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CalNex Forecast

CalNex Forecast. Prepared  Monday 21 June 2010. Anticipated Flights. NOAA P3 Mon:     No Flights - packing Tue:      Measurements during transit to Colorado NOAA Twin Otter Mon:      Morning & afternoon flights in Sac area Tue: CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200  Mon:    Sac/N SJV flights

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CalNex Forecast

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  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Monday21 June 2010

  2. Anticipated Flights NOAA P3 • Mon:    No Flights - packing • Tue:     Measurements during transit to Colorado NOAA Twin Otter • Mon:     Morning & afternoon flights in Sac area • Tue: CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200  • Mon:   Sac/N SJV flights      Tue:    afternoon flight possible Wed:   Flights likely      Thu:    Flights likely, if no flight Tuesday

  3. Local Features Monday • light NW winds clear SF emissions from Sac Valley and carry fresh Sac and SF emissions to SJV • Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab still conducting prescribed grass burns (200-300 acres) when winds OK • enhanced bkg O3 production in San Francisco Bay Area Tuesday • improving flow into Sac Vly but Sac plume largely south of Cool • Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab still conducting prescribed grass burns (200-300 acres) when winds OK • Moderate (5-10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L between SF and Sac. • USG for O3 possible in southern SJVLA Basin emissions transport east to desert Wednesday • improved flow pattern for Sac to Cool transport but mid & high level clouds (>20k ft base) • USG for O3 possible in southern SJV Thursday • good flow pattern for Sac to Cool transport but some mid & high level clouds (>15k ft base) • USG for O3 possible in southern SJV

  4. Synoptic Overview for California • Monday June 21 • Weak baggy trough extends from ID southwest to SoCal • Transport flow:  SW in SoCal, N/NW in the north • SoCal surface flow is weak onshore with marine stratus present • North winds for the Valleys • Tuesday June 22 • Weak ridging moves through the state • Weak onshore flow late for all areas • Wednesday June 23 • Next trough digs south from PacNW • Onshore flow increases in the north • Beyond… • Longwave trough over CA through Fri • Transitory ridge for Sat • Another trough for the north Sunday, ridging south

  5. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  6. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

  7. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  8. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT

  9. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  10. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Wednesday – 05 PDT

  11. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  12. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  13. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Thursday – 05 PDT

  14. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

  15. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

  16. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Saturday – Fri 17 PDT

  17. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Saturday – Fri 17 PDT

  18. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated SUN, Jun 20th

  19. 500m CO Mon afternoon

  20. 500m CO Tue afternoon

  21. 500m CO Wed afternoon

  22. 500m CO Thu afternoon

  23. 500m O3 Mon afternoon

  24. 500m O3 Tue afternoon

  25. 500m O3 Wed afternoon

  26. 500m O3 Thu afternoon

  27. 500m O3 prod Mon afternoon

  28. 500m O3 prod Tue afternoon

  29. 500m O3 prod Wed afternoon

  30. 500m O3 prod Thu afternoon

  31. 500m PM2.5 nothing noteworthy until maybe Friday

  32. 500m vertical displacement Mon afternoon

  33. 500m vertical displacement Tue afternoon

  34. 500m vertical displacement Wed afternoon

  35. 500m vertical displacement Thu afternoon

  36. Northern California Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi and COAMPS fine grid plots http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html 

  37. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

  38. CANSAC Initialized 00 Z Monday

  39. Monday 0500 PDT

  40. Monday 1100 PDT

  41. Monday 1700 PDT

  42. Tuesday 0500 PDT

  43. Tuesday 1100 PDT

  44. Tuesday 1700 PDT

  45. Wednesday 0500 PDT

  46. Wednesday 1100 PDT

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