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Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003

State Library of Victoria Public Libraries Seminar The Big Shift – business implications of demographic & cultural change for Melbourne. Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003. The push from the bush. Suburban culture emerged during the 20 th Century

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Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003

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  1. State Library of VictoriaPublic Libraries SeminarThe Big Shift – business implications of demographic & cultural change for Melbourne Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003

  2. The push from the bush • Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century • Provincial coastal culture now ascendant • Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers • Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002

  3. “We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have some fun” • Gold Coast 14,754 • Casey 10,073 • Brisbane South West 7,267 • Melton 5,934 • Brisbane North West 5,521 • Wyndham 5,463 • Blacktown 5,310 • Pine Rivers 5,136 • Baulkham Hills 4,527 • Brisbane South East 4,501 18. Melbourne 3,283 21. South Sydney 2,824

  4. Why population shifts are important to business 10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg: • 3,700 new suburban households, or • 6,700 new inner-city households • $70 million in new retail spending* • $25 million in new supermarket spending* • ½ a Kmart • One cinema screen • 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete *includes GST Population loss reverse these markets

  5. Growth hotspots in Melbourne Outside top 10 • Hume (4,367) • Greater Geelong (3,686) • Brimbank (3,371) • Mornington Peninsula (3,368) • Melbourne (3,283) • Whittlesea (2,766) Seachange impact on Bellarine & Mornington Peninsulas

  6. Segment hotspots across Melbourne • Boomers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn • Xers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn • Lone persons to CBD, Port Melbourne & Knox North • Never married men (25-34) to Whittlesea South, Yarra Ranges South West & Keilor • Never married women (25-34) to St Kilda, Richmond & Knox North

  7. Winners Losers Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach Palmerston Port Douglas Cairns Broome Townsville Whitsunday Yeppoon Leonora Hervey Bay Noosa Caloundra Gold Coast Geraldton Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Busselton Nowra-Bomaderry Narooma Augusta-Margaret River Denmark Victor Harbour Macedon Ranges Sorell

  8. Victorian cities are no longer the losers they once were 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Kalgoorlie-Boulder Burnie-Devonport Latrobe Valley Alice Springs Broken Hill Geraldton Mount Isa Goulburn Lismore Whyalla Grafton 0.0% Perth Dubbo Cairns Ballina Hobart Griffith Darwin Mackay Albany Armidale Orange Sydney Ballarat Brisbane Adelaide Sunshine Mildura Geelong Bunbury Bathurst Mt Barker Mandurah Bendigo Busselton Singleton Kempsey Townsville Gladstone Melbourne Gold Coast Bundaberg Tamworth Byron Bay Shepparton Newcastle Hervey Bay Bega Valley Launceston Maryborough Warrnambool Rockhampton Wollongong Port Macquarie Mount Gambier Burdekin (Ayr) Toowoomba Taree (Greater) Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Nowra-Bomaderry Nambucca Heads Albury-Wodonga Lithgow (Greater) Johnstone (Innisfail) Canberra-Queanbeyan Great Lakes (Forster) -1.0% Livingstone (Yeppoon) Eurobodalla (Narooma) Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) -2.0% -3.0% The real action outside Melbourne is focussed on lifestyle towns: Echuca, Torquay, Daylesford, Mansfield and the coast within a 90 minute drive of the CBD

  9. Detroit Pittsburgh Philadelphia Baltimore St Louis LA Phoenix Dallas Houston Fort Lauderdale Growing Declining Phoenix +950 Baltimore -85 Los Angeles +1,467 Philadelphia -68 Houston +582 Pittsburgh -55 Fort Lauderdale +368 Detroit -50 Dallas +366 St Louis -48

  10. Inter-city commuting on the rise … Australians pursue lifestyle options

  11. Chic-house city living Sydney 6,000 Melbourne 4,834 Brisbane 4,215 Perth 1,516 Canberra 872 Adelaide 618 Darwin 225 Hobart 7 Total 18,287 • Out with Neighbours … in with Friends, Seinfeld, Sex and the City, The Secret Life of Us • Out with the stubbie … in with elegant longneck boutique beer bottles with a designer label

  12. Sydney and Melbourne lead the big shift downtown

  13. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Population growth 1,500 1,000 500 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ -500 Age Group 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Population growth 1,500 1,000 500 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ -500 Age Group 20-somethings lead the charge downtown Sydney 2,810 more 25-29 year olds in 2001 than 20-24 year olds in 1996 3,013 more 20-24 year olds in 2001 than 15-19 year olds in 1996 Melbourne

  14. The ageing of the average Aussie bride Bridegrooms Xer brides 29 in 2001 Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971

  15. Professional working women demand their own drink eg Cosmopolitan Women want to work … and will make further gains by 2016 % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+ 1981 1998 2016

  16. No real change to male participation rates %

  17. Baby boomers just won’t die! 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Population 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year

  18. Total population by single year Boomer mid-point $40,000 350000 40 30 $35,000 54 300000 $30,000 25 ‘Rich’ live longer 250000 Pre-boomer’s slide $25,000 Born 1931 200000 $20,000 70 150000 $15,000 100000 $10,000 50000 $5,000 $0 0 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins

  19. Average income by age 1986 39 44 Average income by age 2001 43 48

  20. Trendy to be fifty … in 2021 20-something 50-something 2002 2.726m 2.385m 2021 2.975m 3.049m

  21. The Shakira conspiracy

  22. Why the fixation with Baby Boomers?

  23. … but the Swedes can’t surf! Australia Sweden

  24. Implications for business • Financial - later commitment to mortgages; savvy older consumers; succession planning; superannuation; blending work and life • Retail - shopping centre locations; shopping hours and flexibility; CBD supermarkets & convenience stores; bulky goods from household formation • Consumer Goods - boomers want ‘lite’, fast, healthy foods eg noodles; fashion to accommodate larger sizes; longnecks replace stubbies; European & Asian food influences • Motor vehicles - 4WD giving over to 20-something female cars, eg Honda Jazz, VW Polo • Pharmaceutical - staying young, fit and vital; shift to wellness; nicotine patches

  25. Upper East Side Kings Squash • Zipcode 10128 has 59,000 • people per sqkm • Kings Cross has 18,000 Dense Australians in 2001

  26. Further information & contact • Population Growth database 2002 – March 2003 • The Big Shift 2 – mid-July 2003 • Links: www.thebigshift.com; www.kpmg.com.au • Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; bsalt@kpmg.com.au • Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every second Thursday (next 12 June 2003) • KPMG Firstbuy – pick-up on your way out

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