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October 8, 2007 Hunter Rock Mike Ohrnberger

October 8, 2007 Hunter Rock Mike Ohrnberger. Table of Contents. Quick Facts Company Overview Corporate Governance Financial Ratio Comparison Stock Performance Stock Valuation Valuation by Comparables FCF Valuation Debt Issue Recent News/Developments Analyst Recommendations

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October 8, 2007 Hunter Rock Mike Ohrnberger

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  1. October 8, 2007 Hunter Rock Mike Ohrnberger

  2. Table of Contents • Quick Facts • Company Overview • Corporate Governance • Financial Ratio Comparison • Stock Performance • Stock Valuation • Valuation by Comparables • FCF Valuation • Debt Issue • Recent News/Developments • Analyst Recommendations • Summary and Conclusions • Recommendation

  3. Quick Facts • Industry: Aerospace/Defense Products and Services • Sector: Industrial Goods • Price as of 10:30 am - $106.99 • 52-week high/low: $75.50 / $119.95 • Beta: 0.78 • Market Cap: $3.77 billion • Shares Outstanding : 33.60 million • Dividend (Yield): N/A • P/E Ratio: 19.50 • PEG Ratio: 1.65 • *Yahoo Finance

  4. Company Overview • “Alliant Techsystems contracts with the U.S. government, allied nations, and prime contractors to provide supplies for aerospace and defense products. It also supplies ammunition and related accessories to law enforcement agencies.” - Yahoo finance • Strategy: “To build on our core businesses of conventional munitions and rocket mortars and grow as the leading provider of advanced weapon and space systems.” - www.atk.com • The company is segmented into 3 departments. They are: Mission System Group, Amunition System Group, and Launch System Group.

  5. Company Overview (cont.) • It’s two closest competitors are General Dynamics and Raytheon. However, ATK must also compete with much larger aerospace and defense conglomerates such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. • The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Edina, Minnesota. • There are 16,500 employees and the company has facilities in 21 states and representatives in 50 countries.

  6. Financial Ratio Comparisons

  7. Stock Performance

  8. Stock Valuation *Numbers as of March 31, 2007. *Average Stock Price excluding Zero-Growth Model = $147.49

  9. Valuation by Comparables

  10. FCF Valuation

  11. Debt Issue

  12. Debt Issue (cont)

  13. Recent News/Developments • 10/3/2007- ATK announces the hiring of Michael Bloomfield, a former NASA astronaut and deputy director of NASA flight operations, has been named Vice President, Constellation Systems in its Launch Systems Group. Additionally, Bloomfield will head the new company facility in Houston. • 10/2/2007- ATK has successfully tested the first series of space parachutes for NASA’s Ares 1 program which is designed to carry humans to the moon. • *Yahoo Finance

  14. News (cont.) • 10/1/2007- ”Alliant Techsystems announced today that Brian Cullin has joined the company as Senior Vice President, Corporate Communications, reporting to Chairman and CEO, Dan Murphy. Mr. Cullin brings 30 years of national and international communications experience to ATK, serving at the most senior levels of the White House, National Security Council, and Department of Defense. He most recently was the Director of Communications for Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute, one of the nation's premiere think tanks.” • *Yahoo Finance

  15. Analyst Recommendations • Mean Recommendation - 2.3 • Mean 1 yr. Target - $117.70 • From last month to this month analyst sentiment has not changed with 4 recommending Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 8 Hold. • It’s position with institutional buyers has largely remained unchanged recently with only a slight increase in purchasers.

  16. Analyst Recommendation (cont)

  17. Summary and Conclusions • The recent hirings provide ATK with veritable advantages in gaining new government contracts. • Given its size relative to the major competitors in the industry, financially ATK is strong. • Their debt situation is a result of research and development expenditures and acquisitions, but with stable credit ratings and the possibility of a rate cut in the future, this may be a non-issue.

  18. Summary (cont.) • The models indicate that ATK may be undervalued and the stock performance has been historically strong. • In addition to its primary munitions business, ATK is somewhat hedged through its other business lines. • Its corporate governance is strong and we feel that the stock stays in line with the Socially Responsible Investment clause.

  19. Recommendation • BUY • With the sale of Ceradyne, SMIP is lacking an aerospace/defense company • The stock is relatively speculative in nature and can fit in well with our Mega-Cap portfolio

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