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Grains Outlook for 2011

Grains Outlook for 2011. Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Ames, Iowa Nov. 9, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Source: USDA-NASS. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range.

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Grains Outlook for 2011

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  1. Grains Outlook for 2011 Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Ames, Iowa Nov. 9, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range Translates to a yield around 160 bu. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  6. Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Within a bushel of each other Source: USDA-NASS

  8. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  9. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  10. La Niña Winter Source: NOAA

  11. Clearing Old Stocks The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops. Source: USDA

  12. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  13. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  14. Historical Export Levels Week 9 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  19. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, futures are in $5.40 range for 2010 and 2011 corn Even with higher fertilizer costs, corn’s profitable

  20. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures are nearly $12 for 2010 and 2011 beans

  21. This Year Soy $12.10 Corn $5.43

  22. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45 Futures (as of 11/8/2010): Corn $5.46, Soy $11.80 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 11/8/2010): Corn $5.34, Soy $11.71

  23. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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