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Efficient Electrification Enabling Efficient, Affordable and Sustainable Solutions

This presentation discusses the evolution of the U.S. power system towards producing clean energy, evolving to a dynamic grid, and adopting electric end-uses. It explores the unlocked potential of renewable and battery cost trends and the impact on energy usage and carbon emissions. The presentation also highlights the electrification and load shapes of different sectors, as well as the benefits of smart appliances and engagement in demand response programs. Furthermore, it examines the technology-driven efficiency trend and the decoupling of economy and energy use in various industries. The assessment also includes the electrification of transportation and its market profile, critical trends, and the energy consumption of light-duty vehicles. The presentation concludes by emphasizing the efficiency, clean air, and economic and health benefits of efficient electrification in industry applications, indoor agriculture, and transportation.

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Efficient Electrification Enabling Efficient, Affordable and Sustainable Solutions

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  1. Efficient Electrification Enabling Efficient, Affordable and Sustainable Solutions Mid-West Consumers Association Annual MeetingDecember 12, 2018 Rob ChapmanVice PresidentEPRI

  2. What If… ELECTRIC LOAD ENERGY USAGE CARBON NATURAL GAS 32% 22% 20% 40%

  3. U.S. Power System Evolution… PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES

  4. U.S. Power System Evolution… PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES 36%

  5. Renewable & Battery Cost Trends: Unlocked Potential by 2025 Universal Solar PV: ~$0.02/kWh in high solar region; almost half the cost of rooftop solar Wind LCOE: ~ $0.03/kWh in high wind region Electric vehicle (~300miles): ~$7,000 decrease Commercial building batteries: 2-year payback Solar/wind + 4-6 hour storage cost = natural gas power plant 4100 Solar ($/kW) Wind ($/kW) Battery ($/kWh) 2100 1650 1400 1350 1000 No breakthrough technology needed! 850 200 100 2010 2017 2025 2010 2017 2025 2010 2017 2025

  6. U.S. Power System Evolution… PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES 88GW

  7. Electrification and Load Shapes… 2015 LOAD SHAPE 2050 LOAD SHAPE Space Heating Space Heating Non-Seasonal Non-Seasonal Cooling Cooling Vehicle Charging

  8. “Shared” Smart Appliance Enabled by an Integrated Grid Average energy draw profile of an electric water heater Intelligent set point control, charging and discharging decoupled Intelligent set point control to provide grid benefits kW Uncontrolled Water Heater (kWh) Controlled Water Heater (kWh) ~150GWh across 50 million U.S. homes Smart appliances will make it easier to engage customers in demand response programs… Hours

  9. Example: Nest’s “Rush Hour Rewards” Program During a rush hour, Nesttweaks the temperature tosave energy and keep youcomfortable. You can alwayschange the temperature. CRITICAL RUSHHOUR UNTIL 6:00 PM Your energy companyis starting a rush hour. MORE INFO SWING MW OF LOAD AUTOMATICALLY; NEST, CUSTOMERS AND UTILITY BENEFITS Source: https://nest.com/support/article/What-is-Rush-Hour-Rewards

  10. Power System Evolution… PRODUCE CLEAN ENERGY EVOLVE TO DYNAMIC GRID ADOPT ELECTRIC END-USES 21%

  11. The Technology Driven Efficiency Trend Decoupling of Economy and Energy Use Consumer Electronics Cathode Ray Tube Plasma LED Organic LED (OLED) 1990s • 27” CRT125W 2005 • 55” Plasma 500W 2010 • 56” LED 175W 2012 • 56” LED 100W 2013 • 55” Organic LED <30W

  12. Establishing Potential…Varies by End-Use Application INDUSTRY TRANSPORT BUILDINGS 30% 44% 26% PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY 96% 56% 61% PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL

  13. U.S. Electrification Assessment – Use of Energy 2015 - 2050 REFERENCE SCENARIO Quad BTUs 32% Electricity ~4930 TWh 40% Total NG ~37 Tcf 40% End-use Electricity generation/upstream Cars and LightTrucks Heavy-dutyTrucks Bus / Transit /Rail SpaceHeating Cool / Light /Appl. / Elec. BuildingsOther IndustryProcess Constr. / Ag. /Min. IndustryBoilers IndustryOther TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS INDUSTRY * Final Energy, excludes upstream and midstream energy use, e.g., power generation, oil and gas extraction, refining, and pipelines

  14. Critical Trends – Electric Vehicle TRANSPORT MARKET PROFILE SIGNPOSTS POLICY & RREGULATION AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE INCREASE IN MODEL OPTIONS EXPANDING PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE INNOVATION IN FAST CHARGING LI-ION BATTERY COSTS 44% PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY 96% PERCENTAGE OF FINAL ENERGY PROVIDED BY FOSSIL FUEL 2 5 6 1 3 4 4 5 2 3 1 6 66% ENERGY CONSUMED BY LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES

  15. Transportation Energy Efficient…Clean Air…Economic Benefits

  16. Industry Applications Energy Efficient…Clean Air…Health Benefits

  17. Indoor Agriculture Less Water…Less Pesticide…More Yield

  18. Efficient Electrification…Win…Win…Win $36T 5.3 Gross Domestic Product (In 2015 $) 4.6 4.3 Billion Tons CO2 61 51 Energy-related CO2 Emissions 47 Quads $4,530 $3,940 Total Final Energy Use $18T $2,720 $9T Reference Scenario Total Energy Cost 1987 2015 2050

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