Things to do while you’re waiting for luck

1. Things to do while you’re waiting for luck Thomas S. Krieshok University of Kansas tkrieshok@ku.edu

2. Members of the A (Adaptability) Team: • Abby Bjornsen Benjamin Rutt Brian Cole Carrissa Huffman • Chris Ebberwein Craig Beeson Dan Cox Eric Lyche • Jeff Rettew John Jacobson Kate Sirridge Kirsten Wells • Kristin Rasmussen Maggie Syme Mary Krogmann Matt Robinson • Melanie Noble Mike Black Rhea Owens Rich Scott • Robyn McKay Sarah Brown Selby Conrad Shawn Bubany • Thomas Motl Wendy Shoemaker Alex Vuyk Erik Clarke • Brittany Stewart Aaron Gates Craig Warlick Emily Overland Michael Rosen          Michael Ternes

3. The readiness is all. Shakespeare

4. Expected Utility (EU) theory • The Classic picture of human decision making • The bulk of our vocational interventions are based on this model

5. Current picture of human decision makers • Informed by evolutionary psychology, cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and social psychology • Amalgam of brain systems • Cobbled together • To adapt to evolving environmental demands

6. The strongest knowledge – that of the total unfreedom of the human will – is nonetheless the poorest in successes, for it always has the strongest opponent: human vanity. Nietzsche, Human, All Too Human

7. An Extremist Position • Three frightening things about the way we have traditionally thought about decision making.

8. An Extremist Position: • a. It doesn’t matter, because you don’t get to keep your decision anyway. • b. We can’t help you choose rationally, because that’s not how people make choices • c. Opportunity Costs: The matching model implies more control than you really have, and keeps you from doing that which you should really be doing (engaging).

9. Radical Argument 1: • You don’t get to keep your decision anyway. • Even if there was a time when matching did work, today’s world of work is so turbulent that we can no longer count on keeping our match.

10. Radical Argument 2: • We can’t help you choose rationally, because that’s not how people make choices

11. Deciding is not an issue -- when it's easy • But, for our clients it's not easy

12. Consensus: • Human decision making is juicy

13. contributors to DM problems • Chaos • The nature of being human

14. What is it that controls human behavior?

15. “Our modern skulls house a Stone Age mind” Cosmides & Tooby • Suited for life on the Savannah • Modular brain yields different systems for wanting and liking

16. We are of two minds • System 1: Intuitive, non-conscious mind -related to “older” functions of the brain • System 2: Rational, often conscious mind -related to “newer” functions of the brain -especially language

17. CONSCIOUSNESS • Consciousness is limited • 20 bps processor • Information processed is vast • 11,000,000 bits per second

18. Should I or shouldn’t I? Yes! No! Maybe! Maybe not….. Decision Grid • Imagine you are now required to make that choice, based on the weights/outcomes • Is this what you want to do? • Limits of rational strategies

19. Why not rely on rational strategies alone? • Literature suggests that • 1) we aren’t all that rational • 2) we don’t actually use rational strategies most of the time, even when we think we do • 3) there are benefits to non-rational strategies • 4) rational strategies still involve guessing what will happen if we pursue various courses of action

20. Bill is 34 • He is intelligent, punctual but unimaginative and somewhat lifeless. In school, he was strong in mathematics but weak in social studies and humanities. • Which one of the following statements is most likely? • (a) Bill plays in a rock band for a hobby. • (b) Bill is an accountant and plays in a rock band for a hobby.

21. Conscious thought is very expensive • Conscious processing uses valuable mental energy • Drivers given mental puzzle • Cell phone use

22. Driven to Distraction • Naturally, when a driver diverts attention from the road, to the radio, to talk to a passenger or check his or her phone, that is attention not being paid to traffic. • Atchley’sresearch has shown that texting while driving requires so much attention it is about a 2,400 percent increase in accident risk. Talking on a hands-free cell phone is about a 500 percent increase and driving while drunk is actually lower than both, at 400 percent.

23. Is Intuition in Charge? • Our capacity for rationality is constrained. Simon (Nobel Prize 1955) • Which leads to satisficing • a crude application of reason • We settle for an adequate selection • as opposed to the optimal one.

24. Unconscious (Intuitive) Decisions • Automatic • But still usually satisfying

25. The Elephant and the Rider (Haidt) • The elephant (Bargh’s ‘Wise Unconscious’) • Makes most day to day decisions • The rider • Has some input, but not as much as we think

26. Interpreter Module (Gazzaniga) • Fabricates what must be happening

27. Intuition runs the show But depends on good experience (Klein vs. Kahneman 2009) • Good intuitive decisions are possible • when there are consistent learnable patterns underlying outcomes • But…People do not have a strong ability to distinguish correct intuitions from faulty ones

28. We experience the world as conscious choosers • Either not that way at all • Or at least much less conscious authority than we believe • Anti-Introspectivist view of career decision making (Krieshok, 1998)

29. The heart has its reasons, that reason knows not of PascalThere’s someone in my head, but it’s not me. Pink Floyd

30. Cognitive science and neuroanatomy • Our preferences and desires are not necessarily dependent on conscious awareness • Brain’s left hemisphere fabricates reasons for behavior, largely without referencing right hemisphere’s experience Seriously? It’s because she smells good! Stop ignoring me! I like her because she is smart and funny and quotes Nietzsche

31. Soelberg’s 1967 study with MIT grads • We identify a ‘favorite’ early on • We engage in an ‘exercise in prejudice’ to ensure our favorite wins • We only commit once we have an adequate rationalization

32. Two things to make better decisions Soelberg, 1967 • 1) Get feedback from people you trust • 2) Intentionally avoid making decisions

33. What we imagine and expect leaves out inconvenient truths. • Rational choices can lead to disappointing outcomes • Miswanting: We think something will make us happier than it does. We avoid things we expect will be difficult based on faulty assumptions. • Introspective access to higher order cognitive processes is limited

34. Problems in Forecasting the future (Gilbert) • 1. Consciousness only sees a movie about reality • Akin to Gazzaniga’s interpreter module. • In the guessing we are subject to errors • 2. We overestimate our ability to get things done in the future • 3. We underestimate our resourcefulness for dealing with obstacles

35. Mark Twain: • It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. • It’s what you know for sure that ain’t so that gets you into trouble.

36. The Problem of Language • We are Enslaved by language • Language forces us to make sense • even when sense is not possible • No User’s Manual to tell us when to use it

37. Now what do we do? • We think we know why we make decisions, but we don’t. Most decision making is subconscious. • Conscious processes are subject to confirmatory and disconfirmatory biases, selective attention, and distortions • Plus, we often push people to make decisions prematurely • So should we just give up trying to help?

38. A Trilateral Model of Adaptive Career Decision-Making • Adaptive Career Decision-Making • A state of affairs in which decision-making is optimized through the mutual input of • Reason, Intuition, and Engagement. Reason System 2, Rational System, Reflective System. Engagement Activities that increase one’s fund of information and experience. Intuition System 1, Experiential System, Reflexive System.

39. The Case for Engagement “… taking part in behaviors that contribute to the career decision-maker’s fund of information and experience.”

40. The Case for Engagement • Engagement = Exploration + Enrichment • Exploration: When in the face of a transition • Enrichment: When no transition is imminent

41. Engagement • In a world where nothing is predictable, and even our own decisional machinations are hidden behind a veil, put your money on getting experience (engagement).

42. Examples of Occupational Engagement 42 Studying abroad Being involved in organizations Talking to anyone at anytime about anything Volunteering Job shadowing Traveling Reading a section of the newspaper you normally don’t

43. Anti-Engagement MessagesStudents Hear 43 • Choose a major by the time you have 45 credit hours • You already have a good paying summer job, • don’t take an internship that pays less • Study Abroad will only extend your time in college • Your school work is your job, • So don’t volunteer or get a part time job. • Go take that test, it will tell you what to do. • All you can do with a history degree is teach • The most important thing is your grades

44. The role for rational thought • Rationality leads up to and away from Intuitive decisions

45. The role for rational thought • Work within the limits of consciousness • Use conscious planning to put things in motion • especially how NOT to decide. • Use reason to plan engagement intentionally • Use reason to frame the decision making process

46. Wisdom-driven Decisions • We make better decisions when we are coming from our Whole self, our Wisdom self, rather than from our feared notions. • Under normal circumstances, the things that play into our decisions unconsciously may be more our fears than anything else. • So one of the things we need to do rationally, is to tap into our intuition in a healthy positive way, and listen to our fears (our negatively energized non-conscious processes) and bring those into the light so we can make good decisions.

47. Our firmest conclusion: • Be Engaged!!! • Better chance your intuition will be expert • Be prepared! (always be engaged) • Ebberwein’s study of laid off workers

48. Ridiculous Argument III:Opportunity Costs • The matching model implies more control than you really have, and distracts you from doing that which you should really be doing (engaging).

49. Chaos in the world of work • Science lets us predict on a grand scale • Can predict 10% unemployment • Not so much at the elemental level • Which workers will lose their jobs • Which businesses or industries will survive

50. Understanding & Believing in chaos is important • Make your job loss less personal • Make your job search less trusting in a fair system of job hunting