Population Growth and Demography

1. Population Growth and Demography Chapter 4 of Richards and Waterbury Link to syllabus Link to WDI

2. Table 4.1 p. 73 (R&W). Demographic Indicators. 1970-2003

3. Population Growth in MENA Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment

4. Population Growth Rates: MENA and other Regions MENA had one of highest rates; it has been declining since 1990

5. Population Growth: countries

6. Population growth, non GCC

7. Figure 6-2 (Lynn text). Demographic Transition. Page 144 Source: Lynn, Economic Development Link to MENA_PopGrowth.xls

8. Note: the change in pop. growth is bigger than the change in birth rates There will be a growth in the working-age population, a generation later. Source: Can’t find the title, but the page numbers were: 19, 40

9. Algeria

10. Egypt

11. Lebanon

12. Yemen

13. Death Rates Regions Source: WDI data

14. Death Rates: Countries Source: WDI data

15. Birth Rates: Regional Averages Source: WDI data

16. BirthRates/1000

17. Fertility Rates: WDI

18. El-Tigani’s data on fertility rates for Egypt and Tunisia

19. Theories on Fertility Factors increasing birth rate: Mother:Better health of mother. Longer life. Better health care. Demand:Assumption would be that with higher income, more kids – Explained away by Becker as demand for quality. Factors decreasing birth rate: Mother:age at marriage, more equal divorce laws Demand: --Higher opportunity cost of mother’s time – education; --Higher cost of education and medical care for children. (Becker said demand for higher quality children) --Decreased need for farm work. --Existence of government programs: Social Security and health --Family planning programs, including and especially the availability of contraceptives (and abortion in some countries). --Changing social norms about desirability of large family, male/female children, and use of contraceptives.

20. Larry Summers on Education of Young Women In 1992, Larry Summers, then chief economist of the World Bank [later US Secretary of Treasury, and President of Harvard], argued that giving 100 girls one additional year of primary education would prevent 60 infant deaths and 3 maternal deaths, while averting some 500 births. This would have cost $30,000 for 100 girls, thus the social benefits alone of increased education of girls is more than sufficient to cover its costs—even before considering the added earnings power of this education. (Stephen C. Smith Case Studies in Economic Development)

21. Figure 4.4 p. 79 (R&W). Changes in Fertility: Morocco

22. Figure 4.5 p. 79 (R&W) Total Fertility and Education: Morocco, Palestine and Egypt Standard story: higher education, lower fertility.

23. Government Policy Orientations

24. Table 4.3 p. 82 (R&W). Policy on Fertility Level, MENA Countries.

25. Arab government policies on fertility and access to contraceptives Source: Faour (1989)

26. Schematic Illustration of the “Proximate” Causes of the Decline in Egyptian Fertility Suggests that the most important cause of the decline in fertility is the use of contraceptive methods Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt

27. Contraceptive Use by Region: % of Women 15-49 Years Old The percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception Source: WDI

28. Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception. It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only. (Source: WDI)

29. Contraceptive Use in Tunisia and Turkey

30. Decomposition of Change in Fertility Rate p. 51 Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 51

31. Regression Results Source: Faour (1989)

32. The 1994 Cairo Population Conference • Vatican and certain Muslim countries agreed on opposing the position in favor of women’s rights, family planning, and abortion, as well as neo-Malthusian alarms. • Compromise was to emphasize women’s status inside the family, downplay Malthus, while separating abortion from family planning. Source: Bowen, “Abortion, Islam, and the 1994 Cairo Population Conference,” IJMES May, 1997

33. EgyptDemog.pdf The next few slides come from the following source. Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

34. Fertility differentials Egypt Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

35. Contraceptive prevalence Egypt Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

36. Egypt Contraceptive use among married women Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

37. Contraceptive Prevalence, by age and number of living children Egypt Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

38. Desire to stop childbearing Egypt Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

39. Percentage Distribution of contraceptive users, by source of supply Egypt:

40. Demographic Data for Jordan

41. Jordan: Fertility Differentials

42. Jordan: Contraceptive Use Differentials

43. Jordan: Contraceptive prevalence, by age and number of children

44. Distribution of Modern Methods, by source of supply Jordan

45. Demographic Data for Syria

46. Syria: Fertility by residence and education

47. Demographic Data on Lebanon Studies in Family Planning, June 2001

48. Lebanon: Fertility Trends Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001

49. Lebanon: Fertility Differentials Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001

50. Lebanon: Current Contraceptive Use Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001