Climate Change and Arctic Urban Sustainability: index-based assessment

1. Climate Change and Arctic Urban Sustainability: index-based assessment NEFU Oleg Anisimov1, Vasily Kokorev1, Yuriy Zhegusov2 1State Hydrological Institute, St.Petersburg, Russia 2North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia Oleg@oa7661.spb.edu

2. Cities in the Russian North 370 villages and settlements in the tundra zone, 15 cities with population over 100,000 people, 7 mln Russian Arctic residents (72% of the Arctic population) Norilsk Yakutsk, February 2015 Salekhard, June 2012

3. Two-fold role of climate in the urban Arctic Climate as a risk factor Climate as a resource • cold/heat waves • abrupt changes • accidents and diseases • freeze/thaw oscillations • ice jams and floods • structures on permafrost • ice roads • heating energy demand • transportation costs • hydropower generation • northern agriculture • urban green areas • outdoor activities and recreation

4. Changes in physical climate regime since 1980s • 0.4 °C/10y (summer) - 0.9 °C/10y (winter) temperature rise • 1.4 – 2.6 °C/10y annual minima vs 0.6 °C/10y maxima temperature rise • Increase in snow depth in the European North and West Siberia (10%-20%), Chukotka (+30%), and decrease in east Siberia (-20%). • 10% increase in discharge of Siberian rivers • 1.2 – 4.5 d/10y reduction in duration of the ice period on rivers • 13% per 10 years reduction in the sea ice extent • Warming and thawing of permafrost Implications for urban sustainability • Less severe winters have positive effect on human health • Reduced demand for heating energy • Increased potential for hydropower generation vsrisk of floods • Longer navigation season on rivers and NSR vsreduced use of ice roads • Destructive impacts of thawing permafrost on infrastructure

5. Duration of the i-th season LIi = duration of the year Length Indexes (LI) Seasons defined as: • cold, with daily-mean temperature below 0 °C • warm, with daily-mean temperature above 0 °C • growing, with daily-mean temperature above 5 °C • heating, with daily-mean temperature below 8 °C • heat wave (temperature at all times above 24 °C) • snow, river ice break, etc.

6. 2001-2010 Case Study: Heating period. (Khlebnikkova and Sall, 2013) Changes in the demand for heating energy (%) relative to 1981-1990 baseline period. 2050 Period length

7. Case study: Cold season parameters Duration of the cold period, d/year Freezing point crossings, d/year

8. Variability Indexes (VI) Number of abrupt meteorological changes VIi = Duration of the season Abrupt temperature changes: • freezing point temperature crossing • Inter-daily temperature oscillations (greater than 5 °C and 10 °C daily-mean temperature change per 24 hours)

9. Number of days with large inter-daily temperature variation, d/year ΔT>5 °C ΔT>10 °C

10. Case study: freezing point crossing, Yakutsks, 14 May +179 injuries on May 14 http://ysia.ru/

11. Climate Sustainability Index (CSI) Climate type Winter Summer Continental dry -20 to -40 +15 to +25 Moderate semi-arid -10 to -25 +15 to +20 Marine humid -5 to -15 +10 to +15 Number of days with conventional weather CSI = duration of the period Conventional weather: absence of abrupt weather changes and extreme events; daily temperature in the site- and season-specific comfort range,etc. Comfort temperature range for the Arctic cities, °C

12. Winter days in different temperature ranges, (%) < -25° C -10°C to -25° C -1°C to -10° C

13. Bioclimatic parameters Growing temperature sums, °C×days Growing period length, days Naryan-Mar Murmansk Salekhard Dudinka Khatinga Anadyr

14. 1.barrens 9.mixed forest 2.graminoids 10.broad leave forest 3.prostrate-shrub 11.steppe 4.erect-shrub 12.semi-desert 5.pre-tundra 13.alpine tundra 6.northern taiga 14.open woodlands 7.middle taiga 8.southern taiga 15.alpine taiga Permafrost/Vegetation projections Regions with critical impacts 1901-1980 2016-2045 Vegetation zones 2 °C warmer climate (2031-2060) Territory affected by critical changes under 2 °C warmer climate (Anisimov et al., 2011)

15. Changes of climate indexes over the 1978-2014 period

16. Points of sociological survey, 2011-2015 (1580 resp.) Saskylakh Yakutsk Aldan Neryungry Ust-Maya

17. <-0.4 -0.4 – -0.2 -0.2 – 0.0 0.0 – 0.2 0.2 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.6 0.6 – 0.8 0.8 – 1.0 >1.0 Question: did winters become warmer? Air temperature trend,winter, 1978-2013 period

18. <-0.4 -0.4 – -0.2 -0.2 – 0.0 0.0 – 0.2 0.2 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.6 0.6 – 0.8 0.8 – 1.0 >1.0 Air temperature trend,summer, 1978-2013 period Question: did summers become colder?

19. <-4 -4 – -2 -2 – 0 0 – 2 2 – 4 4 – 6 6 – 8 8 – 10 >10 Summer precipitation trend, 1978-2013 period,mm/month in 10 years Question: did summers become more rainy?

20. <-4 -4 – -2 -2 – 0 0 – 2 2 – 4 4 – 6 6 – 8 8 – 10 >10 Question: did snowfall increase? Winter precipitation trend, 1978-2013 period,mm/month in 10 years

21. ClimateChange Perception Index (CCPI) ∑ (ranks by each criteria) CCPI = Number of criteria CCPI characterizes public perception of climate change. It supplements the Traditional Ecological Knowledge and expands it over the state of the Arctic urban environment Criteria used: • Winter and summer temperature changes • Changes in snowfall and rain • Changes in severity and frequency of floods • Changes in the timing of seasons • Abrupt temperature change

22. Climate Change Perception Index [CCPI]

23. Thank you! This study is supported by the research council of Norway, ARCSUS grant TA:34306/1/ECNS21015N