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1. Leaving from nonlinear model ∫ р ( V )· f ( V ) dV

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1. Leaving from nonlinear model ∫ р ( V )· f ( V ) dV

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  1. International Webinar"Russia – wind power – business opportunities for the companies of Great Britain".September, 04,2014 г., Embassy of Great Britain Report«RussianWind Resources and Prospects of Russian Wind Power Market Development» Dr. Vladimir Nikolaev,Research & Information Center «ATMOGRAPH»Moscow, RussiaTel. / Fax: 8-499-744-41-63, E-mail: atmograph@gmail.com

  2. "ATMOGRAPH" has grown from and is the successor of TsAGI in the field of atmospheric research for aviation and aeronautics, as well as for wind power industry and works in the following fields of renewables• Propaganda and popularization of renewables, consulting service and provision the users with data and models for determination of wind and solar resources;• Determination of power efficiency of wind turbines, solar and hybrid cells in the territory of Russia, CIS and Baltic countries; determination of their competitiveness with traditional power sources; • Selection of optimum variants of power supply on the basis of renewables;• Execution of pre-feasible study and business plans for the WPP, solar and hybrid power stations;• International cooperation in the field of renewables; promotion of best WT and solar cells of native and foreign manufacturers;• Working out and edition of wind and solar resources Atlases, Catalogues and Manuals of renewable energy equipment and it’s practical use;• Participation in development of Russian legal and normative basis for renewables. The main users, customers and partners of "ATMOGRAPH" are:Russian Ministry on Industry, Ministry on Power Generation, Russian Power Agency, IFC, Joint Stock Companies “RAO ES of Russia”, “Inter RAO”, “RAO ES of Russian East”, “RusGidro”, “Lukoil”, research Institutes, power engineering companies, ets.The cooperation with Denmark since 1990-s: working out (with RISO) and issue of Russian Wind Atlas and the development some wind projects with Russian-Denmark Institute of Power Efficiency.

  3. Report subjects►Historical information ►Wind power resources of Russia ►Possible scenarios of wind power development in Russia ► Prospects of development of Russian wind power ►Problems and necessary conditions of the Russian wind power large-scale development

  4. Historical information ► Wind energyin the former USSRin 1950-s:Total installed capacity of WPP: ≈ 150 MWWind industry with production ≈10000 WT/year with the WT single capacity up to 100 kW and with WT total capacity > 150MW)► In 1960 State Plan was developed and accepted (targets≈ 7 GW by 1980) But, the accelerated development of nuclear power and large hydropower and shortage of financing prevented the implementation of the 7 GW plan► Next active period of wind power development in Russia – 1988 - 1995 The WT of average (100 – 300 kW) and large (1 MW) size were created and first experimental samples of the WPP were let out and build (Vorkuta – first-ever polar station of 2.5 MW; Kalmykia – WT of 1 MW, etc…) 1992 – the State plan was developed and accepted with the targets≈1GW by 2000 But, the destructive consequences of the “Perestroyka” and shortage of finances prevented the implementation of theplan 1994 – 1996 – the Law of RES development in Russia was prepared, approved by all levels of legislature, but was not signed by the President of RF

  5. Modern status of wind power in Russia Modern period began in 2006 – 2007 began generally with the: ● development of legislative base of RES (which isn't finished to the present) and ● studying at the modern level of Russian wind resourcesWind energyin Russiain 2014:Total installed capacity of working WPP: ≈ 10 - 12MWProduction : small series of WT (up to 30 kW) and absence of industry and production of middle and large class WTWind projects under design (majority of them with “ATMOGRAPH” participation): ● Krasnodar region(up to 700 – 1000 МW), ● Volgograd & Astrakhan regions,Kalmykia(up to1200 МW),● Kaliningradregion(up to200 МW),● Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Leningrad regions, Komi,Karelia(≈ 1000 MW),● Siberia(up to300 – 500 МW), Far East(up to600 МW), ● Region with decentralized electricity supply (wind-diesel PPup to150 МW)State Government Decree on28.05.2013 (implying < 3.6GWWPPin 2020) + + absence of any strategic plans for the Russian wind power after 2020

  6. Wind power resources of Russiais quite authentically studied ►High-precision methods of calculation of wind power potential and of power and economic indicators of WT and WPP in the territory of Russia, NIS-countries and Baltic Countries USSR are developed►Calculations were carried out and data on wind potential in Administrative Subjects of the Russian Federation and Russia in general are obtained►Maps of distribution across the territory of Russia of characteristics of wind power potential and efficiency of WT are constructed

  7. Development of ideas on Russian wind resourcesWASP (2000 ) datafrom 220 МSof USSRАТМOGRAPH (2009) data from 2200 МS + 147 АS →↑TsAGI (1992 г.) datafrom3600 МS in USSRМGU (2010 г.) Data from satellites а

  8. Russian wind resources ►According to our investigations WASPmodel systematically decreases mean wind speeds at 50 m up to25–30%,essentially restricting the scales of WPP usein Russia► Thus the most advanced international theoretical methodic WASP, based on meteo dates as well as Russian Wind Atlas published in 2000is not sufficiently reliablefor practical use in Russia

  9. АТМОGRAPH’smethodic for modeling of wind potential and WPP capacity РWTin the local point orregion in Russian territory The achieved level (13 – 16 % for the plain territories, 18 – 25 % for difficult terrain) The most reliable method of determining the of wind farm’s capacity on the territory of Russia is based on a mathematical model VБУРNРWPP=КAVA(n)·∫(Кмlosses· (ρ/ρо )·∫р(V) ·G(V) dV)dS= КТГ(n)·Кмlosses· К(V)NID·Σр(Vi)·G(Vi.)SвкVoi =1 где КAVA(n)– model of WPP’s availability (n –№of the year)– the function of technical iddlesКмlosses– the function of losses ; К(V)NID– the function of non ideal wind conditions and density variations ρи ρо ; р(V)– power curve ω (ΔVi.) иf(V)at the heigh of rotor axisHROTORis defined by rising of the bims boundaries ΔViusingdifferent models ofV(h)with conservation of frequency ω(Vi.)in bimsDispersionРWPPdue toω(Vi.) и f(V)increaseswithHROTORup to 100% atHROTOR>80mand depends on selection of the meteo station and accuracy ofV(h)modelling.The required by banks accuracy ofРWPP10% may be achieved with the mast measurements

  10. Theoretical highly reliable method for wind potential and WT capacity in the territory of Russia and NIS-countries (RIC “ATMOGRAPH”)Cardinal increase of reliability of a technique of modeling of wind potential and WT capacity in Russia (with a statistical error <14 –16 % for plain territories and<20 –25%– for a complex relief) is provided with new methodical approaches 1.Leaving from nonlinear model ∫р(V)·f(V) dV In the calculating ofРWT, using statistically established quasilinear relationsРWTиVAVR ∫р(V)· f(V) dV= ΣnАnРЕГ·VnСР+ВniРЕГ+О(пр.) 2. Instead the extrapolation of wind speeds from meteorological heightshметео (8–16m) on heightsHROTORWT (up to200 m)more exact interpolation is used based on the meteorological and aerologic data, depending on the accuracy of models V(hметео) andV at heights100–600 m 3. Instead modeling in WAsP method on the data of one nearest meteostation, wind poten-tial at heightshmetео и hаerois statistically modeling on the “cleared” data of all (upto50) meteostations located in the circular territory with radius of up to 300 km and all (up to 10) aerologic stations in the circle of radius of up to 500 – 600 kmaround the studied point 4. The distribution functions G(Vi)are defined statistically based on the data of aerologic and meteorological stations located in the circular territory with radius of up to 600 km

  11. Development and application of methods of reliable determination of V (h) The most accurate approximation of V (h) gives a three-layer model of the author's "sandwich" ● described above 100 meters by the cubic approximation of average seasonal upper air data at heights of 100, 200, 300, 600 m; ● in the layer 0-hmeteo V (h) is modeled by a logarithmic profile with the parameter zo and Uo modeled according to the procedure WASP ● In the layer hmeteo < h <100 m V (h) is approximated by a cubic spline with coefficients determined by the condition of smooth matching with the logarithmic profile V(h) and the cubic polynomial - at the upper limit (100 m)For the 28 upper air stations with additional data at heights 40 – 80 m model "sandwich“ provides the V(h) modeling up to 100 m with an accuracy of < 6.7% with the maximum of errors - at altitudes of 35 - 50 m “Sandwich" has allowed us to estimate the height of the applicability of the logarithmic V(h) profile hlog. The data from intermediate levels 40 – 80 m used as a criterion for the accuracy of V(h) modeling, and the required height hlog determined by minimizing the error calculations V(h) at an intermediate levels by parametric changing hlog. According to our study the use of of the logarithmic V(h) profile is correct for hlog <20 - 25 m

  12. Statistical modeling of the frequency function G(V) on the basis of empirical wind speed repeatvness calculated from the meteorological and aerologic data

  13. Raising ofV иωn(ΔVn), defind on the meteorological data to the heights of rotor exisHRotorusing extrapolation from 10–15 moften gives significant errors whenHRotor >35–40manddepends on the choice of meteorological stations and approximation of vertical wind speed profile V(h).But worst of all in this procedure is the absence of true criteria. The available aerologic data gives such criteria.The ways – to measure at heights with the help of meterological masts or to use the long-term aerologic data !!!Our approach : to use both of them

  14. Слайд 13а►New regularities and features of territorial and vertical distribution of average seasonal and annual wind speed (m/s) in the territory of Russia were investigated and determined.

  15. ►Regularities and features of territorial and vertical distribution of average seasonal and annual wind speed mean square deviations (m/s) in the territory of Russia were investigated and determined. It is established that they are distributed according to normal (Gaussian) law.

  16. ►Regularities of vertical profile of average seasonal and annual wind speed in different points of Russian territory It is established that they are essentially differ from logarithmic profiles

  17. Слайд 13б►Regularities and features of territorial and vertical distribution of average seasonal and annual specific wind capacity (W/m2) in the territory of Russia

  18. ►Regularities and features of territorial and vertical distribution of average seasonal and annual probability of wind calms (time % when wind speed is less than 4 m/s) in the territory of Russia

  19. ►Regularities and features of territorial and vertical distribution in the territory of Russia of average seasonal and annual power coefficient ( % )

  20. Estimation of WPP economical efficiency in the territory of Russia (electricity cost price for WT V 90 with Capex 1500 €/kW O&M = 18 €/MWh )

  21. Technical wind potential of RussiaDetermined on me the hypothesis on 10% land rent for the ”typical” WT V90 с HВК= 100 мand optimal placing of WT in the knots of regular triangl net with density WT N∆=1,155·(1000/n·D)2for 1 km2.WT life time (20 year) mean coefficients accepted equalКnid =0,81 and Кava =0,94. ► Mean calculatedfor Russia power coefficient for V 90 with tower 100 m is equal КИУМ ≈19,6%(counting the error of statistical modeling annual mean WT powerРWT=588±87kWh).► Up to 30 regions of Russia have wind potential, sufficient for the effective use due to international criteria (КИУМ>28%).► Total Russian technical wind potential is 11,5 times as much as the consumption of electricity in modern Russia. It’share in Central, North-West, Volzhsky and South Federal Districts with 73% of Russian population is equal ≈ 30% (≈ 3450 TWh). Thus,Russian wind resources have promising distribution across the territory for their industrial mastering. The required territory for WPP with power coefficientКИУМ > 30% and total annual energy yield up to 80–85 TWh is about 0,7% of total territory of Russia.

  22. Perspective regions of profitable WPP use in Russia up to2020(to the General Plan of WPP location in Russia, but our opponents insist on confirmation of our results).

  23. Possible scenarios of wind power development in Russia Prospective General Plan of the WPP location in the territory of Russiaaccording to the opinion of Russian Ministry of Power is necessary condition for the technical and economic grounding of wind power use in Russia.It defines possible rate of installation and total capacity of WPP, technical and economic effects and the main fields and shares of their use in different branches of industry, in different regions and in Russia as a hole, possible investors, etc.All these points are key conditions for the development of effective legal basis for Renewables in Russia.Methodology of General Plan’s working out was developed on new :► information basis (long term aerologic data jointly with traditional meteorologic data) ► technologies of analysis (PC, Data Bases, computer data processing)► approaches to research(statistical analysis, modeling and forecast)► ideasand established relations between objects of investigation(wind inpre-surface boundary layers, WT power indexes, economic conditions in Russia, WT economic indexes, ets.)

  24. Слайд 14 Suggested main principles of WPP General Plan working out1) To install WPP in places of electricity consumption and electricity deficit (the most of Russian regions)2) To install WPP in technologically admitted amounts (20% from the total capacity of region concerned) 3) The rates of installation are planning on the basis of world experience 4) To install WPP in places, where they are economically more effective than traditional PP (the lowest boundary in Russia give PP on natural gas which are considered to be the cheapest)Criteria of economicaleffectiveness : cost price of WT’s electricity(CEl) must be 18–20% less then these for PP on natural gas or on disel fuel by Formula for the prime cost of electricity estimation : NNСEl= [Capex+∑Opex (n)]/[КИУМ·Pном·8760· ∑ КAva(n)]n=1 n=1 5)Toinstall WPP in places with good infrastructure (road and electrical net) Basic – agricultural lands of Russia in 2008 (≈ 700 000km2 ) The most promising for WT installation are considered to be forest belts being as a rool in State property 6) Toinstall WPP in regions with sufficient wind resources guarantee WT’s power coefficient not less than 30%

  25. Comparison of the prime cost price of electricity produced by wind power plant and gas (GasPP) and coal (GasPP) power plants● With the increase of gas prices the prime cost of electricity of GasPP increased from 40 €/MWh in 2007 to 57–65 €/МWh in 2015, but for WPP it remaines constant at the level<60 – 65 €/МWhfor the power coefficient КИУМ >35 – 30%●WPP are more profitable than GasPP when power coefficient > 30% ● Replacing GаsPPbyWPP – the way of decreasing of the electricity prime cost price in Russia and=> the way of decreasing (or at list remaining) tariffs ● The effect of decreasing of the electricity prime cost in Russia increases with the WT’s share in total capacity of all electric PP

  26. Position of «АТМОGRAPH», grounded since 2008: Russia has all the possibilities (resources, infrastructure, ets.) for Wind Project of total installed capacity up to 7 GW in 2023 – 2024 and 35 GW in 2033 – 2035. The main reasons for the fulfilling of such Project are presented bellow Total capacity, GWEnergy yield, TWh Not less because loosing possibilities of : Not more because of lack of: ►Decree р-1 98.01.09fullfilment►legal and economic basis of WPP ►increasing of cheap electricity production ►finances ►boundingof electricity tariffs reduction► time for realization ►decreasing of СО2 emission►specialists ►economy of carbon fuel ►capacities of WT production ►increasing of profitfrom fuel export ►reliability of electric lines (20% limit) ►innovative development of Russia►wind resources

  27. World experience of wind power gross(2011 г. – 235 GW)With the State support the share of WT in total production of electricity ≈ 3–5% и 10–13%can be reached in6 – 7 и 10 – 12 yearsand this times due to the increase of production capacities are shortening _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________CountryYear of legacyResult in Native WTbasis acceptance 2011 год production_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ France 2004 г. ≈ 7 ГВт 10 %Turkey 2007 г. ≈ 1,8 ГВт 0 %Poland 2005 г. ≈ 1,6 ГВт 0 % Romania2009 г. ≈ 1,0 ГВт 0 % Chine 2006 г. ≈ 62 ГВт 80 %________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________The rate of wind power development in the country define the existence and effectiveness of legacy and economical support

  28. Слайд 19Accumulative values of incomes, expenditures and their balances during for the 40 year (up to 2050) period of WPP30 GW Project (with WT КИУМ > 30%) andGasPP of equal to WPP energy output 18 GW(КИУМ= 50%)with gas internal tariffs growth in Russia following inflation or up to equal in the return to export ones” WT balance with WT ElEnsaling cost = export cost of replaced gas WT balance reaches minimum (≈–12bln€) in 2025 and then growing up to 0 in 2032 (”long money”!)and up to ≈40 bln€ in 2050 WT balance with WT ElEnsaling cost = internal cost of replaced gas WT negative balance reaches minimum ≈16млрд€in 2030 and then growing up to 0 in 2036(”more long money”!)and up to ≈17bln€ in 2050 ►The source of covering of negative balance for GasPP – growth of the tariffs on ElEn ►The source of covering of negative balance for WPP –profit from gas export ► The main investors of WPP Project might be State + large gas and oil exporting Russian companies (GasProm, Lucoil, TransNeft. etc.) Energetic,ecological,economic and othereffects of the WT 30 GW Project 2020 2030 2020 2030 Total WPP capacity 7 GW 30 GWRussian cost of replacing gas 800mln€ 3,6bln€ КИУМВЭУ 30% 28% Export cost of replacing gas1,5 bln€ 6,8bln€ Annual ElEn production 17,5 80 ТWhСО2emission preventing9,6mlntons 43,5mlntons WPP sharein total ElEnv1,3% 5–7% Cost of СО2decreasing(20€/т)192mln€870mln€ Gas replacing 6bln m3 27bln m3

  29. Possible ecological effect of large-scale use (30 GW) of VPP in Russia At implementation of the scenario VPP of 30 GW in Russia total reduction of emissions of CO2 by 2050 due to replacement of part of power plants on gas or coal can make, according to calculations,1,09 or2,36 bln tons respectively, having reduced emissions of CO2 in energy industry of Russia to 8 – 10 %. . Analysis of perspective directions of large-scale use of VPP for power supply in energy industry, oil and gas branch, on transport, in agriculture Expedient scales of effective use of VPP make: – in energy industry – to 30 GW (production of relatively cheap electricity), – in oil and gas branch – to 21 GW (power supply of oil and gas transport and crafts, gas liquefaction), – on transport – to 17 GW (electrification of rail ways and highways) – in agrarian and industrial complex – to 2 GW (power supply of objects and technological processes)

  30. Realistic and optimistic Russian wind energy draft scenario (for the time being is discussed in Russian Power Ministry) Total wind power plants installed capacity (GW) and energy yield(TWh)

  31. Realistic and optimistic Russian wind energy draft scenario (for the time being is discussed in Russian Power Ministry)

  32. Problems and necessary conditions of the Russian wind power large-scale development ►Absence of positive State Government position – the main cause ofRussian wind power poor development What is necessary►Development of effective legal and normative basis of Russian wind power ►Creation of Russian production industry of the VPP of megawatt class with the annual productivity since 2020 up to 500 WT of 2 – 3 MW►Creation of Russian production industry of the VPP of middle size (300 – 600 kW) for a severe frigid climate (200 – 300 WT / year)►Creation of Russian production industry of the wind-diesel systems of middle capacity 100 – 5000 kW (200 – 300 units / year)►Development of effective technology of wind energy accumulation►Creation of the WPP exploitation infrastructure►Creation of several demonstration wind and wind-diesel power centers ►Training of professional staff for domestic wind power industry

  33. Perspective regions of profitable WPP use in Russia up to2020(to the General Plan of WPP location in Russia, but our opponents insist on confirmation of our results).

  34. Conclusions: ► Russia has al (except one)necessary conditions (resources, unsatisfied consumption, infrasructural, territorial, economical) for thelarge scale (up to30GWuntil 2035)andeconomically effective (with cost priceof electricity < 50€/MWh)use of WPP for industrial electricity production in essential scales (up to75–85TWh/year ≈ 6 – 7% ) ►The volumes of WT use for different brunches of industry may be as follows: in Power Generation – up to 30 GW, in transport – 17 GW, in oil and gas industry – 21 GW,in agriculture – up to 2 ГВт. ► Effect of WPP use in different brunches of industry and in Russia as a hole in case of realization of suggested project might be as follows: energetic–production of electricity in2030–2050up to5–6% on total consumption of Russia,total production of electricity for the period 2013 – 2050 – 1400 TWh, fuel savingfrom 2030 – 27 bln м3/year and for the total period 2013 – 2050 гг. – > 450 blnm3economical prise of gas for export(400$/1000 м3) – >180bln$ while the cost of the project WPP 30 GW –≈100bln$ecologicaldecreasing ofСО2emision up to 800mlnт (≈ 16bln $) ►Themain barrier of wind energy development in Russia – the absence of effective basis of legal and economical support for WPP.

  35. Research & Information Center “АТМОGRAPH” has the necessary information, methodic and computer technology for feasible study, working out, technical and economical ground, practical realization of regional and state programs and WPP projects of any size in Russian conditions and economical situation and actively participates in creation of large scale wind power engineering Thank you very much for attention We are open for cooperation: Tel./fax: 8-499-744-41-63, E-mail:atmograph@gmail.com

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