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1. A BOTTOM UP RESPONSE TO A TOP DOWN CRISIS: A Pan European Perspective

CSPP. www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp. 1. A BOTTOM UP RESPONSE TO A TOP DOWN CRISIS: A Pan European Perspective PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Centre for the Study of Public Policy University of Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp The International Crisis and Post-Communist States University of Glasgow

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1. A BOTTOM UP RESPONSE TO A TOP DOWN CRISIS: A Pan European Perspective

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  1. CSPP www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp 1. A BOTTOM UP RESPONSE TO A TOP DOWN CRISIS: A Pan European Perspective PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Centre for the Study of Public Policy University of Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp The International Crisis and Post-Communist States University of Glasgow 13-14 May 2010 RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10

  2. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 2. WHERE IS THE CRISIS? Top down macro-economic or bottom-up household? Vulnerable countries An international stimulus: all countries equally affected Macro-economic: a crisis of banks, ministries of finance But vulnerability differs: CEE 10/ Northern 11/Med 6 Vulnerable people Micro-level: poor people, indebted people. All countries have some vulnerable and some secure people but proportions differ.

  3. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 3. VULNERABILITY DIFFERS WITH ECONOMIC STATUS Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, 27 EU countries, fieldwork Aug-Sept 2009, unweighted N=26,719

  4. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 4. VULNERABILITY DIFFERS BETWEEN COUNTRIES Sources: Access to credit: Eurobarometer 72.1, D46, 27 EU countries, fieldwork August-September 2009, unweighted N=27,719. Official economic statistics: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/ search_database (accessed 1 April 2010).GDP: nominal Gross Domestic Product per capita in Euro per inhabitant; contraction: growth rate of real GDP per capita; inflation: annual average inflation rate. Averages for groups of countries weight each country equally.

  5. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 5. VULNERABLE COUNTRIES AND VULNERABLE PEOPLE HYPOTHESES H 1. If people are low in socio-economic resources, they are worse off. H 2. If people are vulnerable, they are worse off. H 3. If people live in poor countries, they are worse off. H 4. If people live in vulnerable countries, they are worse off.

  6. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 6. THE WOUNDED AND THE COPING The Dependent Variable Q 37. Which of the following best describes how your household is keeping up with all its bills and credit commitments at the moment? North Med. CEE Difference North-CEE (% respondents) No difficulty 58 25 33 25 Okay but problems 30 38 38 -8 from time to time Keeping up a 9 30 21 -12 constant struggle Keeping up (97) (93) (92) (5) Falling behind with 2 5 6 -4 some bills Real problems, be- 1 2 3 -2 hind with many bills Falling behind (3) (7) (9) (-6) Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, 27 EU countries, fieldwork August-September 2009, unweighted N=26,719. Don’t knows excluded.

  7. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 • THE EFFECT OF LOW RESOURCES, VULNERABILITY Dependent variable: Q # Difficulty paying bills R2=27.4% (*** significant at .001, ** .01, * .05 level) Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, 27 EU countries, fieldwork August-September 2009, unweighted N=26,719.

  8. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 8. DIFFICULTIES IN CONTEXT Hierarchical Linear Model: pseudo R2=29.7% Coeff. Error T-ratio #GDP change 2008/9 0.01 0.02 0.82 # see semail % with mortgages -1.11 0.28 -4.00*** Social status -0.22 0.01 -19.08*** Education -0.06 0.01 -4.87*** Age -0.002 0.00 -3.80*** Male -0.06 0.01 -4.17*** Urbanization 0.01 0.01 1.32 Unemployed 0.36 0.03 12.17*** Pensioner -0.15 0.02 -7.55*** Credit card access -0.17 0.01 -13.63*** (*** significant at .001, ** .01, * .05 level) Sources: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q#fieldwork August-September 2009, 27 EU countries, unweighted N=26,719. #amend/ delete as appropriate. GDP change 2008/9: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/ page/portal/statistics/ search_database, (accessed 1 April 2010)

  9. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 9. IS RUSSIA DIFFERENT COMPARED TO CEE COUNTRIES? CEE Russia mean Keeping up difficult 9% 25% GDP change 2008/9 -8.1% -7.9% Has mortgage 13% 1% Can get credit card, bank 35% 40% loan Sources: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, fieldwork August-September 2009, 10 CEE countries, unweighted N=10,144; New Russia Barometer XVIII, A6, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601.GDP change 2008/9: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/ portal/page/portal/statistics/ search_database (accessed 1 April 2010); for Russia: World Bank, Russian Economic Report No. 21 (March 2010), p.5.

  10. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 10. COMPARING INFLUENCES ON HOUSEHOLD DIFFICULTIES Ordinary least squares regressions (*** significant at .001, ** .01, * .05 level) Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, fieldwork Aug-Sept 2009, 10 CEE countries only, unweighted N=10,144. New Russia Barometer XVIII, A6, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601.

  11. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 11. HOW MUCH CHANGE IN RUSSIA SINCE BEFORE THE CRISIS ? Q. Do you get enough money from your main source of income to buy what you really need? 2007 2009 Difference (% respondents) Definitely enough 5 5 0 Just enough 20 20 0 Not quite enough 49 50 1 Definitely not enough 26 25 -1 Sources: New Russia Barometer XV, A6, fieldwork 13-23 April 2007, unweighted N=1,606; New Russia Barometer XVIII, A6, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601. Don’t knows excluded. ♦For a discussion of political effects, see R. Rose and W. Mishler, "The Impact of Macro-Economic Shock on Russians", Post-Soviet Affairs, 26, 1.

  12. RR-eccri-slw-.ppt 27.4.10 12. VARIABLE LISTS AGGREGATE-LEVEL (EU27) GDP change 2008/9, % -17.60 1.70 -5.89 4.06 % with mortgages 3 58 28 16 Sources: Eurobarometer 72.1, fieldwork Aug-Sept 2009, 27 EU countries, unweighted N=26,719. New Russia Barometer XVIII, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601; GDP change 2008/9: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/ statistics/ search_database (accessed 1 April 2010).

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