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CHEBS Activities and Plans

CHEBS Activities and Plans. Tony O’Hagan Director. What is CHEBS?. An official interdisciplinary research centre of the University of Sheffield A collaboration that builds on a unique combination of strengths Bayesian Statistics – Department of Probability and Statistics

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CHEBS Activities and Plans

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  1. CHEBS Activities and Plans Tony O’Hagan Director CHEBS Launch Seminar

  2. What is CHEBS? • An official interdisciplinary research centre of the University of Sheffield • A collaboration that builds on a unique combination of strengths • Bayesian Statistics – Department of Probability and Statistics • Health Economics – ScHARR • Operational Research – ScHARR CHEBS Launch Seminar

  3. CHEBS’ Mission • To engage in innovative research, developing methodology based on Bayesian statistics for solution of problems in health economics • To set standards for statistical analysis of health economic data and models • To promote dialogue with the pharmaceutical industry, including consultancy and training • To influence best practice in presentation of health economic information to regulators and health care providers CHEBS Launch Seminar

  4. CHEBS Activities • Primary research • CHEBS Research Fellow • Focus Fortnights • Invited visiting experts • Dissemination workshop • Strategic research themes • Evidence Synthesis • Value of Information • Elicitation • Costs … CHEBS Launch Seminar

  5. CHEBS Activities • Short courses • Research contracts, participating in: • Department of Health – Multiple Sclerosis • NICE – Decision Support Unit CHEBS Launch Seminar

  6. CHEBS Base Funding • Base funding from sponsors • pays for Research Fellows, Focus Fortnights, administrative costs, etc. • Ensures academic freedom • informed by needs of sponsors and other stakeholders • Sponsors benefit from • briefings and seminars, • access to a unique blend of expertise CHEBS Launch Seminar

  7. Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics Some research areas: • Trial design and analysis • Modelling costs • Quantifying uncertainty & evidence synthesis • Outcomes – QoL estimation and uncertainty • Sensitivity and VoI analysis of economic models CHEBS Launch Seminar

  8. Trial design and analysis • Design • Must use prior information! • More rational design criteria • Sequential design • Analysis • Can use prior information • More accurate modelling • More interpretable inferences CHEBS Launch Seminar

  9. Modelling costs • Cost distributions are highly skew • Sample sizes are often small • Conventional robust methods … • Normal distributions • Bootstrapping • … are criterion robust but not inference robust • Sample means are inefficient and sensitive to outliers • Tails matter CHEBS Launch Seminar

  10. Quantifying uncertainty & evidence synthesis • Uncertainty has many sources • Only Bayesian methods can quantify and account for all kinds of uncertainty • Randomness • Lack of knowledge • Synthesising evidence from diverse sources requires careful consideration of uncertainties • Bayesian analysis of primary data feeds into economic models CHEBS Launch Seminar

  11. Outcomes • Utilities • Bayesian methods can better estimate utility functions from raw preference data • Uncertainty in the estimated utilities can be quantified CHEBS Launch Seminar

  12. Sensitivity & VoI analyses • Sensitivity analysis • Parameter distributions intrinsically Bayesian • Evidence synthesis • Efficient propagation of uncertainty through models • Detailed analysis of sensitivity to individual parameters or groups of parameters • Value of information analysis • EVPI • EVSI CHEBS Launch Seminar

  13. The future is Bayesian • Demand for Bayesian methods is increasing at a spectacular rate • Driven by … conceptual advantages • Bayesian inferences answer the question • … practical advantages • Able to use all available information • … computational advantages • Able to tackle more complex models and data CHEBS Launch Seminar

  14. The future is Bayesian • This is happening in many fields • Specially in younger disciplines like health economics • Barriers to acceptance are crumbling • Regulators increasingly open to Bayesian methods • Bayes has achieved academic respectability • Inertia is still a problem! • Remaining barriers are being addressed • Lack of software is a damper on take-up • Clearer guidelines are needed on priors CHEBS Launch Seminar

  15. The future is multidisciplinary • Many skills must come together • Statistics • Economics • Modelling/OR • Decision analysis • Clinical/pharmaceutical/… • Sociology/psychology CHEBS Launch Seminar

  16. The future is multidisciplinary • Many stakeholders’ interests must be recognised • Patients • Industry • Practitioners • Taxpayers CHEBS Launch Seminar

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