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Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team

UK Offshore Wind 2004 BWEA – 3 March. Flood and Sea Surge: The UK’s Coastline and Global Climate Change. Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team.

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Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team

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  1. UK Offshore Wind 2004 BWEA – 3 March Flood and Sea Surge: The UK’s Coastline and Global Climate Change Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils – NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI.

  2. Institute for Transport Studies School of Management Energy Research Unit Rutherford Appleton Laboratory TyndallConsortium

  3. TyndallObjectives • Advancing the science of integration • Developing responses • Motivating society

  4. Integrating Frameworks • Decarbonising Modern Societies • Adapting to Climate Change • Sustaining the Coastal Zone TyndallResearch Themes Theme 1 – a systems approach Theme 2 – a targets approach Theme 3 – a questions approach Theme 4 – a place-basedapproach

  5. RT4: Sustaining the Coastal Zone Vulnerability assessment Regional coastal simulator Governance & stakeholder dialogue Outreach and the Foresight process …To understand and anticipate key processes and interactions in the coastal zone as the necessary basis for flexible adaptation to climate change and altering environmental conditions

  6. A vulnerable coastline • Drivers of flood risk • Coastal erosion • Strategic assessments • Environmental futures • Integrated modelling • Uncertainties • Communication The coastline of south-eastern UK, assuming 6mof sea level rise in the wake of Greenland Ice Sheet melting

  7. Flooding – drivers Foresight 2004 …

  8. Flooding – responses the potential of responses to reduce flood risk Foresight 2004

  9. Vulnerability assessment STORM SURGES

  10. Change in 50-yr surge height(2080s, high emissions, high SLR) STOWASUS-2100 EU ENV4-CT97-0498 Source: Mikis Tsimplis Source: Jason Lowe, UKCIP

  11. Vulnerability and the NAO • Strong influence on European climate • Not necessarily linked to Global Change • Distinguishable on-ground parameters

  12. Tide and Surge model (0.5° x 0.33°, ~35 km) Tides + Wind stress + Sea Level pressure (1955-2000) Wakelin et al., 2003, GRL

  13. Annual NAO Index & Scottish precipitation relationships Precipitation is mean annual total ? Data source: Hadley Centre/CRU Time series = 1931 - 2000: ? Gridded data for Scotland Vulnerability and the NAO – Western Scotland Ferry disruptions have also been examined. J. Coll and S. Gibb

  14. Wave climates– North Norfolk Wave model (SWAN) for Norfolk STOWASUS shows <1% increase in the extremes. • Strong gradient in wave height from east to west • SLR brings effect of waves further inshore in areas with wide tidal flats • Cliffs (E) increasing wave height offshore increases wave height at coast • Tidal flats (W) increasing wave height offshore does not increase wave height at coast. •  Wind direction  change in longshore transport Source: Judith Wolf, POL

  15. A Regional Coastal Simulator Climate change and sea level rise Policy options Physical and habitat states An innovative decision-support tool for regional decision makers where climate change scenarios and policy response options are integrated with information on sediment transport, biodiversity, sea defences & socio-economic activities. Responses e.g. biodiversity

  16. 1. Nested Design Regional Sub-regional 2. Multi-Disciplinary Approach Sea Level Rise Local Biodiversity Sediment Coastal Defences Stakeholders 3. Feedback Loops Socio-economics Coastal Simulator Scientific Input Integrated modelling

  17. Virtual Reality GIS Simulator development Vulnerability Assessment Geomorphology Lincolnshire Sediment transport & cliff recession The political arena Biodiversity & Tourism Prototype Coastal Simulator MCDA & Stakeholders East Anglia Estuarine biogeochemistry Estuarine model Tiered Flood Risk Essex

  18. Coastal erosion Sediment supply from cliff Profile shape Cliff recession rate Sediment transport rate Shore orientation Wave conditions, sea-level rise and tide Beach volume and shape

  19. Governance and stakeholder interaction County Councils District Councils English Nature Environment Agency COASTAL MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES Flood Defence Committees Regional Development Authority Countryside Agency Chief Executive Planning Strategy Sustainability Partnerships Statutory Coastal Management Plan recreation navigation wildlife farming Consultative Forum Co-decisional planning commercial fishing local parishes land ownership Public Private Partnerships

  20. Tyndall°Centre for Climate Change Research Headquarters: School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ 01603 591375 www.tyndall.ac.uk

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