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Rapidly declining production on the NCS

2008. Rapidly declining production on the NCS. Gas. Production Million Sm3 o.e. per year Reserves and resources in fields reported to RNB. Oil. Production from producing fields will be halved by 2023

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Rapidly declining production on the NCS

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  1. 2008 Rapidly declining production on the NCS • Gas • Production • Million Sm3 o.e. per year • Reserves and resources in fields reported to RNB • Oil • Production from producing fields will be halved by 2023 • Production levels can be kept higher through a higher recovery rate from the reservoir reserves and new discoveries Ref.: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

  2. Discoveries <5 mill. Sm3 o.e. • Discoveries 5-10 mill.Sm3 o.e. • Discoveries 10-15 mill.Sm3 o.e. • Discoveries 50-100 mill. Sm3 o.e. • Discoveries >100 mill.Sm3 o.e. The easy oil has been discovered • Million Sm3 o.e • 2.739 • 2.208 • 1.503 • 1.223 • 863 • 471 • 469 • 235 • 1967-1971 • 1972-1976 • 1977-1981 • 1982-1986 • 1987-1991 • 1992-1996 • 1997-2001 • 2002-2006 Ref.: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

  3. Low rate of reserve replacement on the Norwegian Shelf • Resource growth • Production Annual resource growth and productionMill. Sm3 o.e • 1990 • 1991 • 1992 • 1993 • 1994 • 1995 • 1996 • 1997 • 1998 • 1999 • 2000 • 2001 • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 • 2005 • 2006 Ref.: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

  4. 1,7 How much more can we expect to find? Estimates for undiscovered resource potential on the NCS contain considerable uncertainty …Mill. Sm3 … especially for less mature areas Undiscovered resources, Mill. Sm3 • Undiscovered resources • Barents Sea • Contingent resources, measures • Norw.Sea • Sold and delivered • North Sea • 16,9 • 13,2 • 6,6 • 6,6 • 3,4 • 10,6 • 1,3 • 5,7 • 5,2 • 4,7 • 3,4 • 1,3 • 4,6 • 4,6 • 4,6 • P90 • Anticipated • P10 • P90 • Anticipated • P10 Ref.: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

  5. Ormen Lange Statfjord Ekofisk Oseberg Troll The story so far

  6. Ekofisk Statfjord Oseberg Gullfaks Ormen Lange Åsgard Eldfisk Snorre What’s in the bank

  7. Viktoria Skarv Gjøa Onyx Gudrun Goliat Vega Stetind Valemon Peon What’s on the shelf

  8. 0,5 . . . but long-term production is depends on exploration • NPD forecast for overall production, 2007-2026 • Mill. b.o.e. a day • Base estimate assumes considerable production of oil&gas from undiscovered resources already in 10-15 years • 5,0 • 4,5 • 2.5 x Ormen Lange • 8 x Goliat • Conditions to enable this: Clarification of the resource potential on the NCS • Access to unopened areas from 2010 at the latest • 4,0 • Resources in discoveries • 3,5 • Undiscovered resources • Resources in field • 3,0 • 2,5 • 2,0 • Reserves • 1,5 • 1,0 • 0,5 • New field development projects crucial to maintaining and developing the industrial complex • 0 • 07 • 08 • 09 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • Yr. Ref.: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate; Project group 1

  9. 1.101,0 Prospect type # of wells Total volume ILX 537,6 Growth 124 1.406,5 Ormen Lange 744,0 Frontier 30 939,7 195,7 Total 252 2.883,8 Where are the recent discoveries? 2 Bbbl discovered in established petroleum provinces MBOE rec, equity

  10. The reliable volumes

  11. Striving for business impactBirds and elephants • Frontier areas - high return when successful • Prioritising the right prospects • Established provinces - volume predictions reliable, but moderate per well • High well count gives higher returns

  12. Drilling Candidates Dropped prospects Making the right decisions – together

  13. ILX challenge is the threshold level The UK history indicates that in the proven petroleum provinces more wells = more volumes – but the discovery sizes will be small…

  14. Mboe / d OPEX Delayed field close down if new resources Field close down if no new resources Threshold level Prospect A 2005 2010 2015 Extending field life and maximizing recovery

  15. Need the best new acreage • To effectively determine the resource potential, the industry must have access to the most prospective acreage • Nordland VI and VII have been identified as the top priority area with the best and most certain potential Ref.: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

  16. Picking the best acreage - together • 20th round • 301 blocks are nominated by the companies; 129 in Barents Sea, 164 in the Norwegian Sea and 8 in the North Sea • 46 companies nominated blocks compared to 19 in the 19th round

  17. Securing capacity and doing it right - together • Market • Safe, efficient and green operations • Co-existence

  18. Exploration revived?

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