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Household trajectories in Ethiopia

Household trajectories in Ethiopia . What can a mixed methods approach tell us about the impact of poverty on children?. Laura Camfield and Keetie Roelen EADI-DSA Conference, September 2011. Poverty dynamics. Importance of timing as well as intensity and duration, especially for children

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Household trajectories in Ethiopia

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  1. Household trajectories in Ethiopia What can a mixed methods approach tell us about the impact of poverty on children? • Laura Camfield and Keetie Roelen EADI-DSA Conference, September 2011

  2. Poverty dynamics • Importance of timing as well as intensity and duration, especially for children • Need to understanding how and why people become/ remain/ exit poverty • e.g. critical assets, asset thresholds, liabilities • Importance of panel and qualitative data • e.g. Davis & Baulch (2011), Krishna (2009) • Broad conclusions, e.g. role of assets and shocks; need specific, detailed case studies See Shepherd ea (2011), Addison ea (2009), Narayan ea (2007), CPRC website

  3. Poverty dynamics in Ethiopia • Static picture misleading as • Seasonal variations in consumption and poverty (Krishna & Dercon, 2000) • Increasing inequality at all levels • Woldehanna ea (2008) – Tigray vs. the rest, younger vs. older • Devereux and Sharp (2006) – Wollo vs. national picture • Dercon (2006), 1989-95, 6 villages, fall in poverty overall but increase in poverty in 2 • Bigsten et al (2003:99), 1994-7, “potential poverty reduction ... counteracted by worsening income distribution” • Importance of Productive Safety Net Programme

  4. Mixed and case study methods • Different degrees of mixing • triangulation or ‘putting together’ • e.g. household survey AND life history • Sequential integration • e.g. focus group THEN survey THEN life history • Holistic integration • e.g. ‘extended case’, longitudinal case studies • Case study research • case ‘archive’ can be qual, quant, historical, etc. • can generate or test theoretical propositions through careful sampling (e.g. ‘critical cases’) and comparison • e.g. Burawoy-Zambia, Bevan-Ethiopia, Olsen-India

  5. Data • Young Lives, Ethiopia (rural sites only) • 3 rounds of quan data: 2002, 2006, 2009 • Qual data from 8 sites in 2007, 2008, 2009 • Creation of a taxonomy (Roelen & Camfield, 2011)

  6. Indicator deprivation rates

  7. Child poverty rates

  8. Child poverty dynamics

  9. Child poverty dynamics

  10. Significant characteristics of poverty mobility groups • Sex of child, age/ health status of hh head, ethnicity, frequency of contact with parents and dependency ratio were not significant

  11. Eight case studies

  12. Changes over the rounds

  13. Legesse, boy, TachMeret • Increasing prosperity -purchased donkeys, sharecropped-in irrigated land • More food – “I get to eat until I will be full” • But family work affecting health and marks: • “Sometimes [my parents] make me to drop out from my education and other times I get [too] tired to study. Therefore, carrying the stone is not good both for my education and for my health because it cuts my body [and] I feel pain on the back of my body” (2008, currently in Grade 5)

  14. Gabra, girl, TachMeret • Mother heads household, father died 2004 • Family picks grit from haricot beans • Initially she welcomed work: • “If I didn’t have a job, I couldn’t have attended class” • But it began to “share” her time for studying: • Then the work stopped • “we could not get the income as we were getting earlier [...] which resulted in lack of food” • By 2009 she was working 45 hrs per week and had missed 10 days of school to earn ETB 40 ($2.35) • Excluded from PSNP, although their land is sharecropped-out

  15. Conclusions • Households became wealthier from 2002 to 2009, despite global economic crises (57% to 25% poor/UP) • But 8% of households remained ultra-poor • Movements up – agricultural diversification, non-farm activities, remittances • Movements down – illness, share-cropping out land, PSNP exclusion • Children affected by duration and timing of poverty (Gabra, Naomi) • But increased wealth didn’t always benefit children (Legesse, Ephrem, Degife)

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