Numerical modeling of air quality: also a challenge for scientists south of Río Grande!

1. Numerical modeling of air quality: also a challenge for scientists south of Río Grande! Laura Gallardo Centro de Modelamiento Matemático, Universidad de Chile, UMI CNRS 2087, Casilla 170-3, Santiago, Chile, lgallard@dim.uchile.cl LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

2. Outline “...Andando en un camino encontré al aire, lo saludé y le dije...no sé quién eres, pero una cosa te pido, no te vendas...” El libro de las odas, Pablo Neruda • Air quality: VERY complex problemS… • One of many tools: air quality models • Which is the situation South of Río Grande? • What’s next?: A challenge and an opportunity • Summary LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

3. A very important (The most important) air pollution problem in South America is associated to the continental scale biomass burning during the dry season. With over a hundred of thousands of fires each year … Freitas et al, 2004 LGK Apr'06 Iguazu MODIS Rapid Response System 08/25/2002 – 14:15UTC

4. Affecting far beyond Amazonia 26 - 29 26 - 29 Simulation 23 – 31/ August/ 2002 Aeronet data: Cordoba and Buenos Aires Freitas et al, 2004 LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

5. Also ENORMOUS point sources of pollutants…again, not only health issues Chuquicamata ~106GgS/yr CDNC LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Wood et al, VOCALS plan 2005; Huneeus et al, 2006

6. And impresive and badly characterized natural sources e.g., volcanic fumarolic emissions LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

7. The M-city issue in SCA M-cities in SCA > 75% of South Americans live in M-cities!! LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Credit: C. Mayhew & R. Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/ NGDC, DMSP Digital Archive

8. Bogotá Santiago • M-cities gather problems and increase vulnerability …from health issues to climate change São Paulo Living in M-cities…for some rather wealthy but not that healthy! LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

9. Pacific High/Coastal Lows ¡Fértil provincia! Santiago del Nuevo Extremo, Valle central de Chile + 6 M inhabitants and growing 60% of Chile’s economic activity Lousy transportation system Often a bad combination of factors and events/decisions… LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

10. In most cities, environmental policies are targeted at first towards diminishing acute health impacts • Emission inventories are compiled • Monitoring networks are implemented • Measures are enforced, i.e., point sources are reduced • Environmental standards or guidelines are adopted Sao Paulo, Brazil LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

11. When the objectives become more ambitious (long-term impacts, more expensive and less obvious measures, etc.) • Emission inventories have to be more accurate and be used in combination with models • Regional monitoring networks are needed • Efforts are oriented towards traffic emissions and planning Santiago, Chile LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

12. Molina & Molina, 2002 A SYSTEMIC APPROACH IS NEEDED: air quality modeling is one of the many concurring tools… LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

13. +IC & BC Lavoisier, 1789 Dispersion and transformations Emissions Removal LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

14. Emission inventories Observations LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

15. From molecular interactions to planetary waves...all at once! LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

16. CMM/MATCH/POLYPHEMUS DMC/POLYPHEMUS DGF/WRF PUC/CAMx USACH/CAMx Are there any models around?... PLENTY!!!! • WRF • MATCH • BRAMS • POLYPHEMUS • UAM-V • CAMx • CMAQ • KAMM • etc LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

17. Computers have become affordable and there are fast connections LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

18. In most M-cities where attainement plans have been developed, there are: Emission inventories for particulate matter, NOx, SOx,CO, HC, etc. Air quality data for “criteria pollutants” (CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, etc.) Methodologies change from city to city and even from year to year within a city Calibration and validation procedures and traditions differ a lot among cities Data are not always easily accessed The foci in analyses and sampling is very local and related to acute health issues These data are not included in global data bases Lack of PEOPLE and coordination!!!!  There is information …But LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

19. What’s next? IGAC workshop Oct 2005 @ Santiago de Chile • Training and building of networks • Short and long-term (PhD) training and exchange programs • Symposia and Conferences • Connecting with global programs: ESSP…IGBP…IGAC • Developing regional capabilities • Regional monitoring network and database (GAW/GURME) • Regional emission network and database (GEIA/AIMES) • Regional computer center and network (CLARA…) • Finding key questions/problems • Biomass burning…pyrocumulus • Megacities…data assimilation • Megasources…aerosol-cloud-climate • Etc. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

20. To provide accurate regional emissions and climate change scenarios for South America, with emphasis on the impacts of and on megacities. To establish the basis for operational chemical weather forecast for South American megacities. To strengthen and expand an active research and capacity building network in the Americas functional to Earth System Modeling. Mobile and Stationary emissions scenarios estimate and evaluation Dynamical down-scaling of climate change scenarios Pilot implementation of chemical weather forecast network and tools for South American megacities Prospective characterization of aerosols in and downwind from South American megacities. A dear case: South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate (SAEMC, 2006-2010) LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

21. Air quality modeling capabilities exist and they keep growing in the region, but there are few people • There are growing needs for AQM applications • There is an appalling lack of observations and reliable emission data • Regional capabilities must be developed • Networking and collaboration are the key steps forward To take over the world! Summary LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

22. See you in Cape Town, September 17-23, 2006!!http://www.atmosphericinterfaces2006.co.za/ LGK Apr'06 Iguazu