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Optical components and networking

Optical components and networking. Michael S. Lebby GM & CTO. Translucent Inc. Earth Abundant Materials Technology. lebby@translucentinc.com. Capacity Issues & Challenges . Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in Network Development & Innovation

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Optical components and networking

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  1. Optical components and networking Michael S. Lebby GM & CTO TranslucentInc Earth Abundant Materials Technology. lebby@translucentinc.com

  2. Capacity Issues & Challenges • Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in Network Development & Innovation • Industry Structure has Changed Over Time • Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands • New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters • Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent • Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role • Continuing Investment is Critical Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics

  3. R&D gap

  4. How do we bridge this gap in the optoelectronics industry? Industrial based R&D Industry Academia Less companies are profitable Today Relative Investment ($) Expense Risk OE manufacturing nearly all off-shore in Asia GAP Not fashionable to have corporate R&D labs anymore Commercial Product Development & Manufacturing Research Commercial R&D 6 2 4 8 10 12 14 16 Start of concept Time (Yr) Sources: OIDA research Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today? 981015di004

  5. What has changed over the last decade? • Market share • 1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan • 2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating • Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China . . . • US companies moving operations off-shore • R&D following manufacturing • Corporate infrastructure • 1993 – Vertically integrated • 2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups • Technology platform • 1993 – Primarily III-V based • 2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth, dimensional tolerances and structures • Technology drivers • 1993 – Corporate central labs • 2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry • University research • National laboratories Sources: OIDA research Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USA

  6. Photonics markets...are already global

  7. Asia dominant in OE/photonics • Asia owned 81%of global 2009 OEmarket of $353B Sources: OIDA research, IOA North America & Europe minor players

  8. Market share in 2021 • USA • Down 11%  8% Sources: OIDA research, IOA Asia remains strong

  9. OE/photonics market by major location • By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4% • Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021) Sources: OIDA research, IOA Asian infrastructure strongest

  10. OE/photonics market by country • By 2021, OE/photonicswill be a $500Bbusiness with many countries contributing… • China grows quickly • US constant Sources: OIDA research, IOA Design + manf  off-shore

  11. USA decade trends remain flat • Optical fiber communications and components strong • Photonic lighting CAGR 2010-21 of 12.2% Sources: OIDA research, IOA USA  exporting photonics jobs?

  12. Networks must address scaling...

  13. Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle • Social lifestyle  personal lifestyle • Before • Computer centric • Experts level • Data exchange • Today • Network centric • Trained level • Archieval/access • Future • User centric • Pedestrian level • Knowledgeable Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT Lifestyle drives PAN  BAN

  14. Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters 500M 450M Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 When will the trend slow down?

  15. from Exa to Zetta-bytes… Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012 Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism Driven by consumer internet…

  16. The challenge of network scaling in the core

  17. The challenges… • Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps • Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020 • Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity growth • System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years • System capacity will become the most important factor • Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the need • Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics) simultaneously • Market for core based systems will be robust Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Driven by consumer internet…

  18. Scaling the core of the network… • We know (or severely suspect) • Global system capacity will be important in the next decade • And we are not keeping up here in the US… • Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth • Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users) • New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed • We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams) will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use… • $/bit metrics are here to stay… Sources: OIDA research Limit how we utilize the internet…

  19. System capacity and network traffic (Including voice) • 2010-2030 forecast trends Gap??? Will traffic >> capacity??? 1Pbps 10Tbps 1Tbps Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?

  20. System capacity and network traffic (Including voice) • 2010-2030 forecast trends Will the price stop us from down loading data? 1Pbps 10Tbps 1Tbps Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…

  21. System evolution… Asia strong in network design… 1990s • 2.5-10 Gbps channel rate • 8,16, 40 Channels • 20-160 Gbps Capacity • SE = .025-.05 History 2000 • 10 Gbps channel rate • 100 Channels • 1 Tbps Capacity • SE = 0.2 History 2010 • 100 Gbps channel rate • 100 Channels • 10 Tbps Capacity • SE = 2.0 Near Future 2015 • 1 Tbps ?? channel rate • 100 Channels • 50 Tbps Capacity ?? • SE = 20 ?? R&D Needed 2020 • 4 Tbps ?? channel rate • 200 Channels • 500 Tbps ?? Capacity • SE >50 ?? R&D Critically Needed SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing • Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10… Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology

  22. Networks must address energy...

  23. Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%) • IP over DWDM transport: • Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment • Maximize architecture and equipment scalability Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism Challenge: contain energy footprint

  24. Cost for power and cooling in data centers • Year 2000 • Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready • Year 2006 • Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor • Year 2010 • Three cooling challenges • System, rack, data center • Year 2021 • Green designs imperative… Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC Power and cooling spending out of control…

  25. Broadband technology • Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology Source: OECD What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

  26. Architecture evolution – FTTH access Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG Power consumption expected to rise fast…

  27. Photonics will become integrated...

  28. Moore’s Law  photonics to follow? Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel CMOS very successful  can we learn?

  29. PIC trends over 3 decades InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS) III-V on silicon (3-5OS) Nanophotonic Integration Technology Digital Analog Generic Integration Technology Source: MeintSmit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008 Photonics is expected to become digital…

  30. Integrated photonics over 4 decades… • Courtesy of • R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007) • S.E. Miller, 1969 • I. Hayashi, 1970 • J. Shibata, 1984 • O. Wada, 1986 • T. Koch, 1991 • M. Zirngibl, 1995 • C. Steenbergen, 1996 • C. Herben, 1999 • L. Coldren, 2002 • Y. Yoshikuni, 2002 • Y. Suzaki, 2002 • M. Masanovic, 2003 • ASIP/III-V, 2004 • R. Nagarajan, 2005 • R. Nagarajan, 2006 • M. Kato, 2007 • R. Nagarajan, 2007 • Not shown (EDG-WDM): • V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002; • V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003; • A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005; • V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005 1000 100 10 1 Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin Poised for big impact in fiber comms

  31. New optical technologies for the edge • Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force • Applications, architectures, services, content distribution • Photonic Integrated Circuits • Lower costs • Use less space • Consume less power • Better performance • FTTH Delivers • Very high bandwidth • Network efficiencies • Future proof technology Source: OneChip Photonics PICs are the economical solution…

  32. Photonic integrated circuits save power • Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing • Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability • Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W Sources: Lightwire, IBM Tighter integration leads to lower power

  33. What do we need to do technically? • Even more sophisticated modulation formats • Current systems at 40 Gbpsuse DPSK • Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent detection • Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations? • More optical bandwidth • Beyond C+L band • Higher power fibers • Photonic integrated circuits • Game-changer for the edge (FTTH) • New laser diode/modulator schemes  maybe non semiconductor ???? If we don’t act  this will take place in Asia… US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D

  34. Data-centers need to scale also...

  35. BroadbandAccess Networks EnterpriseNetworks ResearchNetworks ContentNetworks Research, Education and Government Facilities Data Centers and Enterprise The Ethernet ecosystem evolves Content Providers Broadband Access Internet BackboneNetworks Internet BackboneNetworks Internet eXchange and Interconnection Points Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks Datacenters  high speed intersections

  36. Why higher speed Ethernet? Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere Bandwidth explosion everywhere Increased # of users Increased access rates and methods Increased services + + = As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT, Cox, EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ... EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi, 3G/4G… YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd life, Gaming… Source: IEEE 802.3 HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007. Higher demands on the network

  37. Demand outpacing equipment development Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 Data-centers are ‘under pressure’

  38. Future data-center evolution… Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 400G+ solutions are needed Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09

  39. Calibration with broadband leader (Japan)

  40. Broadband service subscriber’s total traffic amount (Estimate) Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1 Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1 *1 domestic major Internet eXchanges: NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in Japan (Oct 2009) 104 103 30% increase per year 102 Internet Traffic （Gbps） 10 1 10-1 1997 1999 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Internet traffic in Japan  Tbps 40

  41. Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009) 35 Population : 128 million in Japan (2005)Households : 49 million 30 25 total FTTH DSL 20 CATV Targetof NTT@2010 Number of Subscribers (million) 15 10 5 0 Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Fiber based broadband  obvious

  42. Japan’s R&D example 10Tbps • Development of next-generation high-efficiency network device technology • The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy conservation. • Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over 10Tbps • Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of networks using such technology • As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA in Washington DC), October 2009 Sources: OIDA research, IOA Japan aggressive on R&D…

  43. END

  44. Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEng General Manager & Chief Technology Officer lebby@translucentinc.com Translucent 22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams Earth Abundant Materials Technology Translucent Inc 952 Commercial St Palo Alto, CA94303 Thank you for listening

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