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CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Planning WP1.2 and WP1.3 Claude Frankignoul UPMC

CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Planning WP1.2 and WP1.3 Claude Frankignoul UPMC. NACLIM CT1 meeting, Hamburg April 2013, UPMC (CF) planning. WP 1.2 Predictability of the atmosphere related to the ocean surface state (CF, UPMC) Task 1.2.1, D18 ( month 18)

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CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Planning WP1.2 and WP1.3 Claude Frankignoul UPMC

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  1. CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Planning WP1.2 and WP1.3 Claude Frankignoul UPMC

  2. NACLIM CT1 meeting, Hamburg April 2013, UPMC (CF) planning WP 1.2 Predictability of theatmosphererelatedtotheoceansurfacestate (CF, UPMC) Task 1.2.1, D18 (month 18) Estimation of thespace-time patterns of SST, sea ice, snowcover, and western boundarycurrentchangesthatmostimpacttheatmosphericcirculation and storm-trackactivity in the North Atlantic/European (NAE) region, basedonobservations and reanalyses In progress: Winter sea ice, North Atlantic SST, northernsnowcover, Kuroshiovariability; Oyashiovariability Planned: generalizedanalysiscombiningallboundaryforcings, including tropical ones Task 1.2.2, D48 (month 44) Mainmechanisms and sensitivities of observed SST and sea ice impactsinvestigated in experimentswithcoupledoratmosphericmodels. Establishtransientatmospheric response and the role of feedback In progress: response of LMDZ to AMOC SST and sea ice footprint In progress: response of Speedy to AMOC SST and sea ice footprint In progress (NSF grantto WHOI and CIRES / NOAA in Boulder): response of ¼° CAM5 toOyashioextensionshifts Furtherexperimentswill be designedafterTask 1.2.1 iscompleted Task 1.2.3, D37 (month 36) Comparison of theboundary-forcingsimpacton NAE betweenobservations and CMIP5 climatemodelsformodeltesting, downscaling and correctingclimatemodelpredictions. Assessment of CMIP5 multi-modelforecastskill in recapturingtheobservedboundary-forcingsimpact Planned: climatemodeltesting, followingmethodology of task 1.2.1, afteritscompletionothertaskswill be addressedlater

  3. NACLIM CT1 meeting, Hamburg April 2013, UPMC (CF) planning WP 1.3 Mechanisms of ocean surface state variability (MNH, UPMC) Task 1.3.1, D19 (month 18) Characterize most important SST and sea ice patterns of variability based on observations, reanalyses, and oceanic hindcasts In progress: as in Task 1.2.1 Task 1.3.2, D38 (month 36) Link surface states having a large climatic impact to ocean dynamics and key ocean quantities. Explore processes and the resulting predictability of the surface changes using observations, ocean hincasts and climate models Planned: establish the main mechanisms contributing to the AMO and PDO, and explore their interrelation Task1.3.3, D50 (month 44) Establish atmospheric patterns that drive key modes of surface variability in reanalyses and models, and the ocean-atmosphere feedback contributing to climate predictability In progress: establish patterns driving the AMOC and the AMO in IPSL-CM5, Speedy-OPA, and CCSM4, and estimate feedback contributing to climate predictability Planned: consider additional selected CMIP5 models; more detailed planning will be made later

  4. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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