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International ICT and Broadband Development

International ICT and Broadband Development. Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy FCC Workshop August 18, 2009. Agenda: Results from Three Studies. Global Information Technology Report (2008) Global Information Technology Report (2009) Broadband Quality Score (2008).

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International ICT and Broadband Development

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  1. International ICT and Broadband Development Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy FCC Workshop August 18, 2009

  2. Agenda: Results from Three Studies • Global Information Technology Report (2008) • Global Information Technology Report (2009) • Broadband Quality Score (2008)

  3. 2008 Global Information Technology ReportINSEAD and World Economic Forum CHAPTER 1.2 The Emerging Nexus: Now is the Time to Plot a Balanced Course that Delivers on the Promise of ICT and Networks ROBERT PEPPER, Cisco Systems, Inc. ENRIQUE J. RUEDA-SABATER, Cisco Systems, Inc. EWAN MORRISON, Cisco Systems, Inc.

  4. Ecosystem Infrastructure ICT Policy-Regulation Market and Competition BusinessClimate Skillsfor ICT DomesticNetworks International Access • Laws relating to ICT (WEF) • Burden of government regulation (WEF) • Quality of Competition in the ISP sector (WEF) • Intensity of local competition (WEF) • Capacity of innovation (WEF) • Procedures to start a business (WEF from WB) • Procedures to enforce a contract (WEF from WB) • Efficiency of legal framework (WEF) • Availabilityof scientists and engineers (WEF) • Availability of specialized training services (WEF) • Quality of math and science education (WEF) • Personal computers (WEF from ITU) • Internet hosts (WEF from ITU) • Mobile telephones (WEF from ITU) • Telephone lines (WEF from ITU) • Electricity production (WEF from WB) • Internet bandwidth (WEF from ITU) Mapping ICT Ecosystem and Infrastructure

  5. Mapping ICT Ecosystem and Infrastructure Implications for Broadband Best Practice Ecosystem High Broadband Penetration Low Connectivity Cost Low Broadband Penetration High Connectivity Cost Poor Poor Best Practice Infrastructure

  6. ICT Development Map: U.S. Best Practice United States ICT Ecosystem Poor Best Practice Poor ICT Infrastructure

  7. ICT Map: U.S. + Best Practice Countries Singapore Best Practice Hong Kong Finland Sweden Austria Switzerland Iceland Denmark Estonia Norway United States Japan Netherlands Canada Germany Australia U.K. France Luxembourg. Belgium Ireland ICT Ecosystem Poor Best Practice Poor ICT Infrastructure

  8. ICT Map: U.S. + Best Practice Countries Best Practice United States Japan Canada Germany Australia U.K. France ICT Ecosystem Poor Best Practice Poor ICT Infrastructure

  9. ICT Map: U.S. + Other G8 Countries Best Practice United States Japan Canada Germany U.K. France ICT Ecosystem Italy Russia Poor Best Practice Poor ICT Infrastructure

  10. ICT Map: U.S. + Other G20 Countries Best Practice United States Japan Canada Germany Australia U.K. South Korea France South Africa ICT Ecosystem Saudi Arabia China Turkey Indonesia Italy Russia Mexico Brazil Argentina Poor Best Practice Poor ICT Infrastructure

  11. 2009 Global Information Technology ReportINSEAD and World Economic Forum CHAPTER 1.3 From Mobility to Ubiquity: Ensuring the Power and Promise of Internet Connectivity… for Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime ROBERT PEPPER, Cisco Systems, Inc. ENRIQUE J. RUEDA-SABATER, Cisco Systems, Inc. BRIAN C. BOEGGEMAN, Cisco Systems, Inc. JOHN GARRITY, Cisco Systems, Inc. http://www.insead.edu/v1/gitr/wef/main/home.cfm

  12. Internet Stages Worldwide Intensive Over half of households and virtually all business have broadband connections; most people use Internet Extensive Close to half of the people are already using the Internet but only about one-third of households, on average, have their own connections Familiarization Less than one-quarter of households have their own Internet connections but Internet use is growing and already has been experienced by about one-third of people; virtually all urban businesses are connected Early Days Internet users still represent less than one-sixth of the population although usage is growing fast Proto-Internet Low internet use (less than one in twenty people had experienced it by 2007); low levels of urbanization (the bulk of the population is still rural) preventing Internet usage from growing rapidly.

  13. Includes USA Internet Stages Worldwide Intensive (23 countries) Extensive (18 countries) Familiarization (39 countries) Early Days (32 countries) Proto-Internet (45 countries)

  14. Broadband Quality Score A global study of broadband quality September 2008 Sponsored by

  15. Dimensions of Broadband • Bandwidth—”speed” • Latency • Jitter • Symmetry • Bursting • Other…

  16. Matching Broadband to ApplicationsNot All Bits Are Created Equal Telepresence High Voice Gaming (HD) Gaming (LD) Sensitive to Latency Streaming Audio Streaming Video HD-IPTV Download Video Email Low High Low Bandwidth

  17. Changing Quality Requirements Tomorrow Today TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES • Visual networking • HD video streaming • Consumer telepresence • Large file sharing • HD IPTV • Social networking • LD video streaming • Basic video chatting • Small file sharing • SD IPTV • Requirements • Download 11.25Mbps • Upload 5Mbps • Latency 60ms Broadband Quality Requirements • Download 3.75 Mbps • Upload 1 Mbps • Latency 95ms 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: California Broadband Task Force, Jan 2008; Expert interviews; Oxford Team analysis, Aug 2008

  18. Main Broadband Quality Factors KEY FACTORS IN DETERMINING BROADBAND EXPERIENCE Source: Expert interviews; Oxford Team analysis, Aug 2008

  19. Broadband Quality Score (BQS) BQS is calculated based on normalized values of: Download and Upload throughput, and Latency About 8million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008 Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow’s (3 to 5 years) applications. BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency BQS CALCULATION BQS threshold: 32 • Download 3.75 Mbps • Upload 1 Mbps • Latency 95ms • BQS threshold:75 • Download 11.25Mbps • Upload 5Mbps • Latency 60ms Source: University of Oviedo; Delphi interviews; Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008

  20. Country Broadband Quality Scores Tomorrow’s applications BQS threshold: 75 Today’s applications BQS threshold: 32 BROADBAND QUALITY SCORE BY COUNTRY Source: Speed Test database, Expert Interviews, BQS Team Analysis, Aug 2008

  21. Broadband Adoption (OECD)

  22. Advertised Average Download Speed (OECD) Source: OECD

  23. Country Broadband Quality Scores BROADBAND QUALITY SCORE BY COUNTRY Source: Speed Test database, Expert Interviews, BQS Team Analysis, Aug 2008

  24. Broadband Penetration and Quality 100 100 80 80 60 60 BQS BQS 40 40 20 20 0 0 0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100% Penetration (% Households) Penetration (% Households) BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX QUALITY LEADERS PENETRATION LEADERS Source: Cisco IBSG, Aug 2008

  25. 100 80 60 BQS 40 20 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Penetration (% Households) Broadband Penetration and Quality BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX (TOP-20) • Japan • South Korea • Netherlands • Denmark • Switzerland • Sweden • Norway • Australia • Iceland • Luxembourg • Canada • Finland • France • US • United Kingdom • Ireland • Belgium • Estonia • Germany • Slovenia Source: Speed Test database; Point Topic, BQS Team Analysis, Cisco IBSG, Aug 2008

  26. Lessons Learned • ICT Ecosystem is more than broadband • Multi-staged path to ubiquity (and benefits) • Availability/reach • Adoption • Utilization • Broadband is multi-dimensional and non-static—quality matters

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