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André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for logistics Bulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012, Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University

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André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

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  1. Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for logisticsBulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012, Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

  2. Biomass & bioenergy flows according to IEA + other refs (2008) [IPCC- SRREN, 2011]

  3. Global wood pellet trade 2009 1 PJ = 60,000 tonnes (Source: Sikkema et al.,Bio FPR 2011 in IPCC, 2011)

  4. Global biofuels production and main international trade 2009 (Source: Lamers, RSER, 2011 in IPCC, 2011)

  5. European pellet markets NE Europe (coasters) N. America (ocean ships) Pellets in bagshouseholds 4 2 Major exporters 1 3 Bulk pellets households 3 Bulk medium DH&CHP Central Europe (trucks) 2 4 Bulk largescale power 1 [Sikkema et al, BioFPR, 2011]

  6. Global production and trade of the major biomass commodities (2008) (*) An estimated 75% of the traded bioethanol is used as transport fuel. [Heinimö & Junginger, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2009]

  7. Phases in bio-energy use and market development… Waste treatment and process residues; use on site, low costs. Local use of (more expensive) forest and agricultural residues; some infrastructure development. Regional biomass markets, larger scale utilisation, increasingly complex logistics; supportive policies needed. National markets with complex set of suppliers and buyers; often increased availability. Increasing scale, cross-border flows; role for cultivated biomass; bilateral activities. Global commodity market; pricing mechanisms; complex interlinkages with existing markets (food, forestry, feedstocks) [Faaij, Energy Policy, 2006]

  8. 2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels Past Literature Range ofTechnicalPotentials 0-1500 EJ 2050 GlobalEnergy AR4, 2007 Chapter 10Modelled Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration Targets Technical PotentialBased on 2008Model and LiteratureAssessment 2008 Global Energy Total Chapter 2 PossibleDeployment Levels Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y 2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiberas Energy Content 440-600 ppm <440 ppm Land Use 3 and 5million km TechnicalPotential Percentile 300 Maximum 300 265 2011 IPCCReview* 2 2050 Global Biomass AR4,2007 190 75th median 2008 Global Biomass Energy 150 100 118 25th 80 25 20 Minimum 2050 Projections [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  9. Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050). Thick black line = median,Coloured box =25th-75th percentile,Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  10. Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  11. IEA Biofuel Roadmap Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be vital to meet the roadmap targets Final energy (EJ)

  12. Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50 Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case Production costs shown as untaxed retail price [IEA Biofuels Roadmap]

  13. Biomass supply and demand in 2020 [Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]

  14. Simulated Biomass trade flows 2020 Low Import scenario High Import scenario Year: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 [Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]

  15. Driving forces, dimensions, scales… [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  16. Good news on criteria frameworks and frontline of debate: Debate has come to it’s senses a bit. Recognition that iLUC for biofuels alone is inconsistent: it is about management of land use. Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!. More attention for synergies (e.g.: Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010, GSB initiative, 2010)

  17. Overview and comparisonof initiatives to guarantee sustainability of bioenergy • Preliminary results: 67initiatives (regulation + systems) included • All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or • Various parts of the bioenergy value chain Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010

  18. overview and comparisonof sustainability certification schemes 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of biofuels From which 17 are developing principles IEA Task 40 Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010

  19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Operationalisation of sustainability criteria Criteria land availability deforestation competition with food production biodiversity soil erosion fresh water nutrient leaching pollution from chemicals employment child labour wages Impact yield quantity costs cost supply curve crop management system [Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]

  20. Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following Typical IPCC SRES. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

  21. A future vision on global bioenergy markets (2050…) 250 Mha = 100 EJ = 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie [GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]

  22. Final remarks • Bioenergy trade has rapidly become more important in total biomass supplies (for pellets in particular). • Plays major role in balancing out fluctuations in demand (policy!) & supply (variable at large). • Markets still immature; ethanol closest to commodity trading. • Rapid growth very likely to continue; in particular (‘advanced’’) pellets (torrefaction); cultivated wood is becoming more important. • More markets for lignocellulosic biomass emerge: 2nd gen biofuels, biochemicals… • Only a future when done sustainably… • …while at the same time RE and GHG mitigation targets cannot be met without large scale bioenergy deployment

  23. Thanks for your attention For more information, see: www.bioenergytrade.org • Detailed activities • Background information • Results • Events • Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year). And: - Sciencedirect/Scopus - http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report

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