Internet Symposium 2011 Nov 2011, Vienna. Disclaimer.

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Business, Technology, and Future Internet Research

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  1. Business, Technology, and Future Internet Research Thomas Michael Bohnert The Future Internet Symposium 2011 Nov 2011, Vienna

  2. Disclaimer This document outlines our general product direction and should not be relied on in making a purchase decision. This presentation is not subject to your license agreement or any other agreement with SAP. SAP has no obligation to pursue any course of business outlined in this presentation or to develop or release any functionality mentioned in this presentation. This presentation and SAP's strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement. SAP assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this document, and shall have no liability for damages of any kind including without limitation direct, special, indirect, or consequential damages that may result from the use of this document. This limitation shall not apply in cases of intent or gross negligence.

  3. Future Internet Perspectives

  4. Future Internet Genesis „The Internet isbroken.“ David D. Clark, MIT In an article in MIT Technology Review, 2005 But why?

  5. Origins After 15y research on Internet architecture (1988), the Internet design goals were • Global connectivity • Communication (service) survivability • Multi-service support • Support variety of physical networks • Distributed management • Cost efficiency • Host attachment with low of effort and costs • Resource accountability

  6. Evolution Source: ITU Source: W. Mohr, PIMRC 2009

  7. Today – All about Mobile

  8. Today – All in the Cloud Cloud Computing allows On Demand Software Provisioning with Zero-Installation & Zero-Configuration at low cost and immediate access in Ultra-Scalable Data Centers. Application Providers Platform Providers Infrastructure Providers Service Providers 400,000 Developers + ISVs Selected Cloud Consumers & ISVs

  9. The Future Internet is Mobile - Opportunity and Challenge ITU predicted 5 billion mobile subscriptions globally in 2010 and the number of mobile broadband subscriptions exceed one billion globally, having topped 600 million by the end of 2009. In Germany from 0.2M GByte in 2005 to 70M Gbyte in 2011, a 7B Euro business NSN predicts mobile data traffic to be >2000+ PByte / Month in 2015 ! Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database and NokiaSiemensNetworks

  10. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Broadband Wireless Access Technologies Cellular (3GPP) 1G Analog 2G TDMA 3G CDMA LTE/LTE-Advanced Broadband Wireless (WiMAX) IEEE 802.16d IEEE 802.16e IEEE 802.16m • Current 4G standards: Part of IMT-2000 • WiMAX (based on IEEE 802.16e) • LTE (Rel. 8) • 4G+ candidates: Part of IMT-Advanced • WiMAX2 (based on IEEE 802.16m) • LTE-A (Rel. 10)

  11. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Long-Term Evolution • Austria: • T-Mobile AT • 0.25M Citizens1:34 • Insbruck, Graz • Linz, Wien • In 2014 1:4, 2.1M • 116M Investment • Germany vsAutria • Rualvs City 1st First commercial offerings in Europe availableBeyond, LTE is already a reality, in particular in Latin America and Asia Source: www.ltemobile.de and www.ltemaps.org/

  12. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - WiMAX High number of WiMAX deployments worldwide (red 802.12d, blue 802.12e)WiMAX Forum currently tracks 582 WiMAX Deployments in 150 Countries. Source: WiMAX Forum / www.wimaxmaps.org//

  13. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - IMT Advanced

  14. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Challenge: Spectrum Spectrum: A vital but scarce resource to many systems (TV, Radio, Communications, etc)

  15. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Challenge: Spectrum Spectrum Governance: Fragmented, Bureaucratic, Time Costly Global (ITU), Regional (Continents), Federal (EU, US), Country (Germany, Spain, etc), State, Regional, ... Europe: Radio Spectrum Policy Group , Radio Spectrum Committee, BEREC, European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Organisations, ... Spectrum Ownership: Expensive Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefónica 02 und E-Plus paid 4,4 Milliarden Euro for a 360MHz package (60MHz Digital Dividend, 800MHz Band) roughly a 10th of the 50B Euros for UMTS in 2000 Comes along with obligations (coverage-by-date, MobilCom returned 8.4B Euro UMTS license end of 2003)

  16. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Challenges: Spectrum Use 900 MHz band - Dortmund 70-80% of Broadband Wireless Access from Indoor23 percent of customer care contacts for call quality**“Churn-to-Quality Equation” - Indoor penetration matters (and not only, see iPhone4 Antenna issue) Sources: Simon Delaere, IBBT-SMIT, VrijeUniversiteitBrussel, EU Telecoms Event, Future Internet Week Ghent, 17 December 2010, J.D. Power and Associates, http://businesscenter.jdpower.com/news/pressrelease.aspx?ID=2011010, ShashiBhushan Kumar, MarketsandMarkets – Analyst Briefing

  17. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Challenges: System Complexity and OPEX Sources: Mody, A.N. & Chouinard, G. (2010). IEEE 802.22 Wireless Regional Area Networks. (doc. IEEE 822.22-10/0073r03, Ericsson, SERVICE DELIVERY PLATFORM EFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF SERVICES, October 2006, F. Seiser, DTAG, Fuseco Forum 2011

  18. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Opportunity: Infrastructure Sharing (IaaS=>Cloud) LightSquared will be a wholesale only 4G-LTE network that combines with satellite to provide LTE cover 90% of the US population by 2015 Sources: KMPG, OVUM 2006, Yankee Group, 2008

  19. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Challenge: RAN Cloudification (IaaS=>Cloud) Network Sharing (eg: rural) Base Station Sharing (leads to cloud) BSC Owner #1 Network Owner #1 Retail SDR RRU MSC BSC BTS BSC Base Band Unit Owner #2 Network Owner #2 Retail BTS Antenna Sharing Tower Sharing (very popular) BSC BTS BSC BTS Owner #1 Network Owner #1 Network O BSC BTS BSC BTS Owner #2 Network Owner #2 Network Source: Wireless Network Cloud, IBM Research, 2009

  20. The Future Internet is Mobile (cont’d) - Challenge: RAN Cloudification (IaaS=>Cloud) Source: “Wireless Network Cloud”, IBM Research, 2009 and “RAN Cloudification”, Ericsson, 2011

  21. The Future Internet is based on Optics - Traffic Volume without Limits? • One Exabyte = 1 quintillion bytes = 1,152,921,504,606,846,976 bytes (or 1B GB) • 12 Exabytes = Sum of all human produced information (audio, video, text/books) through1999 (of which 1.5 exabytes was created in 1999 alone) * • Worldwide Information Tracker - http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htmshows 431+ Exabytes created and replicated worldwide since 1/1/2008(to 12/1/08)** • Roughly 1.2+ Exabytes of information /day – tendency increasing ! * University of California at Berkeley study** IDC – The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe Sources: Werner Mohr, NSN, Keynote PIMRC 2009, Amit Patel, ALU, CTO, US Strategic Accounts, January 2009

  22. The Future Internet is based on Optics (cont’d) - Capacity currently no issue; but mind OPEX SONET – ADM - TDM Services, POS, EOS - Layer 1, 2 TransportROUTER – IP/MPLS – Data, voice, Internet, ATM/Video – Layer 2, 3 Transport DWDM – Layer 1 and some L2 and L3 transparent TransportROADM – Optical Routing-Switching /GMPLS - Layer 1 Transport Sources: Pathmal Gunawardana, NSN, OFC 2011

  23. The Future Internet is based on Optics (cont’d) - Challenge: Market Transformation • Open Access Regulation • Supported by Stimulus Package • Europe: Differences / members, based on EC recommendations • Trend to fiber unbundling (passive+active) • Trend to wholesale and universal service • Energy, Water, Bits, .. • New market entrants, competition (e.g utility providers, cities, regions) • Tech & Biz Challenge: NaaS Fiber-Optics in Switzerland:Energie-Elektrizität ZürichSankt Galler StadtwerkeIndustrielle Werke BaselServices industriels Genève Energie Wasser LuzernEnergie und Wasser Meilen(...)Total: 13 Utility vs 7 Telcos

  24. The Future Internet is based on Optics (cont’d) - Challenge: Dynamic Infrastructure Sharing (IaaS => Cloud) www.geysers.eu

  25. Future Internet Applications & Services - Cloud Computing • Merrill Lynch $160 billion addressable market opportunity Forrester Bandwidth for Amazon’s EC2 and S3 in Q4 of 2007 exceeded entire global Amazon.com web properties combined IDC Spending on cloud computing will grow almost threefold within the next five years, reaching $42 billion by 2012 and accounting for 9% of revenues Huge economic potential but technologically fragmented and highly proprietary

  26. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Cloud Computing • On-demand, scalable Infrastructure-as-a-Service • LAMP-based (Linux, Apache, ...) • Elastic Computing (EC2) • Auto Scaling / CloudWatch • Elastic Block Store (EBS) • “Zoning” - Regulatory compliance • Elastic Load Balancing (availability zones) • EC2 SLA (exclusion) • “factors outside (..) including Internet access (...) or related beyond EC2 demarcation” Sources: www.rightscale.com and aws.amazon.com

  27. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Cloud Computing • On-demand, scalable Platform-as-a-Service • Concept of Roles (Web, Worker, IaaS) • Windows Server, SQL, .NET based • Auto Scaling • Azure Storage (container, table, queue) • Azure SQL (ADO.NET interface) • Services: Access Control, Orchestration, .. • Azure SLA (exclusion) • “Internet facing roles will have external connectivity at least 99.95% of the time” Sources: Eric Nelson, Developer & Platform Group, Microsoft Ltd and www.microsoft.com/windowsazure

  28. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Cloud Computing • On-demand, scalable Platform-as-a-Service • Customized Java + Standard Python lib • Java: Servlets, WAR, JDO, JPA • Python: Django, CGI, WSGI • Tailored to Google Web Toolkit • GAE Auto Scaling • GAE Storage: Abstract and Type-oriented • Entity, Entity Groups, etc • Master/Slave vs High Replication • GAE Services: oAuth, Gmail/eMail, Google Chat / XMMP Guido van Rossum, Stanford EE380 Colloquium, 2008 and code.google.com/appengine/

  29. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Cloud Computing • There is a case for End-to-End Cloud Computing and Services • Opportunity for Telcos • But ... • Competition fierce, established and strong players • What service to offer? NaaS-IaaS / PaaS / SaaS? • How to integrate/collaborate (Tech + Biz) • Standardization needed • Which deployment: Public, Semi-Private/Trusted, Community Cloud • And how to build trust? (Security #1 user concern)

  30. Future Internet Applications & Services - Is Software & Services the Future? Sources: http://finance.yahoo.com/

  31. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Is Software & Services the Future? It seems so ... ... but mind, you are not alone “A new TeliaSonera Facebook-like application would generate an annual revenue of €5 million, representing 0.42% of TeliaSonera’s total mobile revenue in 2008 of €1182 million...” Sources: http://www.distimo.com/appstores// and TelieSonera 2009, Silicon Alley 2009 Note, numbers for TeliaSonera are referring to mobile users in Sweden

  32. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Driven by Non-ICT Sectors Manufacturing • Automation & Decentralized Shop FloorControl • MachineMaintenance Energy • AutomatedMeteringInfrastructure (AMI) • Smart Grid Transport and Logistics • Track & Trace • Supply Chain Integrity Retail • Customer Services / Retention • Multi-Channel Automotive • Car-to-X • Vehicle Relationship Management Health • Inclusion • Assisted Living

  33. Future Internet Applications & Services (cont’d) - Is Software & Services the Future? Because (right) relationships matter SAP Press Release Feb 2011 - "SAP firmly believes in WAC’s mission and looks forward to contributing to its success," said Jens Amail, senior vice president, Telecommunications, SAP. Sources: http://www.distimo.com/appstores// and TelieSonera 2009, Silicon Alley 2009 Note, numbers for TeliaSonera are referring to mobile users in Sweden

  34. In Summary • Many technical challenges remain • Many more than covered in this talk • Need for a “holistic Future Internet research”approach • Network of the Future (fixed and mobile) • Cloud Computing • Internet of Things • Internet of Services • Security • Convergence beyond technology – ICT & Non-ICT Sectors

  35. Future Internet Research – A Global Initiative ICT-Shok (FI) Ambient (SE) Ambient (SE) Ambient (SE) FISG (UK) Asia Future Forum, CGNI (CN) Celtic/Eureca GENI, FIND G-Lab, Texo, Theseus (DE) Akari (JP) FP7, FI PPP, FIRE FIF, FIA, EIFFEL EFIA, FIRA, EFII, ETPs GdR FI, France Numérique (FR) Stanford Clean-Slate NET-FIT (PT) Future Internet Forum (SK) Internet del Futuro (ES) Nicta (AU) Appr 5B Euro investment in R&D worldwide over the past 7years in EU aloneUpgrade the Internet from communication infrastructure to global business platformEndorse the major trends: Mobile, Cloud Computing, Internet of Services, IoT

  36. Future Internet Public-Private Partnership - Program after Call 1 http://www.fi-ppp.eu/

  37. FI-PPP Technology Foundation

  38. Some figures and data Main data 26 partners 5 Universities 4248 Person Months (excl. open calls) Total Funding 41 M€ Open calls 12,3 M€ Total budget 66,4 M€ Three years duration

  39. Suppliers Governments Manufacturer Consumers Retailers Wholesalers Internet of Services Cloud Computing Internet of Things Future Networks FI Core Platform Architecture: Vision Future Internet Business Platform Provisioning – Hosting – Refactoring – Brokering – Consumption

  40. FI Core Platform Architecture: main chapters Functionality Trust and Security Operations

  41. Core Platform Instances and Use Case Trials • Future Internet Applications run on top of “FI Core Platform Instances” • Use Case trials will consist of application scenarios running on top of FI Core Platform Instances, involving real users Use Case Trial FI Core Platform GE GE FI Core Platform Instance GE GE GE GE assemble… GE Platform Products

  42. Apps & Services : Vision FI-WARE – Forerunner in Global Service Economies A Global Service Industry exploiting the Internet as universal Platform for multi-tier Business Networks Business-Centric & Global Service-Oriented & Global Communication & Content Product-Oriented & Local The (Future) Internet The (Future) Economy

  43. Apps & Service : Architecture Core Elements of the Business Framework • USDL Service Descriptions & USDL Registry & Repository • Marketplace and 1..n Store(s) (currently 1 Store) • Revenue Sharing, SLA management • Business models (e.g. open call) Technical Business Operational www.internet-of-services.org USDL

  44. Mainmilestones in FI-WARE

  45. We plan to maintain ~30% (12M Euro) of the project budget for distribution among new partners New partners will be selected through Open Calls to allow for responding to emerging user requirements not identified at the start of the project, e.g., due to new usage areas, new technologies, new economic conditions Specific component of the budget will be reserved for SMEs (aprox 30%) and Research Centers (aprox 30%) Selection of new partners will be done according to the procedure issued by the Commission European Commission 23 October 2009v1a Guidance note for project coordinators planning a competitive call for additional beneficiaries in an ICT Integrated Project or Network of excellence Management of Open Calls

  46. Open callprocedure The budget devoted to the Open Calls is 12.300.000 €, or 30% of total funding. The expected distribution of this budget between the two planned Open Calls is about 8.000.000 € in the first Open Call and 4.300.000 € in the second Open Call.

  47. Firstcallprocedure

  48. Secondcallprocedure

  49. Our objective • Working together to make it possible: • New services for everybody • Smart applications • Innovative business models • Providing the Technology Foundation • Standard interfaces. • Open to other actors (SMEs) • Scalable and demand oriented (cloud) create a solid basis for the Internet of the Future

  50. http://www.networks-etp.eu/ Join Us! • Thomas Michael Bohnert • Technical Director • SAP Research • More on Future Internet Research • http://www.futureinternet.eu/ & tmb@nginet.de

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