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How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals

How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals. Annie Petsonk, International Counsel, September 2014. ~ 30,000 new large aircraft by 2032. Aviation: 2% of global CO 2 emissions today, but forecasted to quadruple in coming years.

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How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals

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  1. How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals Annie Petsonk, International Counsel, September 2014

  2. ~ 30,000 new large aircraft by 2032

  3. Aviation: 2% of global CO2 emissions today, but forecasted to quadruple in coming years

  4. OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: International Civil Aviation Organization “Four pillars” on emissions: - technology - operations - alt. fuels - market-based measure (MBM) …with a 2016 deadline for a single global MBM

  5. Source: IATA Industry’s view

  6. MBM: The Players ICSA Industry ICAO ICAO • -193 countries • -Montreal HQ • -36-state Council • -17-state EAG • CAEP • Steering Group • - GMTF • - MRV • - Units • - AFTF -IATA: 85% int’l air travel -Geneva/Montreal HQ -Nat’l/regional groups -Manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, GE, UTC, etc.) -Airports, air navigation -Business jets Overall: a powerful, well-financed lobby that sees it must address GHG emissions -EDF a co-founder -T&E -AEF(UK) -GermanWatch -CarbonMarketWatch -NRDC -WWF -ICCT USEPA Endangerment Finding, CO2 standard (litigation brought by EJ, CBD Others (IETA, VCS, UNFCCC, etc.)

  7. Industry’s goals

  8. Industry’s analysis Source: IATA

  9. The Challenges • Develop policy options that: • Address Common but Differential growth in regional air traffic post-2020, • By ensuring that participating jurisdictions can offer high-quality emissions units, encourage broad engagement, • minimize overall compliance costs. • While UNFCCC moves toward Paris 2015, maintain momentum in ICAO toward 2016

  10. Carbon Markets & Aviation ?? …to build a winning coalition in ICAO

  11. If airlines move early, CNG2020 would add $1.5-$2.5 to CDG-JFK ticket in 2030, but if they wait, the cost goes up Integrated Market (CASE 2) Parallel Market (CASE 1) 2030 NOTE:Central traffic growth scenario; international emission reductions target: 50% emissions cut by 2050; no auction; upper and lower estimates for case 1 and 2 depend on in-sector abatement. Lower (green) bars; airlines may start purchasing emissions units today, before other sectors. Upper (blue) bars: airlines wait until after 2020 to purchase emissions units and face maximum competition. Source: EDF analysis.

  12. شكراً!Gracias! Obligado! Thank you! For more information, please contact: Annie Petsonk, apetsonk@edf.org +1-202-365-3237 Photo: www.momscleanairforce.org

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