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The NCEP Climate Forecast System & Experimental Predictions for the Caribbean

The NCEP Climate Forecast System & Experimental Predictions for the Caribbean. Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Outline. NCEP Operational Forecasting System Climate Forecast System Experimental predictions for the Caribbean.

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The NCEP Climate Forecast System & Experimental Predictions for the Caribbean

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  1. The NCEP Climate Forecast System & Experimental Predictions for the Caribbean Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  2. Outline • NCEP Operational Forecasting System • Climate Forecast System • Experimental predictions for the Caribbean

  3. NCEP Operational Forecasting System

  4. Source: CPC Prediction Branch

  5. MAM 2011 Forecast and Verification

  6. NCEP Climate Forecast System

  7. Climate Forecast System V1 vs. V2 Wanqiu Wang

  8. SST Biases for JAS CFS V2 CFS V1

  9. SST Biases for JAS CFS V2 CFS V1

  10. NCEP CFSv1 and CFSv2 NINO3.4 Forecast • CFSv2 suggests La Nina will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Apr-Jun 2012. • CFSv1 predicted La Nina to continue into summer/fall from Dec 2011 I.C., but it predicted a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Apr-Jun 2012 from Jan 2012 I.C., consistent with the CFSv2 prediction. Source: CPC’s Global Ocean Briefing

  11. NOAA Official ENSO Forecast • NOAA “ENSO Diagnostic Discussion” suggests La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during Mar-May 2012. Source: CPC’s Global Ocean Briefing

  12. NCEP CFSv1 and CFSv2 Tropical North Atlantic SST Forecast • CFSv2 (CFSv1) suggests tropical North Atlantic SST to be above-normal (below-normal) during summer 2012, favorable (unfavorable) for Atlantic hurricane activity. Source: CPC’s Global Ocean Briefing

  13. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) SST Forecast for JJA 2012 (Dec 2011 I.C.) CFSv1 CFSv2 Ensemble Mean of 7 Models CFSv1 CFSv2 ECHAMA ECHAMF GFDL NCAR NASA NMME Source: CPC’s Global Ocean Briefing

  14. Experimental Predictions for the Caribbean

  15. CFS Skill Assessment – AMJ SeasonFebruary IC

  16. CFS Skill Assessment –JAS SeasonFebruary IC

  17. CFS V2 Forecasts Feb 2012 IC Departures from climatological probabilities MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO

  18. Thank youwassila.thiaw@noaa.gov

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