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Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case

Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case. Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B Valdes, Javier Gonzalez, Kate Baird , Luis J. Mata, Thomas Maddock III. Regional Precipitation Estimates. GCM Models. MF Recharge. ET. Local Recharge. Data “ Adaptation ”

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Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case

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  1. Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate ChangeThe San Pedro Basin Study Case Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B Valdes, Javier Gonzalez, Kate Baird, Luis J. Mata, Thomas Maddock III

  2. Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Data “Adaptation” Downscaling Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Methods

  3. 17 Global Climate Models: Mean & 4 extreme modelswettest, driest, hottest, coldest (*) (WM-95, ECH-395, CERF-98, CCSR-96) . (*) Using the regional mean. GCMs and Scenarios • 4 Emission Scenarios: • IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1 MES, A2 MES, B1 MES, B2 MES.

  4. Temperature projections: Scenarios A1 &A2 73.4 F 70 F 65 F

  5. Temperature projections: Scenarios B1 &B2 70.7 F 68 F 65 F

  6. Rain projections: Scenario A1 MES

  7. Rain projections: Scenario A1 MES

  8. From RAIN to RECHARGEUsing Anderson (1992): Experimental Regression Method For each of the 4 scenarios

  9. Challenges & Ongoing Work

  10. Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Data “Adaptation” Downscaling Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Methods

  11. Yearly estimates 5x5 deg. latlong 1/8x1/8 deg. latlong

  12. Evolution of mean Annual Precipitation (2000-2100)Scenario A1MES, Mean GCM projection

  13. Key questions: • How is climate change affecting SEASONAL and SPATIAL patterns ? • How can we quantify/model these changes ? • Key needs: • Accurate methods to quantify seasonal recharge • Inclusion of temperature effects on evapotranspiration • Compare effects with different basins (regimes)

  14. Evolution of mean Annual Precipitation (2000-2100)Scenario A1MES, driest model CCSR96

  15. Questions?

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