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The Demography of Ageing

The Demography of Ageing. Professor Jane Falkingham ESRC Centre for Population Change & Centre for Research on Ageing www.southampton.ac.uk/ageing. The Demography of Ageing. Key trends UK population is ageing

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The Demography of Ageing

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  1. The Demography of Ageing Professor Jane Falkingham ESRC Centre for Population Change & Centre for Research on Ageing www.southampton.ac.uk/ageing

  2. The Demography of Ageing Key trends • UK population is ageing • Number of 65+ in England will increase by 65% in next 25 years (from 9 million in 2012 to 15 million in 2037) • The older population is also ageing rapidly • Increasing life expectancy at older ages; pop. aged 90+ in England will increase by 230% (from 438,000 in 2012 to 1,446,000 in 2037) • Increasing diversity • ageing of our ethnic minority population (Windrush generation) • Changes in living arrangements • Improved mortality  decreased widowhood, but rising divorce • Rising solo living, esp. for men - the number of people over 85 living on their own is expected to grow from 573,000 today to 1.4 million in 2032 • ?? Reliance on continuing supply of family carers

  3. Fig 1: Proportion of Britain’spopulation aged 65 plus (%), 1901-2041 Source: ONS Population Trends and Population Projections (selected volumes).

  4. Fig 2: UK Births, 1921 to 2001 Source: ONS Birth Statistics (selected volumes).

  5. Fig 3: Trends in life expectancy at 65 amongst the best performing countries over past 170 years

  6. Fig 5: Number of very old (90 plus) by age and gender, UK 2013 Today, over 475,000 people in the UK are aged 90 or more Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mortality-ageing/estimates-of-the-very-old--including-centenarians-/2002---2013--england-and-wales--united-kingdom-/stb-2002-2013-estimates-of-the-very-old.html

  7. Fig 6: Population aged 100 years and over, UK, 1965-2013 Today, over 13,780 people in the UK are aged 100 or more; of these 710 are aged 105 or older Source: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mortality-ageing/estimates-of-the-very-old--including-centenarians-/2002---2013--england-and-wales--united-kingdom-/stb-2002-2013-estimates-of-the-very-old.html

  8. Fig 7: Projected population aged 85 and over, UK 2012, 2025 and 2035 Source: ONS (2014) National Population Projections, 2012-based projections

  9. Table 1: Age at which at least 50 percent of a birth cohort is still alive Source: Vaupel, 2010

  10. Are we ageing healthier?Percentage reporting difficulties with one or more activities of daily living, 2002 and 2012 ELSA Respondents were asked if they had any difficulty with any of the following because of a mental, physical, emotional or memory problem: dressing, including putting on shoes and socks; walking across a room; bathing or showering; eating, such as cutting up food; getting into or out of bed; using the toilet, including getting up or down.

  11. Ageing healthier? • In 2013, there were 815,827 people with dementia in the UK (Alzheimer’s Society, 2014). This is forecast to increase to 1.1 million by 2025 (+40%) and 2 million by 2051 (+156%). • The number of people in England with three or more long-term conditions is predicted to rise from 1.9 million in 2008 to 2.9 million in 2018 (Kings Fund). • Persons with learning difficulties also ageing, as are their parent-carers.

  12. Living arrangements matter • % 65+ living alone deceased from 34% in 2001 Census to 31% in 2011 Census But • Proportion 65+ divorced increased from 5% to 9%; • this reflects a rise of 70% in the number of divorces amongst men 60+ since 1991 • CPC research on living alone in mid-life highlights group of older men with low economic & social resources – warning sign for the future • Moreover, increasing rates of childlessness in the future

  13. Table 4: number of children ever bornby birth cohort of women, England & Wales Number of children at age 45 Source: ONS (2014) Birth Statistics

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