1 / 77

CalNex Forecast

CalNex Forecast. Prepared  Friday 18 June 2010. Anticipated Flights. NOAA P3 Fri:     Northern SJV flight with G-1 comparison Sat: NOAA Twin Otter Fri:     Central Valley flight Sat:    Flight likely CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200  Fri:      G-1 comparison with P3 in N SJV; B-200 flight

varian
Télécharger la présentation

CalNex Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Friday18 June 2010

  2. Anticipated Flights NOAA P3 • Fri:     Northern SJV flight with G-1 comparison • Sat: NOAA Twin Otter • Fri:    Central Valley flight • Sat:   Flight likely CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200  • Fri:      G-1 comparison with P3 in N SJV; B-200 flight • Sat:     Flights likely • Sun:    No flights, if fly Saturday

  3. Local Features Saturday • high background CO & O3 descending over SoCal • SF/Sac emissions transport to N Sac Valley (west of Cool) • Southern Sac Valley eddy Sat am centered between Davis and Fairfield  • SJV NW nocturnal jet Friday night into Saturday morning  • LA outflow to E deserts Sunday • high background CO & O3 descending over SoCal • morning NW winds clear SF emissions from Sac Valley and carry fresh Sac and SF emissions to SJV

  4. Synoptic Overview for California • Friday June 18 • Trough dominates CA weather • On-shore flow over the entire coast line • Deep marine layer along the coast • Southwesterly to westerly transport flow in the interior • Strong surface winds in most areas except Southern SJV • Saturday June 19 • Trough remains in place over CA • On-shore flow continues over the entire state • Marine layer over coast should remain deep • Gradient relaxes slightly • Transport winds continue southwesterly to westerly, weaken • Interior winds will be similar but will weaken

  5. Synoptic Overview for California (cont'd) • Sunday June 20 • Axis of the trough moves inland • Influence of trough continues, but becomes more baggy • Light winds over state in the early morning • N CA winds turn northerly in the Sac Valley as trough axis moves east • Winds along N Coast turn northwesterly • S CA winds remain southwesterly to westerly • SJV winds turn northerly • Beyond… • Baggy trough remains in place into next week • Gradients continue to relax resulting in a general weakening of the winds for all areas

  6. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

  7. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Friday – 05 PDT

  8. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Saturday – Fri 17 PDT

  9. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Saturday – 05 PDT

  10. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

  11. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

  12. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  13. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  14. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

  15. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  16. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  17. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  18. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  19. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Fri, Jun 18th

  20. NOTE:  Enhanced background O3 production in slides 27 & 28 is actually 15-20 ppbv/day.

  21. FWD and BACK trajectoriesMM5 fine grid http://orthus.arb.ca.gov/calnex/forecast/nam_mm5_forecast.html Initialized 12 Z Thu Jun 17

  22. RH Vertical Cross Section SF - Tahoe http://orthus.arb.ca.gov/calnex/forecast/nam_mm5_forecast.html Initialized 12 Z Thu Jun 17

  23. Northern California Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi and COAMPS fine grid plots http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html 

  24. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

  25. http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

  26. North SF Bay surface tracer release Concentrations at 205m sigma-level COAMPS Initialized 00 Z Thursday

  27. 36 hour 12Z - Fri

  28. 42-hour  18 Z Friday

  29. 48-hour 00Z Sat

  30. 54 hour 06 Z Saturday

  31. 60 hour 12Z Saturday

More Related