2010 CalNex Policy Makers Needs

1. California Air Resources Board 2010 CalNexPolicy Makers Needs Eileen McCauley, Research Division Presentation to NOAA January 5, 2009 California Environmental Protection Agency

2. Caveat • I can only speak for CARB’s priorities and needs but I think that they are representative of the needs of a much wider regulatory and scientific community.

3. ARB’s Objectives • Public Health • ARB seeks to protect public health by reducing air pollution. • Climate Change • ARB has a major role in achieving the targets and requirement of AB32

4. Public Health • California has made enormous improvements in air quality • But by some measures we still have the worse air in the county • Large numbers of Californians exposed to air which does not meet NAAQS

10. With 12% of the Nation’s population, California accounts for 41% of the exposure to ozone values above National 8-hr standard.

11. What about PM?

12. California accounts for 63% of the Nation’s exposure to PM 2.5 above National Standard.

13. Annual California PM2.5 and Ozone Health Impacts

14. Climate Change • Climate Change is the most serious environmental issue facing mankind. • But it is a global issue. • Why is a State interested in climate change? 1903 Lyell Glacier, Yosemite 2003

15. Climate Change & AB32 • ARB is charged with monitoring and regulating sources of GHG in order to reduce emissions • ARB is responsible for a statewide inventory of GHG • Climate change has the potential to affect air quality in California • Need to understand the co-benefits and trade offs

16. Governor’s Executive Order • Greenhouse gas reduction targets • By 2010, reduce to 2000 levels* • By 2020, reduce to 1990 levels** • By 2050, reduce to 80% below 1990 levels * Equals about 60 million tons emission reduction, 11% below business as usual ** Equals about 174 million tons emission reduction, 30% below BAU

17. Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog 160 160 140 140 (ppb) 120 120 100 100 California Ozone Standard California Ozone Standard 80 80 Maximum 8-hr Average Ozone (ppb) Maximum 8-hr Average Ozone 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 40 60 80 100 120 40 60 80 100 120 Daily Maximum Temperature ( F) o Daily Maximum Temperature ( F) o Riverside, 2003-2006 Fresno, 2003-2006 N. Motallebi (2008) Cal/EPA

18. Climate Change Hotspots in U.S. Diffenbaugh, N. S., et al. (2008). Climate change hotspots in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett.

19. Goals from ARB’s Strategic Plan • Develop and implement new strategies to effectively reduce air pollution. • Improve our technical tools to assess the nature and sources of air pollution, and to evaluate the effectiveness of air quality improvement strategies • Develop the atmospheric modeling capability needed to support attainment demonstrations for the State ozone standard. • Refine our understanding of particulate matter pollution. Add regulating greenhouse gases

20. Air Quality Field Studies in California • Field Studies began in 1969/1970 • Recent major efforts include SCAQS87,SCOS-97, CCOS and CRPAQS • Dozens of smaller efforts (LTADS)

21. Why do we still need another field study? • How many studies of human physiology have there been? • Need to understand the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere well enough to mathematically model • California has exceedingly complex terrain and meteorology

23. Science Questions - Emissions • How can we improve the emissions inventory for greenhouse gases, ozone and aerosol precursors including emissions from soil, ships, agriculture and other non-industrial or transportation related processes?  What measurements can help validate the use of satellite data for biogenic VOC and NOx emission inventories? • What emissions (natural and anthropogenic) and processes lead to sulfate formation over California coastal waters and in urbanized coastal areas?  What is the contribution from ship emissions? How does Southern California compare and contrast with the San Francisco Bay Area? • What sources and processes contribute to atmospheric mercury concentrations in California?

24. Science Questions – Chemical Transformation and Climate Processes • How important are chemical processes occurring at night in determining transport and / or loss of nitrogen oxides, reactive VOC and ozone?  Do regional models in California adequately represent these processes and their effect on air quality? • What are the sources and physical mechanisms that contribute to high ozone concentrations aloft that have been observed in Central and Southern California? • Are there significant differences between Central Valley and South Coast Air Basin precursors or ozone formation chemistry?  Will meteorological and/or precursor differences between the Central Valley and the South Coast Air Basin lead to different chemical transformation processes and different responses to emissions reductions?  What is the importance of natural emissions to the ozone formation process? Are there regional differences in the formation rates and efficiency for particulate matter as well? • What are the impacts of aerosols in California on radiative forcing and cloud formation?  What are the most important precursors and formation processes for secondary organic aerosol?  What is the role of aqueous phase processes in atmospheric transformations?

25. Science Questions - Transport and Meteorology • What are proper oceanic boundary conditions for coastal and regional atmospheric chemistry modeling?  Are there variations in oceanic boundary conditions in northern and central California vs. the southern part of the state?  What physical and chemical changes occur as a parcel of air moves from off-shore, through the shore zone, and inland? • How best can we characterize and model air flow over coastal waters and the complex terrain of California?  For example: what is the best representation of air flow in the southern San Joaquin Valley, particularly with respect to flow between the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast Air Basin versus recirculation north along the Sierra Nevada and Coastal ranges? • What are the major deficiencies in the representation of chemistry and meteorology in research and operational models and how can models be improved through the collection of additional measurements?  What physical and chemical processes are not captured well by available models?  Is there an optimum grid resolution to capture all of the relevant physical and chemical processes that occur? • What are the important transport corridors for key chemical species and under what conditions is that transport important? • What is the relative roles of regional (North American) sources and long range transport (from East Asia) on aerosol forcing over California?

26. Flights & GHG Inventory

27. Supersite in Los Angeles • Jochen Stutz • Jose Jimenez • Joost de Gouw

28. Are there significant differences between Central Valley and South Coast Air Basin precursors or ozone formation chemistry? • The two areas in the State with the worst AQ have very different emissions and meteorology. • Will the same strategies have similar or different impacts on the two air basins? • Measurement of key radical and precursor species at a high ozone site in each air basin. • Concurrent flights by NOAA’s planes will link the measurements.

29. Supersite in SJV

30. PM10 Nitrate and Sulfate Summer, Jun-Sep 1998-2000 Motallebi et al, JAWMA, 53: 1517-1530

31. What emissions and processes lead to sulfate formation over California coastal waters and in urbanized coastal areas? • To what extent do natural emissions contribute to sulfate concentrations? • Are there sources and processes important to sulfate formation which are not in our inventory? • What is the role of emissions from ocean going vessels? • Are there differences between northern and southern California?

32. 2010 CalNex • NOAA and other collaborators will bring unique state-of-the-science capabilities to the State • NOAA’s platforms give large spatial extent and a very comprehensive suite of complementary measurements • Can benefit from California’s historical baselines and on-going monitoring