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Biofuel Demand Projections In the Annual Energy Outlook

Biofuel Demand Projections In the Annual Energy Outlook. For The Forestry and Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum, Workshop #4 March 7 th , 2007 A. Michael Schaal, Director Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Michael.Schaal@eia.doe.gov.

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Biofuel Demand Projections In the Annual Energy Outlook

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  1. Biofuel Demand Projections In the Annual Energy Outlook For The Forestry and Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum, Workshop #4 March 7th, 2007 A. Michael Schaal, Director Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Michael.Schaal@eia.doe.gov

  2. Basic NEMS Structure Macroeconomic Activity Module International Energy Activity Module Oil and Gas Supply Module Residential Sector Demand Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Commercial Sector Demand Module Integrating Module Transportation Sector Demand Module Coal Market Module Industrial Sector Demand Module Renewable Fuels Module Electricity Market Module Petroleum Market Module Supply Components Conversion Components Demand Components

  3. World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  4. U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections Liquid Fuels & Other Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  5. U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  6. Consumption of Liquids and Other Petroleum Products by Sector, 1970-2030 (million barrels per day) History Projections Transportation Industrial Residential and Commercial Electric Power Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  7. U.S. Petroleum/Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) History Projections 61% Consumption Net Imports 60% Domestic Supply Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  8. Distinct Markets for Biofuels • Octane/clean components • Lowest price sensitivity: “must have” item. • Example: Demand for ethanol in the aftermath of the phaseout of MTBE in spring 2006 • Volume enhancement • Price competition with conventional fuels on a volume (per gallon) basis • Key drivers include oil prices, biofuels tax benefits, and biofuels feedstock prices • Energy Market • Price competition with conventional fuels on an energy content (per Btu) basis • Sensitive to availability of fuel and vehicle infrastructure

  9. Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended with Motor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons) History Projections Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline AEO2007 Ethanol in E85 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  10. Key Questions for Biofuels • Cost • Feedstock costs • Capital costs • Scalability • The biomass supply curve is upward sloping, although its location can shift over time • The liquid fuels sector is very “large” relative to the biomass sector • Displacement of even a modest share of petroleum use requires massive amounts of biomass • Credits

  11. Ethanol Supply by Source, 2003-2030 (billion gallons) Imports History Projections Cellulose Based RFS Corn Based Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  12. Impact of Alternative Fuels Mandates: Details Matter Alternative Fuel Mandate Provisions • Safety valve provisions • What fuels are included, and at what ratios • Potential role of imports supplies Other policies and market factors • Oil prices • Vehicle and fuel infrastructure considerations • Trends in yield improvements • Agricultural and land use policies • Rate of cost reduction in advanced biofuels technologies

  13. Cellulose Ethanol Production Under Lower Cost Scenarios, 2005-2030 (billion gallons per year) Lower Cost, High Price Lower Cost, Reference Energy Price High Price

  14. Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil Shale Production in the Price Cases, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) History Projections Coal to Liquids/ High price Coal to Liquids/ Reference Oil Shale/High price Gas to Liquids/ High price Annual Energy Outlook 2007

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