FINANCING EDUCATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA National strategies and aid architecture

1. FINANCING EDUCATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA National strategies and aid architecture KEITH HINCHLIFFE

2. OUTLINE • Education financing – amounts, distributions and sources. • Recent trends, (mainly) governments and donors • Future financing scenarios responding to: • changes in social demand for education • global economic downturn and future economic growth • evolution of government development strategies • changes in donor priorities and behaviours • Education structures and patterns of financing vary considerably across countries.

3. RECENT TRENDS IN EDUCATION EXPENDITURE • NATIONAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE • Basic expenditure data limited for 1/3 SSA countries. But several positive messages. • High rates of economic growth post 2000 • Public EE as % GDP increased significantly since 2000. Highest developing regional share • EE as % of TGE – again highest regional share • Overall EE grew by 7.7% a year 1999–2007 • Expenditure share for primary fell from 49% to 45%: secondary share (28%) much lower than other regions • BUT - wide variations in all of these measures.

4. (ii) DEVELOPMENT AID • SSA largest regional recipient of education aid but share fallen • Constant share of education in total aid • 2007 direct aid to education: 30% primary, 11% secondary, 26% tertiary (32% level unspecified) • Trends – reduction in primary and increase in tertiary • Wide differences in allocations across countries – conflict • 3 donors provide 40% of all aid for education, 8 donors provide 80%. • Many small donors high priority education, and basic education.

5. (iii) HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE • Aggregate country/regional data very patchy • HE in public education: recent trends to reduce costs in primary and increase in post secondary • HE in private education: no regional estimates of enrolments in privately-funded schools

6. FUTURE EDUCATION EXPENDITURE (i) Enrolment growth 1999-2007 enrolments increased 51% primary, 73% secondary, 94% tertiary • 2007. NER GER Primary 73 99 Secondary 27 34 Tertiary 6 • Primary NER> 85 14 countries 60-85 14 countries < 60 6 countries No data 8 countries

7. Future • 2007, GIR 115% likely to fall • increase in primary survival and P/S transition rates, plus expanded primary intake will result in lower secondary pressures. • Lower and higher secondary differentiation • Variations across country groups.

8. (ii) Economic growth and global downturn • Limited impact so far. GDP growth of 7% a year 2006 and 2007 – followed by 5.5%, 2.0%, 4.8% and projected 6.8% in 2011(IMF) • Public expenditures reduced by less than economic growth decline • Remittances may have fallen, but unemployment increase in DCs less than anticipated • Fears of double dip with consequences for exporters (commodity and consumer)

9. CHALLENGESAND RESPONSES Governments • PRSP protection for basic • Growth protection post basic? • Budget strategy – overall or aggregation of parts? • Future pressures on education expenditure • teacher salaries • school fees and expansion of subsidies

10. Households • Primary – private schools and perceptions of quality • Secondary – quality and transition rates • Tertiary – transition rates, cost sharing

11. Donors – overall aid • Limited impact of recession so far • ‘Gleneagles’ not reached, but aid share trends positive • Use of aid – security etc.

12. Donors – aid for education • Distribution across levels • Modalities and sector/budget support • Conflict-affected countries • Multiple donor strategies • BRICS • EFA-FTI