Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations

1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Concentrations T.J. Blasing … … with a lot of help from many data contributors. Presented to the CDIAC User Working Group September 27, 2010

2. Part 1: Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Evolving user data base CO2, CH4, Isotopes, Other Gases, Aerosols, Historical Records Suggestions Part 2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2, CH4, Isotopes, Historical Records, Applications

3. THEN (Early Years of CDIAC) • Vaguely defined user base, mostly researchers • We were “only game in town” for many data storage/retrieval applications and documentation. • Less spatial/temporal coverage and less gases to worry about NOW: • More sophisticated researcher user base • More user base in the general public • Data providers have sophisticated data storage/retrieval applications and documentation. • Extended spatial/temporal coverage and more gases to worry about RESULT IS THAT DATA WILL BE SUMMARIZED DIFFERENTLY. Evolving user base CO2 CH4 Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical Records Suggestions

4. More sophisticated researcher user base, More user base in the general public Different kinds of value-added products • Shorter, more general summaries Data storage, retrieval, and documentation Less Presentation on CDIAC Site; More Linking • More current • More complete coverage of variables (e.g., isotopes) • Archiving Evolving user base CO2 CH4 Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical Records Suggestions

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8. ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/ch4/flask/month/ Evolving user baseCO2 CH4 Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical Records Suggestions

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10. Problems with Isotope Data: • Limited Temporal Coverage (Thru 2007) • Error terms Evolving user baseCO2 CH4Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical Records Suggestions

11. What’s new July 2010 AGAGE data on ozone depleting substances and trace greenhouse gases have been updated through September 2009. Methyl bromide (CH3Br) files have been brought up to date, and one new hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) species and three perfluorocarbons (PFCs) have been added. The added species are: HFC-23 (Trifluoromethane) (CHF3) is a radiatively active (greenhouse) gas with a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of 14,800. It is a byproduct of the manufacture of HFC-22 which is used as a refrigerant, foam blowing agent, and as a chemical feedstock. HFC-22 is an ozone depleting species and is therefore being phased out of production. PFC-14 (tetrafluoromethane) (CF4) is a greenhouse gas with an atmospheric lifetime of 50,000 years and a 100 year GWP of 7,390. PFC-116 Hexafluoroethane (C2F6) is a greenhouse gas with an atmospheric lifetime of 10,000 years and a 100 year GWP of 12,200. PFC-118 (perfluoropropane) (C3F8). is a greenhouse gas with an atmospheric lifetime of 2,600 years and a 100year GWP of 8830. Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are used mainly in the electronics sector in semiconductor manufacture, as they can be used for selective etching of silicon compounds. They are used primarily as refrigerants [mainly in blends with HFCs and hydrochlorofluorcarbons (HCFCs)]. They are also used as environmental tracer gases, in some fire extinguishing systems, and in certain cosmetics and medical applications. CFC-11 and CFC-113 continue to decline at all stations, and CFC 12 continues to decline after peaking out in the early years of this decade. Methane concentrations, which had leveled off in the early years of this decade, appear to Be increasing again, at least for the last 2 years. Evolving user baseCO2 CH4Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical Records Suggestions

12. The ALE/GAGE/AGAGE Network (updated August 2010) Evolving user baseCO2 CH4Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical Records Suggestions

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17. Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations T.J. Blasing DOI: 10.3334/CDIAC/atg.032 Updated September 2010 Gases typically measured in parts per million (ppm), parts per billion (ppb) or parts per trillion (ppt) by volume are presented separately to facilitate comparison of numbers. Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and atmospheric lifetimes are from the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007, Table 2.14), except for the atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO2) which is explained in footnote 4. Additional material on greenhouse gases can be found in CDIAC's Reference Tools. To find out how CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, and halons are named, see Name that compound: The numbers game for CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, and Halons. Sources of the current atmospheric concentrations are given in the footnotes. The concentrations given are mostly derived from data available via the CDIAC Web pages; many corresponding links are given in the footnotes below. These data are contributed to CDIAC by various investigators, and represent considerable effort on their part. We ask as a basic professional courtesy that you acknowledge the primary sources when you refer to data from any of these sites. Guidelines for proper acknowledgment are found at each link, except for the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE database where acknowledgment guidelines are given in the "readme" files; links to those "readme" files are given in footnote 9, below. Evolving user baseCO2 CH4Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical RecordsSuggestions

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19. Recent CO2 concentration (386.3 ppm) is the 2009 average taken from globally averaged marine surface data given by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, web site: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html#global. Please read the material on that web page and reference Dr. Pieter Tans when citing this average • (Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends). The 2009 average derived from in-situ data at the four "baseline" stations (Point Barrow, Alaska, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, American Samoa, and the South Pole) is also 386.3 rounded to the first decimal digit. The oft-cited Mauna Loa average for 2009 is 387.4, which is a good approximation although 1.1 ppm higher than the spatial averages given above. Refer to http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends for records back to the late 1950s. Evolving user baseCO2 CH4Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical RecordsSuggestions

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22. Average annual increment (ppmv) for Baseline Stations Decade 1981-19901991-20002001 ------- Point Barrow 1.60 1.52 1.92 Mauna Loa 1.55 1.53 1.99 American Samoa 1.47 1.56 1.91 South Pole 1.46 1.53 1.91 Evolving user baseCO2 CH4Isotopes Other Gases Aerosols Historical RecordsSuggestions

23. Suggestions welcome ! (Please prioritize) Cleaning up web site; less old data files, more links to current data sites Other gases, (Methane, Halocarbons) Isotopes Aerosols Historical databases Oxygen, O2/N2 ratios Display of HIPPO data Pointer to Vulcan, Subnational section with links to EPA annual state data

24. Part 1: Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Evolving user data base CO2, CH4, Isotopes, Other Gases, Aerosols, Historical Records Suggestions Part 2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2, CH4, Isotopes, Historical Records, Applications

25. Emissions CO2CH4 Isotopes Historical records Applications

26. CDIAC provided monthly and annual long-term (1751-2006), gridded (1 x 1) fossil-fuel CO2 emission estimates to the AR5 modeling teams worldwide. Emissions CO2 CH4IsotopesHistorical records Applications

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29. Regional Shift in Emissions Share 57% Developed Countries Annex B 62% 43% Developing Countries Non Annex B Annual Emissions (billion tons of carbon) 38% FCCC Kyoto Protocol Adopted Kyoto Protocol Enters into Force Emissions CO2 CH4 Isotopes Historical records Applications

30. 18 -wheelers Residential Sector production Commercial Sector Industrial Sector Emissions CO2 CH4 Isotopes Historical records Applications

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36. 4.9 for Vancouver Average for Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City 19.0 8.1 21.2 12.8 20.7 19.6 7.6 15.2 16.1 10.8 16.4 18.7 16.1 11.2 13.9 17.7 13.6 13.8 13.5 9.2 14.4 12.5 MD 11.6 15.3 11.4 10.5 10.9 13.2 14.1 11.6 7.3 9.4 10.2 11.8 8.4 8.5 10.7 8.6 8.2 8.1 8.7 9.1 < 10 8.2 6.6 10-15 15-20 > 20 November – January Temperature Differences http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climate_normals/stnselect_e.html Canadian data from:

39. in. This graphic adapted from: http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/mexico/Mexico%20City.html For another record that some people prefer: http://weather.uk.msn.com/monthly_averages.aspx?wealocations=wc:MXDF0132