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Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned

Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned. Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang, Norm Possiel, Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS/EMAD Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. M3 User Workshop, 10/21/2002. OUTLINE.

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Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned

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  1. Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang, Norm Possiel, Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart Air Quality Modeling Group USEPA/OAQPS/EMAD Research Triangle Park, North Carolina M3 User Workshop, 10/21/2002

  2. OUTLINE • Applications and evaluations of Models-3/CMAQ at USEPA/OAQPS • Issues related to annual modeling of ozone and PM • Preliminary comparison results between CMAQ-2002 and -2001 releases • On-going and upcoming activities

  3. Models-3/CMAQ Applications and Evaluations at EPA/OAQPS • Western U.S. Application • Episodic O3, July 96, 36/12 km, evaluation, (AWMA 2001) • Annual Continental U.S. Application • 1-atmosphere, annual 1996, 36-km, evaluation & diagnostics, on-going for 2001, (AWMA 2001 & 2002) • Eastern U.S. Application • 1-atmosphere, July 95, urban applications, 36/12/4-km, emissions control & growth (on-going) • Intercontinental Transport modeling • Trans-Oceanic transport of air pollutants and nested U.S. & Asia/China modeling for year 2001

  4. Models-3/CMAQ Modeling: Domain Maps 36 km eastern US domain 4 km domain 12 km domain 12 km western US ozone domain 36 km western US ozone domain 36 km Annual National US domain

  5. Annual Continental U.S. Application • Features : • Annual CMAQ modeling over the continental U.S., “One-Atmosphere” • Model Setup : • Annual PM and O3 (1996) • 36-km, 8/12 vertical layers • Meteorology : MM5 • Emissions Processing: SMOKE • Model Evaluation: Compared against observed data (IMPROVE & CASTNET) & REMSAD • Papers published in AWMA (2001 & 2002)

  6. NOx Emissions SO2 Emissions July 1, 1996

  7. Run Time & Disk Space Requirementfor Annual CMAQ Simulation • CMAQ annual run time was ~14 days • 4 CPUs (400 MHz) Sun Workstations (Enterprise 450); Running 4 quarters of the year concurrently • ~4 hours/model day (8 layers) • Model-Ready Inputs/Outputs (entire year) • Emission (SMOKE/ECIP) : 40 GB • Meteorology (MM5/MCIP) : 100 GB • Outputs (M3/CMAQ) : 250 GB, compressed to 9 GB • The model runs >4 times faster on new Linux PCs • 1.6GHz AMD Athlon MP (single CPU) • Current modeling are transitioned to Linux PCs(parallel processing on the PC/Linux cluster is being investigated)

  8. Annual Continental U.S. CMAQ Modeling: O3(July Max in ppb, 1996) 56 99 149 62 134 76 132 139 137 107 126 119 131 215 127 144 113 194

  9. Annual CMAQ Modeling: Visibility(January Average in Deciview) 18 16 11 19 14 22 9 26 16 26 24 10 9 26 24 15 22 12 24 14 23

  10. Annual CMAQ Modeling: Wet Deposition Nitrogen Wet Deposition Sulfur Wet Deposition (January average)

  11. Models-3/CMAQ Simulation: Annual Average PM 2.5 Sulfate PM Organic PM Nitrate PM

  12. Annual Average: Total PM 2.5 mass Model Observation (IMPROVE)

  13. Annual Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC) SO4 NO3 Model OC Observation

  14. Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (July) Sulfate PM PM 2.5 Organic PM Nitrate PM

  15. Summer Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC) SO4 Model NO3 OC Observation

  16. Models-3/CMAQ : Monthly Average (January) Sulfate PM PM 2.5 Organic PM Nitrate PM

  17. Winter Average: PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC) NO3 SO4 Model OC Observation

  18. Annual CMAQ Modeling: CB4 vs. RADM2 Nitrate PM(January avg, 1996)

  19. Annual CMAQ Modeling: CB4 vs. RADM2 Sulfate PM(July avg, 1996)

  20. NH3 Sensitivity Modeling Base 50% NH3 reduction 0.62 0.70 0.09 0.08 0.53 1.69 1.16 1.24 Nitrate PM: (January Avg, 1996)

  21. On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG • Continue model evaluation and sensitivity test for the annual 1996 continental US run • Examine nitrate and organic PM issues • Emissions issues (NH3, BEIS3, Fire, CA emis. etc.) • Vertical layer sensitivity (8-14 layers) • Nitrate nighttime chemistry issue • “N2O5 + H2O --> 2HNO3” and “NO2 + OH --> HNO3” • Dry deposition Issue • Vertical diffusion sensitivity

  22. On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.) • Modeling support for regulatory analysis • Clear Skies Initiative (on-going) • PM Transport Rule (2002/03) • Nonroad Rule (2002/03) • Section 812 CAAA Prospective Update (2003) • 8-Hour Ozone Implementation Guidance (2002/03) • PM NAAQS Review (2003) • Regional Haze Rule (on-going)

  23. On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.) • Improvement of base model simulation • Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12 layers) • Monthly NH3 emissions adjustments from animal husbandry & fertilizer operations (based on ORD inverse modeling) • BEIS-3/BELD-3 • NOx emissions from new Nonroad model • California NOx & VOC emission adjustments • Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE • Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July 2002)

  24. National 1996 CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Peak Ozone (July 1996)

  25. Annual CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Sulfate PM (Monthly average, July 1996)

  26. Annual CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Nitrate PM (Monthly average, January 1996)

  27. Annual CMAQ Modeling: Old Base vs. New Base Organic PM (July 1996) 8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ Anthropogenic SOA Biogenic SOA (BEIS2 vs. BEIS3)

  28. Spring Summer CMAQ Seasonal Ozone (8-hr max) Evaluation Model Fall Winter Observation

  29. Spring Summer CMAQ Seasonal Sulfate PM Evaluation Model Observation Fall Winter

  30. Spring Summer CMAQ Seasonal Organic PM Evaluation Model Fall Winter Observation

  31. Spring Summer CMAQ Seasonal Nitrate PM Evaluation Model Fall Winter Observation

  32. Spring Summer CMAQ Seasonal Total NO3 (HNO3 + Nitrate PM) Evaluation Model Fall Winter Observation

  33. CMAQ vs. IMPROVE Model performance : Annual average

  34. Nitrate Nighttime Chemistry Sensitivity “N2O5 HNO3” rxn rate(sensitivity test) CB-IV SAPRC-99 (January Average)

  35. Kv(vertical diffusion) Sensitivity Base Kv(min) = 5 Kv(min) = 1, Stableup to 3rd layer, ~230 m (January Average)

  36. NH3 Dry Deposition Issue in CMAQ NH3 Dry Dep. (Vd) Air Temp. (January 19, 2002)

  37. On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG (contd.) • Improvement of base model simulation • Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12 layers) • Monthly NH3 emissions adjustments from animal husbandry & fertilizer operations (based on ORD inverse modeling) • BEIS-3/BELD-3 • NOx emissions from new Nonroad model • California NOx & VOC emission adjustments • Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE • Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July 2002) • Computer time issue (runtime doubled) • Nitrate PM overprediction issue • Organic PM/Biogenic SOA issue

  38. Difference (CMAQ/2002 – CMAQ/2001) D PM 2.5 D Nitrate PM (January avg.)

  39. Nitrate PM CMAQ-2001 (AE2) CMAQ-2002 (AE3) (January avg.)

  40. Difference (CMAQ/2002 – CMAQ/2001) D PM 2.5 D Biogenic SOA (July avg.)

  41. Anthropogenic SOA Biogenic SOA 6 ug/m3 2 ug/m3 CMAQ- 2001 (AE2) CMAQ- 2002 (AE3) (July avg.)

  42. Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG • Annual National CMAQ run for year 2001 • 2001 MM5 & NEI emissions thru SMOKE • Model evaluation against expanded PM speciation network (TREND, IMPROVE, etc.) • “Intercontinental Transport of Climatic Effect of Air Pollutants” (ICAP) Project • Modeling of trans-oceanic pollutant transport • Nested modeling over East Asia/China Region

  43. “Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP)” : USEPA Modeling Initiative NASA/MOPPIT: CO Transport

  44. Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP)

  45. Air Quality Modeling over China : Ozone

  46. Air Quality Modeling over China : PM PM 2.5 Sulfate PM Organic PM Nitrate PM

  47. Air Quality Modeling over China Sulfate Wet Deposition Visibility (Deciview)

  48. Take Home Message • PM 2.5 modelingmore complex thanO3 modeling • Multi-species vs. single species • SO2, NOx, VOC, or NH3-limited vs. VOC or NOx-limted • Annual vs. summer pollutants • Day + nighttimechemistry vs. daytime chemistry • “Gas + aqueous + aerosol” chemistry vs. gas chemistry • Organic PM modeling is still a research issue • Emission (e.g. NH3, fire, Biogenic) & monitoring issues (e.g., OC/EC, nitrate) and provide further modeling challenge • O3 and PM are highly linked, “one-atmosphere” modeling is necessary

  49. 50% NOx reduction Nitrate PM Sulfate PM --(decrease) -- (decrease) (July Average, 1996)

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