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Market Operations Presentation Board of Director’s Meeting April 15, 2003

This presentation discusses various topics including the Texas SET v1.5 conversion, MIMO stacking problem schedule, and the 2002 UFE report. It also provides recommendations for improving UFE analysis and load data accuracy.

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Market Operations Presentation Board of Director’s Meeting April 15, 2003

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  1. Market Operations Presentation Board of Director’s Meeting April 15, 2003

  2. Agenda • Texas SET v1.5 • MIMO – Stacking Problem Schedule • 2002 UFE Report

  3. Texas SET v1.5 Conversion April 11-13 Were We Successful?

  4. Texas SET v1.5 Conversion April 11-13 We Were Successful!

  5. MIMO - Stacking Problem Schedule • Considered a number of solutions • including an ERCOT only technology/database solution • Converged on draft solution • requiring work at all companies – ERCOT, TDSPs and REPs • March 27 Published Proposed Solution Draft • April 17 End of Three Week Comment Period • May 7 Seminar to Rollout Final Draft Solution • May 15 RMS to Vote • May 20-21 Task Force to Formulate PRR(s) For RMS and TAC Approval

  6. 2002 UFE Report • ERCOT Protocol Requirement • 11.5 Unaccounted For Energy (UFE) Analysis • 11.5.1 Overview • ERCOT will establish a UFE Analysis Team chaired by ERCOT and consisting of Market Participants and ERCOT personnel who report to the Technical Advisory Committee: • The UFE Analysis Team will: • Analyze UFE data from January 01, 2002 to December 31, 2002 • Post findings to the MIS on a monthly basis • Provide a recommendation by April 2003 to the ERCOT Board

  7. UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows: UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses) Sources of UFE include: ■ Generation Measurement Errors ■ Load – Missing/Erroneous Usage Data – Model Error ■ Losses – Model Error Determining Factors • Negative UFE generally indicates load/loss overestimated

  8. Statistical Results • UFE has a significant negative bias. • Mean and Median UFE values are similar … the distributions are not skewed. • UFE gets closer to 0 with each settlement run. • Thus, usage data loading improves UFE.

  9. Generation Differences BetweenInitial & Final Settlement • Only 8.5% of the intervals had differences greater than 100MW between initial & final settlement. • Differences greater than 300 MW occurred for only 3.9% of the intervals.

  10. 2002 Median UFE by Settlement Run • The median UFE value improves with each settlement run across all days of the week. For all runs there is evidence of a cyclical component of UFE across day-types. • UFE is generally better during the middle of the day than during morning and evening hours.

  11. 2003 Median UFE by Settlement Run • UFE improves slightly between Initial and Final Settlement.

  12. Recommendations • Generation Measurement Errors are not a significant contributor to UFE – no further analysis needed on Generation • Improve usage data loading accuracy/timeliness (SCR 727) • Update load research samples (PUCT Project 25516 & ERCOT PR-30014) • Load Profiling Models • Evaluate lagged-dynamic samples • Evaluate algorithms for missing IDR data estimation (ERCOT PR-30130) • Evaluate TDSP loss factors with substation IDR data (ERCOT PR-30022) • Evaluate the need for additional substation metering • Compare data aggregated to substation level with substation metering • Explore alternative methods for UFE allocation (ERCOT PR-30022) • UFE Zones • By Substation • Weather • Re-convene UFE Group

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