Biobased Products Value Chain - Feedstocks, Products & Markets -

1. Biobased Products Value Chain-Feedstocks, Products & Markets - RRM-Meeting Brussels, 2nd April 2014 Rainer Busch, T+I Consulting Dietrich Wittmeyer, ERRMA

2. Bio-basedproducts‘ valuechains

3. Biobased Industries Consortium: Five Value Chains • Value Chain1: From lignocellulosic feedstock to advanced biofuels, bio-based chemicals and biomaterials: realising the feedstock and technology base for the next generation of fuels, chemicals and materials • Value Chain2: The next generation forest-based value chains: utilisation of the full potential of forestry biomass by improved mobilisation and realisation of new added value products and markets • Value Chain3: The next generation agro-based value chains: realising the highest sustainability and added value by improved agricultural production, and new added value products and markets • Value Chain4: Emergence of new value chains from (organic) waste: from waste problems to economic opportunities by realising sustainable technologies to convert waste into valuable products • Value Chain5: The integrated energy, pulp and chemicals biorefineries: realising sustainable bio-energy production, by backwards integration with biorefinery operations isolating higher added value components

4. BiobasedSolvents - Update • 2013 bio-basedsolventsmarket • Total European solventsmarketisestimatedwith 5 milliontonnesyearly. • Different sources (Dechema, Fraunhofer Institute, ESIG) estimatetoday’s bio-basedsolventsvolumewith 50 to 100 KT (1 to 2%) • JRC Report 2013 (EUR 25743 EN) gives a market of 630 KT bio-basedsolvents. • Differenceisidentifiedtoberelatedtotheethanolsupplychain. • An European market of 630 KT bio-basedsolventscanbeconfirmedconsidering bio-ethanol useddirectlyas a solvent oras a feedstock for othersolvents.

5. BiobasedSolvents - Update • Solventsandthe Ethanol case (source NNFCC andindustry): • Ethanol global production 2008: 61 milliontonnes (> 90% bio-based) • Most applicationsin fuelsandfood & beverages • Ca. 6 milliontonnes for theindustry • Part of ethanolisuseddirectlyas a solvent, partblendedwithothersolvents (e.g. ETOH/ETAC blend for inks), partused for downstreamproducts (solventslike ETAC or non-solventslikeethylene, aceticacid…) • Applicationsmayswitch back andforwardconsideringmarketconditions • The solventsapplication of ETOH, being bio-basedor not, isverylowcomparedwithbiofuel but aswellindustrialapplicationsconsidering for examplethechainethanol ethylenepolyethylene • Bio-ethanol frombiomassis a maturemarketbeinghighlyimpactedbypoliciesandincentives.

6. BiobasedSolvents - Update • Prediction (whatcanwereasonablysaytoday) • Main solventsapplicationareethanolanddownstreamproductsorblends • Development of ethanol will remainhighlyaffectedby regional andlocalpolicies • Other bio-basedsolvents (alcohols, acetates) aremainlyoxygenatedsolventsandhaveverylowvolumesrepresentingnomorethan 1% of themarket • Theirdevelopment will depend on competitiveproductionconditions • Today, itis not possible for thesolventsindustrytogiveseriousfactbasedprediction of bio-basedsolventsmarket.

7. BiobasedSolvents - Update • Some additional considerations in the bio-basedsolventscontext • Feedstockavailabilityatcompetitiveconditions • Competitiveproductionprocess • Pull fromdownstreamusers • Long termpredictability of legal andincentivesconditions • Standardization will givetheframe for companiesanddownstreamuserstodeveloptheirown bio-basedstrategies

8. Surfactants - Update

9. Surfactants - Update

10. Agricultural Products & Markets- Update Source: Prospects for AgriculturalMarketsand Income in the EU 2013-2023, European Commission

11. Agricultural Products & Markets- Update Table 6.10 EU ricemarketbalance, 2010-23 (milliontonnesmilledequivalent) Table 6.11 EU oilseed* (grainsandbeans) marketbalance, 2010-23 (milliontonnes) Table 6.13 EU oilseedoil* marketbalance, 2010-23 (milliontonnes) Table 6.14 EU vegetableoil* marketbalance, 2010-23 (milliontonnes Table 6.15 EU sugarmarketbalance, 2010-23 (milliontonneswhitesugarequivalent) Table 6.17 EU biofuelsmarketbalance, 2010-23 (milliontonnesoilequivalent)

12. Starch: European Starch Production & Trade EU-27 Source: nova-institute

19. Table 1 SugarTable 2 StarchTable 3 Cellulosic MaterialsTable 4, 5, 6 Plant OilsTable 7 Animal FatsTable 8 Biobased Platform Chemicals and selected biobased products

20. OILSEEDS & VEGETABLEoils

21. Feedstock Raw Materials Inter- mediates (Platform) Chemicals Materials, Products Markets • Oilseeds • Animals • Oils • Fats • Fattyacids • Fattyalcohols • Glycerine • Surfactants • Paints & Inks • Lubricants • Detergents

22. Oilseeds: European Production & Trade EU-27 Source: Fediol

23. Plant Oils: European Production & Trade EU-27 Source: Fediol

24. Plant Oils: European Consumption per Sector EU-27 Source: Fediol

25. Plant Oils: Consumption in other industrial application EU-27

26. Also available: • Global production of Palm & Palm Kernel oil • Global production of Soybeanoil • Global production of Rapeseedoil • Global production of sunfloweroil Source: FAO

27. Plant Oil Derivatives: European Production EU-27 Source: EUROSTAT

28. Plant Oil Derivatives: European Trade EU-27 Source: EUROSTAT

29. Plant Oil Derivatives: European Consumption EU-27

30. Plant Oil Derivatives: Consumption per Sector EU-27

31. Sugar

32. Sugar: European Sugar Crops Production EU-27 Source: FAOSTAT

33. Sugar: European Sugar Crops Trade EU-27

34. Sugar: European Sugar Production EU-27 Source: CEFS, FAOSTAT, EU Commssion (DG Agri)

35. Sugar: European Sugar Trade EU-27

36. Sugar: European Sugar Consumption per Sector EU-27

37. Starch

38. Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: AAF Source: EUROSTAT

39. Starch: European Starch Production & Trade EU-27 Source: nova-institute

40. Starch: European Starch Consumption per Sector EU-27

41. Cellulose

42. Starch: European Lignocellulose Feedstock Consumption EU-27 Source: CEPI

43. Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: CEPI

44. Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: CEPI

45. PRODUCTS & Markets

46. Lubricants Source: FUCHS AG

47. Platform Chemicals Data provided by BASF SA

48. Composites

49. Plastics

50. Solvents • ConsolidateddatafromESIG and IAR will beprovided • byESIG in December 2013