1 / 10

Crisis Management in Central and Southeastern Europe

Crisis Management in Central and Southeastern Europe. Zoltán Egeresi 24/05/2013. Country groups. EU member countries ( joined 2004) EU members ( joined 2007) or acceding countries (2013) EU candidate countries EU membership aspirants. Pre-crisis situation (2007-2008).

lamont
Télécharger la présentation

Crisis Management in Central and Southeastern Europe

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Crisis Management inCentral and Southeastern Europe Zoltán Egeresi 24/05/2013

  2. Country groups • EU membercountries(joined 2004) • EUmembers (joined 2007) or accedingcountries (2013) • EU candidatecountries • EU membershipaspirants

  3. Pre-crisissituation (2007-2008) • Small, openeconomies, exceptPoland • Growingeconomies • Except: Hungary • Increasing FDI inflows • Relativelylowpublicdebt • Except: Albania and Hungary • Relativelybalancedgovernmentbudgets • Higher deficit inAlbania, Hungary and Romania

  4. Impacts of the crisis (after 2008) • Decreasing FDI, domesticconsumption and remittances, reduceddemandforthe export, banking systemdifficulties • The extent of therecession (2009; y-o-y): • More than 5 pp: Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia, Montenegro • Less than 5 pp: BiH, CzechRepublic, Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia • Slowdown, but not recession: Albania, Kosovo, Poland • Secondwave of crisis: eurozonecrisisafter 2010 • Increasingpublicdebt • Increasingbudget deficit

  5. Stabilizationmeasures • Main purpose: enhancingfinancial and laterfiscalstability • Similarmonetarypolicies (baserate) • Eurozonemembers (Slovenia, Slovakia – Montengro, Kosovo) and BiH (fixed baserate) • Accedingcountriesin2004 (HU, PL) and Serbia • ɅɅ-shapedbaserate policy • Other Southeast European countries • Ʌ-shapedbaserate policy • IMF packages • Privatization

  6. Restrictivemeasures • Austerity measurestobalancethebudget(in line with IMF packages) • Typicalfeatures: • Cutting public sector salaries, pensions and social allowances • Increasingretirementageinsomecountries • Taxincrease (VAT) / newtaxes, reducingtaxallowances

  7. Governments: elections and crisis I.

  8. Governments: elections and crisis II.

  9. Political consequences • Relatively stable governments with reelection: Albania, CzechRepublic, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland • Relatively stable governments failing to be reelected: Bulgaria(?), Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Slovakia • Difficultiesingovernmentformation: BiH • Reasons of politicalcrisis: restrictivemeasures, corruption and politicalscandals

  10. Conclusions • The level of integrationinto European financialmarkets and economyinfluencedtheextent of thecrisis • Crisis management policiesbasedonthecombinationof incentiveand restrictivemeasures • Notonlytheseverecrisis, butpoliticalscandals and corruptionalsoaffectedthe life span of eachgovernment

More Related