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Agenda 11.00 Opening and welcome 11.15 Short project introduction: overview and current progress

Agenda 11.00 Opening and welcome 11.15 Short project introduction: overview and current progress 11.30 The STEPs modelling results and their significance (led by TRT) 13.00 Lunch 14.30 Dealing with the outcomes: Evaluation and assessment of completed scenarios (led by UPM-TRANSYT)

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Agenda 11.00 Opening and welcome 11.15 Short project introduction: overview and current progress

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  1. Agenda 11.00 Opening and welcome 11.15 Short project introduction: overview and current progress 11.30 The STEPs modelling results and their significance (led by TRT) 13.00 Lunch 14.30 Dealing with the outcomes: Evaluation and assessment of completed scenarios (led by UPM-TRANSYT) 16.30 Closure

  2. Contents • Short introduction in the project and the partners • Current state of affairs • The target of today’s meeting

  3. 1 Short introduction • STEPs: Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effects • Funded by EC Directorate-General Research • Sixth Framework Programme Research and Technological development (FP6) • ‘Sustainable Surface Transport’ Priority • Communication Action, combining • primary research • dissemination and communication activities

  4. Introduction (2)

  5. Introduction (3) STEPs objectives • To develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply • To assess and evaluate the impacts of the scenarios • To use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supply

  6. Introduction (4) STEPs will attempt to answer questions such as • What are maximum achievements toward substitution of fossil fuels, in terms of: • energy consumption by energy type • greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) • share of fossil and renewable energy • Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets? • What are the transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns at European, national and local level and their secondary effects? • What will be non-transport impacts?

  7. Introduction (5) Project Phases and Workpackages: Research work • Phase 1: Baseline Research (WPs 1 and 2) • Phase 2: Scenario Definition (WP 3) • Phase 3: Modelling (WP 4) • Phase 4: Assessing Model Results (WP 5) • Phase 5: Final Reporting including Conclusions and recommendations (WP 6)

  8. Introduction (6) Co-ordination tasks • Clustering Meetings (interaction, dissemination) (WP8) • Soundboard Forums (research process, contents) (WP7) • Dissemination of results (conferences, brochures, website etc.) (WP9)

  9. Introduction (6) Outcomes Phase One: Baseline Research A review of the current state-of-the-art in transport and energy supply Development of a conceptual framework for the effects of the broader socio-economic and technological environment on the use of energy by transport

  10. Introduction (7) Outcomes Phase Two: Scenario Definition Scenarios were defined in two dimensions: • Energy Availability • including fuel price growth • Policy Dimension • what policies to adopt to tackle the challenges of the coming 25 years

  11. Introduction (8) Scenario definition • Policy dimension split into 4 policy packages: • No policy intervention (i.e. leave to free market) • Business as Usual • Technology Investment • Demand Regulation • Energy Availability follows 2 options: • Unrestricted Energy Supply • Energy Scarcity

  12. Scenario coherence Yellow: simulated by all models Blue: simulated by selected models

  13. Introduction (9) Phase three: Modelling • Aim: to use existing models to assess the impacts of the scenarios at two spatial levels: • 3 European models • 5 regional contexts • Existing models used because: • Results can be viewed in comparison with other modelling exercises • Allowed a wider range of contexts to be considered rather than spending resources on development of new models

  14. Introduction (10) • European models: • POLES • SASI • ASTRA • Regional models: • Edinburgh • Dortmund • Helsinki • Brussels • South Tyrol

  15. 2 Current state of affairs • Modelling work (WP4) finalised • Main integral result document (Deliverable 4.2) has been e-mailed to you • Evaluation and assessment of scenarios (WP 5) in progress • Final reporting to be started soon • Final conference (Gothenburg, 15 June) in preparation

  16. 3 The targets of today’s meeting In general… • feeding the STEPs research project with critical questions, remarks and comments This SBF-meeting in specific: • Reactions on model outcomes • Reactions on impact assessment phase (WP5)

  17. To be presented in detail / discussed… • Model outcomes: scenario impacts (WP 4) • Mr Angelo Martino / Davide Fiorello (TRT) • Evaluation and assessment (WP5) • Prof. Andrés Monzón (UPM-TRANSYT)

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