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Inland Empire Economic Forecast: Record Job Levels & Potential Recession Predictor

This economic forecast examines the growth and trends in the Inland Empire region, including record job levels, potential recession predictors, job quality, educational challenges, and the impact of healthcare and logistics on job growth.

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Inland Empire Economic Forecast: Record Job Levels & Potential Recession Predictor

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  1. Inland Empire Forecast . . . John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. U.S. Jobs At A Record Level

  3. 18.0% Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time 10.6% 7.4% 3.7%

  4. Inflation Worry 3.9% 2.3%

  5. Interest Rates: 4 Short Term Rate Increases 4.83% 3.20%

  6. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor 2 Year to 10 Year 0.30%

  7. California Job Gains/Losses

  8. Inland Empire Population Greater Than 25 of 50 States

  9. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth! Percent 2018e above 2007 I.E. CA US 16.1% v. 9.8% v. 8.2% Confession Forecast: 46,600 jobs 3.3% 5.5% Unemployment Actual: 49,433 Jobs 3.5% 5.1% Unemployment

  10. Job Quality

  11. Job Growth by Region 2nd Largest 2017 Absolute Job Gain in CA!

  12. Inland Empire Growth Fastest 2017 Job Growth Rate in CA!

  13. Unemployment Rates

  14. Poverty Falling With Job Creation 23.5% 16.4%

  15. Educational Challenge 46.3% 29.2%

  16. Payroll Headed for the Moon

  17. $ Payroll Spent $ Payroll Spent Moon Mining Corp. $ Payroll Paid

  18. Health Care Job Growth Strongest High Paying Sector 2011-2018 9.6% of Job Growth

  19. Median Health Care Pay: 2018 $62,363

  20. ACA Impact Health Care Demand & Quality of Life -60% Drop in Uninsured

  21. Residents Per Health Care Worker +26.0% More People 33.5 26.6 Sources: Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit; CA Employment Development Department

  22. 2018 Forecast: ACA Unknowns

  23. Logistics Job Growth Without Logistics growth, IE would still be in Recession 2011-2018 23.6% of Job Growth

  24. Median Logistics Pay: 2018 $47,946

  25. Skill Ladders Based on Education for PositionMedian Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2018

  26. E-Commerce 1.1% 9.6% 15.5%

  27. Port Container VolumesRecord Levels

  28. Net Industrial Absorption 21.9 million

  29. Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.9%

  30. Industrial Rates & Vacancies Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month Inland Empire $0.53 3.9% Ventura $0.70 2.5% Los Angeles $0.89 1.1% Orange $0.91 1.5% San Diego $0.90 4.1% Source: CB Richard Ellis

  31. Construction Locations

  32. Industrial Lease Rates Up 22.1% Up 76.7%

  33. ONT Airport Cargo Record Volume 18.2%

  34. Disappearing Available Space For Facilities

  35. 2018 Forecast: Space v. Regulators

  36. Manufacturing Job Growth 2011-2018 4.0% of Job Growth

  37. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay $54,800

  38. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

  39. CA Electrical Cost +74.6% +83.5% +135.4%

  40. Natural Gas A Bargain

  41. Marijuana?

  42. 2018 Forecast: Tariffs & CA Policy

  43. Construction Job Growth 2011-2018 12.4% Of Job Growth

  44. Median Construction Pay: 2018 Best Paying Blue Collar Sector $53,322

  45. Home Volume

  46. Home Prices FHA Conforming Loan Limit: $405,950 LA/OC is $679,650 +3.7% -10.2%

  47. Price Competition Highest Price Gaps In History

  48. Apartment Rates/Vacancy, 2018 Inland Empire $1,487 3.8% San Diego $1,978 3.9% Ventura $1,983 3.9% Orange $2,035 4.1% Los Angeles $2,267 4.0% Source: USC Lusk Center For Real Estate

  49. New Home Inventory

  50. 2018 Forecast: Supply v. Demand

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